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FXUS63 KTOP 042247 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 547 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

AVIATION UPDATE

DISCUSSION
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Key Points:

- A few showers/storms possible in far east-central KS this afternoon and evening...Severe weather is not expected.
- Cooler air moves in by Friday with the first Freeze/Frost possible in spots Saturday morning.
- Minimal chances for precip over the next week.

Cooler temperatures and weak CAA has been the main story behind a southeastward-moving cold front today. Temperatures across the area have reached the low to mid 70s by 1 PM, with areas south and east of the Turnpike potentially reaching the low 80s by this afternoon.
The frontal boundary has fully moved through our warning area and currently sits across southeastern Kansas where a few showers and storms are expected to form later today and tonight. All of this has been in response to a longwave trough ejecting into the central Plains. The trough axis still remains off to the west and will slowly move towards the area over the next 24 hours. This will keep much of the upper-level lift to out south and east and keep majority of the warning area dry and cool. As mentioned before, a few showers and storms will be possible in far southeastern portions of the CWA later today and this evening. The best instability and lapse rates conducive for thunderstorms will likely be just south of the area and near the frontal boundary, so not expected too much coverage in precipitation if anything can get going. Precipitation should move east of the area by Thursday morning.

By Thursday afternoon, temperatures will again warm into the mid to upper 70s across the area before a secondary cold front moves in from the north later in the afternoon and evening. This front should bring much cooler air behind it as a deeper upper low moves in from central Canada. Moisture along this frontal boundary does not look great, but sufficient upper-level lift associated with the digging trough could be enough to squeeze out some rain showers Friday morning and into midday. Temperatures Friday will struggle to get into the 60s, especially north of I-70 as strong CAA persists during the day. Strong surface ridging will build into the area early Saturday morning, decreasing winds and giving way to clear skies.
Temperatures Saturday morning will reflect this with lows in the low to mid 30s! RH values will hover near 80-90 percent around sunrise Saturday AM, so widespread frost/freeze will become possible.
Temperatures will warm into the 60s by the afternoon with light winds and clear skies.

By Sunday and into next week, the low level ridge axes shift to the east of the area, returning flow back to the south. Mid-level ridging will building in from the west leading to temperatures warming back up above average. Expect temperatures getting back into the mid 80s by next week. No widespread precipitation will be expected in this period until a system later in the week begins to increase PoPs.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 547 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

The surface front has stalled out about 75 miles SE of FOE. With a drier airmass north of the boundary, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail with weakening winds through the evening. An agitated CU field along the front support the idea for isolated to scattered convection along the front this evening. This activity should remain SE of the terminals.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.

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Topeka, KS,