Sunrise 6:42 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 3:18 PM   Moonset 4:01 AM

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FXUS63 KTOP 192326 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 626 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost and freezing temperatures possible Sunday morning.

- An active week ahead with several chances for thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A weak backdoor cold front will slowly sag southward across the area this evening. At the same time, some weak mid-level waves riding the zonal flow aloft will move overhead. This boundary and mid-level ascent could be enough for some light precipitation to develop this evening/overnight. Forecast soundings depict a fairly dry boundary-layer, so some/most precipitation may struggle to even reach the ground.

Surface high pressure builds in Saturday night into Sunday morning. Cloud cover could limit how far temperatures fall across most of the area, but with clearing sky and light wind across northern Kansas, temperatures may fall to near or slightly below freezing. A frost advisory or freeze warning may be needed for northern Kansas Sunday morning as a result.

An upper-level low is forecast to move out of the northern Plains Monday into Tuesday and drag a cold front through the central Plains. The 12 UTC suite of models are in relatively good agreement with bringing the front through Monday night.
There may be enough instability ahead of the front for some stronger thunderstorms. While models agree pretty well on the timing of the front, they vary widely with the amount of available moisture to work with and coverage of any precipitation. At this time, it appears there is a decent chance (40-50%) of at least getting some measurable precipitation out of this system.

For the last half of the week, a deep trough is forecast to dig across the western CONUS and lead to a Colorado low developing.
There is still significant uncertainty to the timing and track of this system, but it appears to be the next best chance at severe weather for the central Plains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR expected at all sites this period. North-northeast winds veer slightly to more of a northeasterly direction tonight and will increase briefly to around 10 kts. There is a slight chance for light rain near KMHK late tonight and early Saturday, but dry air beneath a mid-level cloud base could prevent much from reaching the ground. Thus, have kept mention of rain out of TAFs.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Topeka, KS,