Chapman, KS Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chapman, KS

April 14, 2024 3:34 AM CDT (08:34 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:49 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM
Moonrise 10:08 AM   Moonset 1:12 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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FXUS63 KTOP 140524 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1224 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s Sunday, approaching record values.

- Strong system brings storms, including the potential for severe storms, to the area Monday evening into Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Watervapor satellite loop shows a couple of minor perturbations moving across western Kansas and another in central Nebraska. Some higher mid level clouds have developed across southern Nebraska and far northern Kansas this afternoon. Forecast soundings continue to show dry air below 600-500 mb layer with around 400-500 J/kg of elevated cape this afternoon. WIth the very dry low levels any precipitation will likely evaporate, so have removed any mention of isolated showers/thunder for late afternoon and early evening and models suggest modest forcing for ascent to be focused in Nebraska.

The lower boundary layer will remain mixed tonight with gusty winds subsiding this evening and overnight as a surface trough moves into the area. Temperatures tonight will remain mild with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

Sunday will see another very warm day with near record high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s expected as deep mixing occurs up to 600mb and 850mb temperatures of 20 to 22 degrees Celsius mix down. Light winds will preclude elevated fire danger on Sunday as afternoon relative humidity drops to around 10 to 25 percent across north central and parts of northeast Kansas.

The western CONUS trough is still forecast to move slowly eastward into the Rockies on Monday with a southwest flow across the southern and central Plains. Flow off the Gulf increases on Monday and Monday night while perturbations eject out of the trough across Kansas.
Better chances for convection (70-80%) are expected overnight Monday as convection that develops across western Oklahoma and southern Kansas tracks northeast into the CWA Some isolated convection could occur late Monday afternoon and early evening if the capping inversion is able to be overcome. Increasing forcing for ascent is forecast Monday night into Tuesday as the mid level trough progresses into Kansas. Line segments and clusters of storms are expected with hail and winds the main hazards. With a slower advancement of the trough the dryline may set up across parts of northeast and east central Kansas Tuesday afternoon. Additional isolated severe storms may occur Tuesday afternoon into the early evening hours. Details will be adjusted with later forecast model cycles.

The next chance for showers and storms will come Wednesday night into Thursday as another trough and associated cold front move across the central Plains. Colder air moving in at the end of next week will bring low temperatures in the 30s back to the area Friday night.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions persist. Gusts at KFOE/KMHK continue through 10z or so which will limit LLWS conditions. Lighter winds at KTOP keep LLWS more of a concern through 11z. Winds stay light through the day today with a switch in direction to the east- northeast by late morning or early afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

South to southwest sustained winds of 15 to 25mph and gusts of 30 to 40mph will continue through the rest of the afternoon.
Relative humidity values of 15 to 20 percent were observed across north central Kansas and 25 to 30 percent for across the rest of the area. Fire partners indicate that even with green-up well underway, the abnormally warm temperatures along with recent dry conditions will work to further dry fuels and could lead to more erratic fire behavior. There is also concern that any fires from yesterday could reignite. With all of this considered, elevated fire danger will continue this afternoon and any burning should be postponed.

Sunday features slightly warmer temperatures and relative humidity values in the 20 to 30 percent range, but winds will be much lighter, generally 10 to 15mph. A change in wind direction occurs as a weak surface front moves through with early morning winds from the southwest becoming northeasterly through the day and eventually easterly Sunday evening. Light winds should limit fire weather concerns overall, although shifting winds could make fires more difficult to control.

CLIMATE
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Updated at 248 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Record High Temps Forecast High Temps

April 13 95 in Topeka (2006) 89 in Topeka 89 in Concordia (1936) 90 in Concordia

April 14 92 in Topeka (2006) 90 in Topeka 90 in Concordia (2002) 89 in Concordia

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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