Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wright City, MO

SHORT TERM
(Through Late Sunday Night)
Issued at 247 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

A deepening shortwave can be seen in water vapor imagery digging into the Southwest as another spins over the California Baja. Broad southwesterly flow ahead of these features is sending subtle disturbances aloft over the Southern Plains, Mid South, and into the Ohio Valley. Frontogenesis based at 850 mb stretches across the Mid South and tilts northward over the Middle Mississippi Valley with vertical extent, favoring our ongoing snowfall to continue as moisture overrides the Arctic air mass. There have been efficient pockets of snowfall rates with this first wave of snow, with localized areas seeing rates of 0.5-1"/hr at times. This has led to accumulating snowfall area wide, with the greatest amounts having fallen along and south of I-70 thanks to greater moisture and slightly better forcing.

This forcing will wane slightly this evening leading to lower rates and more spotty snowfall. This is a slight change from prior forecasts, when more of a pronounced lull was forecast. However, this is not expected to have a significant impact on forecasted snowfall amounts. However, what will has had a significant impact is an increase of about 0.1" QPF among guidance consensus with the second wave of snowfall that will being moving into the region later this evening and continue through Sunday afternoon. This second wave of snow will be forced by the aforementioned northern and southern shortwaves phasing together over the Southern Plains, inducing cyclogenesis over the Lower Mississippi Valley as they do so. The result is that snow will once again ramp up in intensity across the region, with the primary focus for snowfall being over the southeastern 2/3rds of the CWA

As this surface low gradually tracks northeastward tonight into Sunday morning, robust dynamic lift via jet streak coupling in the upper levels of the atmosphere will support a rapid deepening of the low as it passes southeast of the CWA The track of the 850mb low through the Missouri Bootheel places much the southeastern 2/3rds (roughly the Winter Storm Warning area) in favorable placement for robust moisture transport via the TROWAL and then the later effects of the deformation zone, climatologically favoring heavy snowfall.
Model soundings continue to show a deep isothermal layer within the dendritic growth zone among robust lift through Sunday morning, supporting snowfall rates at times reaching and exceeding 1"/hr within the Warning area. This will cause conditions to rapidly deteriorate and make travel difficult if not impossible. These more intense rates will diminish during the late morning and afternoon, with snow expected to depart the CWA to the east by late afternoon/early evening.

After this event is all said and done, impressive snowfall totals are forecast for locations within the Warning area. Generally along the I-44 corridor in Missouri and the I-70 corridor in Illinois and points south, confidence is high in an additional 6-10" of snowfall, with confidence increasing in amounts reaching the higher end of that range thanks to the increase in QPF. Given the QPF and favorable thermodynamics and forcing, pockets of up to or greater than 12" can not be ruled out. Further north-northeastward, but still within the Winter Storm Warning, generally an additional 4-6 is expected, with amounts of 1-3" within the advisory area. In fact, portions of the Advisory may only get snow with the ongoing round today, but confidence in that is too low to make any headline changes right now. Regardless of snowfall amounts, confidence in widespread impacts is high, as snowfall will readily accumulate on all surfaces and be difficult to remove and treat given the bitter cold. Driving home this point, most locations as of this writing have reported no more than 1" of snowfall with multiple accidents having already occurred. Unless absolutely necessary, travel is not advised through Sunday. The combination of treacherous travel and bitter cold will make for life-threatening conditions for those exposed to the elements.

As the low continues to depart the region Sunday night, deep northwesterly flow will send a reinforcing shot of Arctic air into much of the Midwest, with the tight pressure gradient from the departing low serving to enhance northerly winds. This will drive wind chill values late Sunday night into Monday morning to around - 15 degrees for the entire area. As such, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for this portion of the period.

Elmore

LONG TERM
(Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

At the start of the extended period, an Arctic high will likely be situated to the southwest of the region leading to weak northwesterly surface flow to start the day on Monday. Given the forecasted placement of this high and the expected snowpack over the area, most, if not all locations will start the day with temperature readings below zero. These bitterly cold temperatures coupled with the light northerly winds will lead to morning wind chill values ranging from -10 to -20 across the area, which is when a Cold Weather Advisory will be in effect for the entire area until noon on Monday. The Arctic high will be slow to move, and as a result, all locations will struggle to reach the mid teens on Monday with the continuation of northerly flow and fresh snowpack, despite what is expected to be a mostly sunny day. The Arctic high will slowly push southeast, eventually making it to the lower Mississippi River Valley Monday night, when southerly return flow at the surface will commence, helping to keep temperatures slightly above zero.

For the remainder of the extended, there will be several mid/upper- level shortwave disturbances that traverse around the base of a persistent upper-level trough over southern Canada. The first shortwave will be dropping southward across the Upper Midwest Monday night along with the weak and dry attendant low-level cold front.
This front is currently anticipated to drop through Iowa on Tuesday, placing our region under increased southerly flow during the day when solar insolation is also aiding the warmup. With the setup described above, high temperatures on Tuesday could reach the upper 20s with even some low/mid 30s south of I-70. However with the widespread snowpack, which could potentially be significant in some areas, the result would be a colder solution with highs staying in the 20s areawide. The passage of the mid/upper-level shortwave and its attendant cold front Tuesday night will result in a slightly colder day on Wednesday with highs expected to be in the 20s areawide. A secondary mid/upper-level shortwave disturbance will drop in from the north right behind the first one, with the attendant low-level cold front reaching the area Wednesday night bringing another reinforcing shot of Arctic air. The strength of this Arctic airmass is still uncertain this far out, but current indications are that the remainder of the week and into the weekend will be well-below climatology with highs in the teens/20s and lows around zero/single digits.

Precipitation chances next week are limited with the next chance centered around Wednesday evening, when the LREF has a 20-30% for QPF >0.01". Our current forecast, which is the latest deterministic NBM, only includes slight chances across west-central Illinois with the rest of the area remaining dry. Given how far out this is and that the LREF is only slightly higher, this was left unchanged for this forecast package. However, it is valuable to note, anything that may fall Wedneday into Wednesday night would be frozen given temperatures will be well-below freezing, so any trends in model guidance will continue to be monitored into the week.

Peine/Elmore

AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Confidence is high in impacts continuing at all local terminals through the period as a winter storm slides through the region.
Relatively lighter storm, as a part of the first wave of snow with this system, is bringing reductions in visibility to all local terminals. This first wave is more intermittent, so visibility may bounce around more than what is indicated in the current TAFs. A brief lull in the greater snowfall rates is expected this evening before a second wave moves through the region. This wave will bring heavier snowfall than the first, mainly to KSUS, KSTL, and KCPS for a period of time early tomorrow morning. Similar conditions can't be ruled out at KCOU, KJEF, and KUIN, but confidence is low in this occurring right now. This snowfall will readily accumulate on all surfaces, with KSUS, KSTL, and KCPS seeing the greatest snowfall totals by the time snowfall begins to wind down tomorrow afternoon.

Elmore

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to noon CST Monday for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO- Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO- Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO- Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO- Washington MO.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Shelby MO.

IL...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for Bond IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL- Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL- Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to noon CST Monday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL- Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL- Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for Adams IL-Brown IL.