Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Solomon, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon indicates strong mid/upper flow over the Central Plains ahead of a weak vort max situated over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a cold front extends from the Oklahoma Panhandle to the Ohio River Valley.

THIS EVENING THRU EARLY SUNDAY MORNING:

The weak upper impulse will quickly track into the Southern Plains later today into the evening. With strong low-level moisture advection, the subsequent warm front is progged to lift northward through Oklahoma and touch off showers and storms that may make it into south/southeast Kansas by 7-9 PM. There remains solid short- term model agreement in sufficient elevated instability (2000-3000 J/kg) and effective shear (~40 kts) for the strongest storms to be capable of large hail. Still looking for areas over southern Kansas to have the best chances for storms, though even better chances will likely remain in northern Oklahoma.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING:

Attention then shifts to Sunday as a potent upper wave moves across the southwest CONUS into the Rockies. Continued low-level moisture advection throughout the morning could lead to drizzle and/or patchy fog primarily west of I-135. By late afternoon, upper energy is progged over the High Plains with the associated surface low positioned near the Kansas/Colorado border. Thunderstorm activity is expected to begin along the associated dryline, which most models place somewhere between US-83 and US-283. CAM solutions suggest storm initiation during the afternoon and evening hours, with the dryline having minimal eastward propagation. Combined with solid low- level convergence, impressive instability (> 2000 J/kg), and veering hodographs within the warm sector, this setup is supportive for supercells firing off the boundary and traveling into central and south central Kansas through the afternoon and evening. These storms may be capable of producing very large hail (up to tennis ball size), damaging winds (up to 80 mph), and tornadoes.

Several factors could contribute to a lack of storm development despite a more-than-favorable environment for severe storms. First, model trends have slowed down the arrival of low-level moisture along with upper features for synoptic forcing. This slowing of upper forcing has placed the surface low and dryline further west than previous runs, which could place greater storm potential to our west-southwest. Second, low-level moisture advection may keep the area too cloud-covered and capped for lifted parcels to freely convect, thereby inhibiting surface-based thunderstorm development overall. Showers and storms could further develop along the warm front as it surges north, which would also keep severe chances down.
Third, while models have generally trended quicker with storm development tonight into Sunday morning, any activity lingering into the morning hours may produce outflow that shrinks the warm sector and prevents thunderstorms from remaining surface-based as they pass into central and south central Kansas. Despite all these factors, this period continues to have high potential for severe activity.

MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING:

The mid/upper wave from Sunday's system is progged to lift to the northeast as another wave approaches from the west. By early afternoon, primary consensus among models to this point carries another dryline mainly situated along/near I-135. Storms are expected to begin developing off this boundary by mid-afternoon into the evening. Abundant warm-sector moisture will once again contribute to ample buoyancy (> 2000 J/kg) for severe thunderstorms, and with a strong upper jet nosing its way into Oklahoma and southern Kansas by evening, impressive shear will support both discrete and linear modes heading into Monday night. To this point, all severe hazards appear possible, especially in the eastern half of Kansas.

TUESDAY THRU END OF WEEK:

Mid/upper flow is expected to become more northwesterly following the departure of Monday's system. Below-average high temperatures (upper 60s to mid 70s) are expected through mid-week, with temperatures in the 80s returning as we head toward next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 704 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

A few showers and storms are developing across portions of Kansas and Oklahoma this evening. This activity is expected to move to the east northeast through the evening. Confidence on direct impacts to any one TAF site remains too low at this time to include a prevailing mention however PROB30s remain at ICT, CNU, and HUT. If any storm develops it may have the potential to produce large hail. As a warm front continues to lift north through the night, low-level moisture will also surge northward.
This will lead to MVFR and then IFR ceilings moving into the region from south to north through the morning hours. These low clouds are expected to persist through the early evening hours.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible towards the end of this TAF period primarily at HUT, ICT, and CNU.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.