Friday, September25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chapman, KS

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 7:20PM Friday September 25, 2020 8:51 AM CDT (13:51 UTC) Moonrise 3:22PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 59% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chapman, KS
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location: 38.89, -97     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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FXUS63 KTOP 251050 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 550 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

. Update to aviation forecast discussion .

SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

Summer weather returns for today with highs surging into the upper 80s east to mid-90s west.

The upper level analysis this morning shows an increasingly zonal flow pattern becoming established across the Central Plains as an active northern stream overpowers a downstream ridge axis. At the surface, lee troughing over the High Plains is sharpening and beginning to advance E/SE in response to an approaching upper tropospheric impulse along the MT/Alberta border. This wave races eastward and recurves into Ontario by the end of the day, resulting in the surface boundary stalling out along a SW to NE line from southwest Kansas to east-central Nebraska by 21Z this afternoon.

H850 temperatures ahead of the lower tropospheric front climb to +20 to +23 C this afternoon in north-central Kansas. Given the proximity of the front to the region and the tendency for enhanced mixing just ahead of such features, plus ample solar insolation, increased high temperatures by 3-5 degrees F west of an Abilene to Marysville line--pushing into record territory for this time of year. The latest forecast has Concordia breaking its high temperature record for the day (94 F set in 1998) by 2 degrees F, though there are indications using basic mixing techniques that highs could top out several degrees warmer. Farther east in east-central Kansas, deeper lower tropospheric moisture should temper mixing heights and keep temperatures lower, though a solid 10 degrees above average for this time of year.

Quiet weather is forecast for tonight with winds remaining in the 5 to 10 kt range given the pressure gradient established ahead of the stationary boundary. The NAM core solutions bring an area of shallow BL moisture northward into east-central Kansas in the form of a stratus deck, but given very dry atmosphere just above this layer and the 20-30 kt H900-800 LLJ developing overnight, enough vertical mixing between these layers should take place to mitigate the stratus threat. The NAM cores also have a tendency to be too bullish on the degree and depth of such moisture plumes, but will watch these trends with future forecast updates and see if any other solutions start to shift in this direction.

LONG TERM. (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

Summer weather lingers through Saturday before a cold front sweeps south on Sunday and ushers in fall weather for next week-- with the only chance of rain in the seven day forecast being along this front.

Zonal flow on Saturday morning begins to become more cyclonic late in the day as the upstream northern wave pattern undergoes amplification. The surface boundary will start to sag southward late in the day in response to this pattern change, but a very similar airmass will be in place during the day compared to Friday. Cautiously increased highs by several degrees in most places for Saturday (with most locales hitting around 90 to 95 degrees F), but based on how temperatures in north-central Kansas perform today, these changes may not be aggressive enough. The GFS is quite bullish in pushing highs to near 100 F in north-central Kansas on Saturday and the mid-90s F elsewhere. Certainly something to watch closely.

The front meanders southeastward Saturday night into Sunday morning, being situated along the I-70 corridor by 12Z Sunday morning. While the GFS and CMC have trended westward towards the EC with the progression of the digging upper tropospheric trough, uncertainty in the wave structure and position grows beyond 00Z Monday. Regardless of these differences, the westward shift in the PV lobe has rapidly increased the kinematic forcing along the surface baroclinic zone and likewise upped the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Forecast soundings in the warm sector depict a stout cap in place that will limit the degree of convection along and ahead of the immediate surface front. GFS and NAM forecast soundings show very limited 0-3 km CAPE under this inversion that may lead to low-topped shower development during the morning to mid-afternoon, but withheld any mention of thunder in the forecast during this time.

Increasing theta-e advection in the warm sector and isentropic ascent over the H850-H700 frontal surface should be sufficient for elevated convective initation in the evening hours, mainly south and east of the Turnpike. MUCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg and modest effective shear profiles would support organized updrafts capable of producing large hail, but the boundary-parallel orientation of the H700-H500 flow should result in updrafts merging quickly into a line and pushing southward into southeastern Kansas. Agree with the placement and reasoning behind the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk based on the preceding analysis.

The increasing spread amongst the medium range guidance with how the PV lobe evolves and digs into the central CONUS on Monday has resulted in low PoPs lingering in the far southeastern forecast area into Monday afternoon--attendant with a developing deformation zone band--but confidence in these precip chances is especially low at the present time. Confidence remains high, though, in the arrival of a cold Canadian airmass behind the front on Monday with highs only reaching the mid-60s amidst a stiff northwest wind of 10 to 15 kts with gusts of 25 to 30 kts. A secondary surge of polar air is likely around midweek, but the significant timing discrepancies that develop among the longer range guidance preclude nailing down any specifics on the timing or details of the airmass. However, there is high confidence that temperatures will be below average for the balance of the week.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 550 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period, though there is a very low chance of IFR stratus in far eastern Kansas after 06Z on Saturday. Light south winds this morning increase to 10 to 15 kts with gusts of 20 to 25 kts in the afternoon. Surface winds decrease in the evening, with LLWS developing after 04Z Saturday.

CLIMATE. Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

Record Highs for Friday (Today) --------------------------------------- Concordia 94 (1998) Forecast High: 96 Topeka 93 (1898) Forecast High: 87

Record Highs for Saturday --------------------------------------- Concordia 94 (1897) Forecast High: 95 Topeka 96 (1990) Forecast High: 91

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . Skow LONG TERM . Skow AVIATION . Skow CLIMATE . Skow


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Riley - Marshall AAF, KS17 mi56 minSSW 410.00 miFair65°F60°F85%1008.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRI

Wind History from FRI (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Ground Weather Radar Station Topeka, KS
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