Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chapman, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 209 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A perturbation diving south across the central CONUS has lead to increased mid and high cloud cover today. This has slowed warming even with downsloping westerly winds, but highs have still climbed 15-20 degrees above normal into the 50s. A cold front currently located in southern Nebraska will push through the forecast area through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening with large-scale ascent and saturation above 800mb generating showers along and behind the boundary. Not expecting much rainfall, but CAMs show the potential for some gusty winds within these showers. Instability will be weak, but some steepening of mid-level lapse rates could support an isolated rumble of thunder as well. Northerly winds strengthen behind the boundary overnight, becoming gusty Wednesday morning. Gusts of 25-35 MPH in the morning will gradually weaken through the afternoon, but gusty winds will still overlap with relative humidity values of 25-40 percent, creating elevated fire danger for a couple of hours. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 30s to low 40s, although the gusty winds will make it feel cooler. There continues to be a signal in guidance for some isolated to scattered precipitation Wednesday morning given steep low-level lapse rates and perhaps even some weak instability. Best chances for this appear to be across north- central and central Kansas where better low-level moisture resides. Temperatures are above freezing in the lowest 2kft, so the most likely precipitation type is rain, but could see some snow mix in if the column cools faster than guidance suggests.

Surface ridging quickly slides south of the area Wednesday night and the return of southerly winds on Thursday will bump temperatures back into the mid 40s across far eastern Kansas and into the low 50s across north central Kansas. A couple of potent perturbations shunt a pair of cold fronts through the area late this week: the first Thursday night and the second on Saturday. Strong northwest winds approach advisory levels on Friday with sustained winds of 20-30 MPH and gusts of 30-40 MPH. Winds relax somewhat on Saturday, but stay breezy with gusts of 20-30 MPH forecast. Afternoon relative humidity values of 25-40 percent could lead to elevated fire weather concerns both days, but Friday looks more concerning at this point.
Temperatures will fall back below-normal on Saturday when highs may not reach freezing. There could be some light precipitation with these passing waves/fronts as well, but confidence in any impactful amounts is very low. Spread in temperatures has narrowed for Sunday, but there remains a long tail on the cool side of the distribution. While forecast highs from the NBM are in the 40s, only 30-50% of GEFS, ENS, and GEPS members have highs exceeding 40 degrees on Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 522 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Light rain showers will be the main short term impact at the terminals this evening, mainly for KTOP and KFOE. Added tempo groups for light rain further east as this remains the best chance for any consistent precipitation hitting the ground.
Rain chances end around midnight with northerly flow persisting for the remainder of the period. Wind gusts will become evident around 8-9 AM Wednesday morning, peaking around 25-35 mph through the afternoon. These should begin to weaken near the end of the period.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 209 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday afternoons.

North winds increase overnight and become gusty Wednesday morning with gusts of 25-35 MPH. These gusts will gradually weaken through the afternoon from north to south, but could still be gusting at 20-25 MPH south of Interstate 70 when relative humidity values are at their minimum (30-40%). The window for very high fire danger appears to be limited to an hour or two during the mid-afternoon before winds diminish and relative humidity recovers. Friday looks to be a more concerning fire weather day.
Northwest winds sustained at 20-30 MPH and gusts of 30-40 MPH are forecast with minimum relative humidity values of 30-40 percent. Slightly weaker winds are forecast on Saturday, but gusts of 25-30 MPH and afternoon relative humidity of 25-35 percent could still create elevated fire weather conditions.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.