DISCUSSION
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

PRECIPITATION...

THIS AFTERNOON--TONIGHT...Subtle shortwave energy approaching from the southwest combined with an old remnant frontal zone returning northward will be the focus for scattered thunderstorm chances increasing from the west-southwest later today into the evening, especially along and west of the Flint Hills. A decent combination of instability up to around 2000 J/kg and deep layer shear around 40 kts should support a handful of strong to severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. Given hefty downdraft CAPE values, activity should tend to congeal and grow upscale fairly quickly, transitioning the primary threat to damaging winds with time. After about midnight tonight, increasing deep warm/moist advection should transition the thunderstorm threat to mainly northern to northeast Kansas, with a threat for marginally severe wind and hail.

SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON--SUNDAY NIGHT...This period will feature increasing chances for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, as a potent shortwave and strong cold front traverses Mid-America. The best chances Saturday late afternoon--night will be mainly along and northwest of the KS Turnpike, with these chances gradually shifting south into southern and southeast Kansas Sunday afternoon and night. Marginal instability should preclude widespread severe weather, although a handful of strong to marginally severe storms are possible. Additionally, seasonably high precipitable waters and numerous training showers/storms will support locally heavy rainfall, with the greatest potential for amounts exceeding one inch over central Kansas, and also far eastern Kansas.

TEMPERATURES...

TODAY--SATURDAY...A few more days of above average temperatures will prevail through Saturday, as southerly flow persists ahead of a deep western CONUS trough. Widespread 90s to near 100 degrees are likely, although widespread mid and upper clouds should temper highs a bit Saturday. Heat indices 100-104 degrees are expected this afternoon over portions of south-central and southeast Kansas.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...Much cooler weather is on the way, as a strong cold front slices south through Mid-America. The cooler Canadian airmass combined with widespread clouds and precipitation should keep central Kansas in the 50s-60s Sunday, with 70s and 80s further south. Deterministic and ensemble consensus keeps the region below average temperature-wise Monday through Wednesday, with readings getting closer to normal by mid to late next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The primary aviation concern will be isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential increasing from the west-southwest this evening, in the vicinity of a weak frontal zone slowly returning back northward. Thinking ICT and HUT stand the best chance at experiencing this activity. For now, included PROB30 TSRA with gusty winds for all sites except CNU. Later shifts will fine tune as needed.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.