Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chapman, KS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 7:49PM Sunday March 29, 2020 1:48 PM CDT (18:48 UTC) Moonrise 9:15AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chapman, KS
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location: 38.89, -97     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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FXUS63 KTOP 291742 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1242 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

08Z water vapor imagery shows a closed low lifting over the Upper Midwest. Another low amplitude shortwave was noted approaching the central CA coast. A third upper low could be see over the Gulf of Alaska. Shortwave ridging was seen over the central and northern Rockies. At the surface, a low pressure system was lifting into WI and weak ridging was filling in behind this system across the southern and central plains.

. Update to aviation forecast discussion .

SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

For today and tonight, the weather is expected to be quieter as shortwave ridging develops over the central plains. Forecast soundings show a dry airmass moving in with deep mixing anticipated. This should allow for sunny skies to prevail. A deep westerly wind profile is also expected to help warm temps into the mid and upper 60s. This may also cause dry air to mix to the surface causing RH values to fall into the 20 to 30 percent range. With surface winds in the 10 to 20 MPH range, fire danger may be of some concern and something for the day shift to keep an eye on. Winds let up overnight tonight. Combined with the dry air, lows should fall into the mid 30s and around 40.

LONG TERM. (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

The next chance for shower and perhaps a rumble of thunder continues to be late Monday and Monday night. Overall models have trended slightly south with the track of the storm system. But there appears to be good Q vector convergence moving across central KS while the better PV anomaly stays mainly south of the forecast area. The main affect of this is to shift the higher POPs south, although still maintaining likely POPs across most of the forecast area. Some steep mid level lapse rates initially support some modest elevated instability. This does not look to stick around for long. Once precip begins, the column is progged to saturate with lapse rates close to the moist adiabat. So overall thunderstorms look to remain isolated if they develop at all. This system is expected to remain progressive with precip moving out early in the day Tuesday.

For Wednesday through Friday, confidence in the forecast remains below average as models show little run to run consistency. Although the model runs from the same initialization time seem to be coming up with similar solutions. In short a closed low is anticipated over the northern plains. As energy rotates around the upper low, a cold front is projected to move through the central plains. Timing of this boundary has varied over the last couple days from anywhere between Tuesday night and now Thursday night. Overall synoptic forcing for vertical motion appears to be weakly organized so I think the better chances for precip through the second half of work week will be centered around when the front moves through. For now just have some low chance POPs Thursday and Thursday night given the poor run to run consistency.

Temps are forecast to remain on the mild side with highs in the 60s and lows generally in the 40s. Once the front does move through, this is expected to cool temps with highs in the 50s Friday and Saturday. Lows are forecast to fall to around the freezing mark by Saturday morning.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020

VFR conditions prevail through this period. Any chances for precipitation should hold off until at least the next forecast period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SYNOPSIS . Wolters SHORT TERM . Wolters LONG TERM . Wolters AVIATION . Drake


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Riley - Marshall AAF, KS17 mi1.9 hrsW 1010.00 miFair61°F34°F37%1018.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRI

Wind History from FRI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW26
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1 day agoCalmCalmW5N7CalmE3NW6N4N6N8NE6E6NE7NE5NE3NE8NE7NE6NE6E6SW18
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2 days agoNE7CalmCalmN6E3NE5E7E8NE9NE6E9NE7N5N7NE7NE10NE10NE8NE5NE3NE4N4N4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Topeka, KS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.