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FXUS65 KREV 021848 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1148 AM PDT Mon Oct 2 2023


SYNOPSIS

As the upper low migrates eastward out of the region it will bring one last bit of showers to northern Washoe and Pershing counties this afternoon through Wednesday. This last round of cold and showers will delay our warmup a bit, but the return of high pressure will bring plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures for the last part of the week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

* Our friendly neighborhood low is taking a tour of the Great Basin and is centered over Utah today. Most of the impacts related to the low have exited with it, but we will see one last round of showers as a shortwave rounds the backside of the upper low. This shortwave will bring another push of cold air and moisture resulting in showers and a delay in our warming trend on tap for the rest of the week. Rude! The majority of the showers will hug the NV/OR border in a line from Alturas to Winnemucca late this afternoon through midday Tuesday. This renewed push of colder air along with the shortwave will also enhance east-northeast winds for the Sierra crest. Surface winds will remain easterly and relatively light, but areas right along the Sierra crest may see wind gusts up to 50 mph Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning. Peak winds will likely be done by around 10-11pm on Tuesday, but if winds mix down there may be a bit of chop on Lake Tahoe.

* The remainder of the week is looking quite splendiferous! So soak in those sunny days, seasonally cool mornings, with the light winds and dry conditions. The extended forecast has indications that those type of days won't be around for long. Latest long range guidance highlights a more progressive pattern shaping up by the October 10th - 15th timeframe with a breakdown of the upper ridge across the West. Blended guidance shows a large spread for temperatures forecasts, while ensemble cluster solutions range from a Pacific Northwest trough to at the very least a severe flattening of the upper ridge. Either way, trends are leaning toward a transient ridge and a more progressive, unsettled pattern for next week.

-Edan

AVIATION

* Upper low centered over UT is still slowly migrating eastward through the day. One more shortwave will drop through the backside of the upper low and kick off some light showers for areas north of I-80. There may be some lowered ceilings due to low and mid level clouds and light showers stretching from KAAT eastward to KWMC from Tue 0z to 21z.

* The shortwave will also reinforce the west to east surface gradient and enhance the north-northeast winds across the Sierra ridges. This may pose some light-moderate turbulence issues, especially to smaller aircraft. Surface winds at area terminals will mostly be light (less than 10-15 kts).

* High pressure returns and will finally bring clearing skies, light winds and warmer conditions for the latter half of the week.

-Edan


REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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