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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chapman, KS

February 8, 2025 1:56 PM CST (19:56 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:24 AM   Sunset 5:58 PM
Moonrise 1:51 PM   Moonset 4:56 AM 
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Area Discussion for Topeka, KS
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FXUS63 KTOP 081719 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1119 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2025

KEY MESSAGES

- One more day of near average temperatures today before colder air arrives by Sunday, and colder still by Tuesday.

- Confidence continues to increase in accumulating snow brought by two separate systems Monday through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 431 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2025

Zonal flow has turned a little bit more southwesterly aloft with a subtle perturbation in the central Rockies ahead of a shortwave trough near the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, low pressure is centered in southeast CO with its warm front extending into the Red River Valley. A cold front has moved through the northern half of our area, coming out of central NE. Between the two boundaries, low- level moisture has been slow to move north as dew points have remained in the 20s for most of the area except east central KS. The deeper moisture can also be seen via nighttime microphysics satellite where lower stratus is noted along and south of the KS Turnpike. Have maintained slight chance PoPs in that area for the next few hours, where there may be just enough lift within the stratus to squeeze out some drizzle. Further north, winds have shifted north, signaling the beginning of isentropic downglide and dry air advection and the end of any precip chances. Have removed any mention of freezing drizzle this morning as a result. The sfc cold front should be through the entire area soon after sunrise, bringing an end to any drizzle in east central KS as well.

The incoming dry air will scour out the cloud cover, leading to clearing skies from west to east throughout the day. Highs should still reach around seasonal values in the upper 30s to mid 40s. With CAA continuing into tomorrow, morning lows look to start out in the low to mid 20s before temperatures only rise to the mid to upper 30s for the afternoon. There is a subtle embedded wave within the flow aloft that looks to pass through just north of the area from CO into NE overnight tonight into Sunday, and some CAMs are showing light reflectivity associated with this in northern KS Sunday morning.
However, low-level dry air should preclude any of this from reaching the ground with the main impact from this wave being high clouds, which could further act to keep temperatures down.

Attention then turns to the more active pattern developing for the work week. On Monday, the aforementioned shortwave trough is progged to deepen across the southwestern US with frontogenesis developing in the mid-levels ahead of it. Forecast soundings show some low- level dry air to overcome initially during the afternoon, with the profile becoming deeply saturated within the DGZ by evening. There still are two distinct rounds of snow forecast, as there should be a break Tuesday afternoon before the next one comes late Tuesday night through Wednesday. This second round looks to be driven more by the upper trough as it swings across the region with more of an impact than the first. Probabilities for at least 1 inch with the first system (Monday night into Tuesday) are 30-60%, but once you get to 4 inches, probabilities drop to 20-30%. Think 1-3" seems reasonable, though locally higher amounts would be possible within any heavier bands from the frontogenesis. For the second system (late Tuesday into Wednesday), probabilities of at least 4 inches are generally higher (40-80%), leading to higher confidence for travel impacts.

Snow should come to an end by early Thursday. It should also be noted that colder air comes with the first system, leading to below average temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. Highs are forecast in the teens to 20s with lows getting progressively colder each day, possibly near zero by Thursday morning. Dry weather returns Thursday, and a quick look at the extended forecast shows potential for another system late Friday into Saturday. It is much too early to get into specifics with that, but it does look like winter is here to stay for a while.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1117 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2025

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with gusty northerly wind diminishing around sunset.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.


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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KFRI MARSHALL AAF,KS 17 sm61 minNNW 20G2510 smClear37°F18°F44%30.14

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Topeka, KS,





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