Monday, January18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Lake Tahoe, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:07PM Monday January 18, 2021 6:21 AM PST (14:21 UTC) Moonrise 10:44AMMoonset 10:57PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Lake Tahoe, CA
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location: 38.91, -120.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Reno, NV
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FXUS65 KREV 181057 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 257 AM PST Mon Jan 18 2021

SYNOPSIS.

Winds increase today out of the north to northeast as a mostly dry low pressure system drops into the region. Expect northeasterly flow to ramp up Monday night with damaging winds possible for the Sierra. Temperatures will cool back toward seasonal averages early this week with better potential for precipitation Friday and continuing into the final week of January.

SHORT TERM.

The focus continues to be on the northeast wind event for tonight into Tuesday with few changes made to the forecast. Overall, this wind event looks stronger than last February, but not as strong as the historic 2011 northeast wind.

Changes to the grids were minor with the exception of the Pyramid Lake area. Winds were increased for today into Tuesday over Pyramid Lake, and we have hoisted a Lake Wind Advisory for this afternoon. Winds there will be close to criteria. However, this direction would put the highest waves near the main boat launch area in Sutcliffe.

Elsewhere, the winds today will be breezy but not overly strong. Gusts to 75 mph over the Sierra Crest and 30-35 mph for most lower valleys. The Lake Wind Advisory for Tahoe today will continue.

As we move into tonight, a second stronger back door cold front moves through this evening. Much colder air arrives behind the front, but the biggest issue is the wind with a 150+ kt jet crossing the Sierra. 500 mb winds near 120 kts with 700 winds of 80+ kts over the Sierra Crest. Combined with a 15 mb surface gradient over the Sierra, winds from the northeast will howl tonight, with the peak winds likely to be from midnight tonight through 10 AM Tuesday morning. The High Wind Warning looks good with the strongest winds above 6500 feet or so.

While the valley winds will be a more moderate 40-50 mph in the Sierra valleys, the unusual direction for winds of this strength will likely cause more tree damage and potential downed power lines. Sierra Crest winds could gust 150 mph or more, especially Tuesday morning. After the peak in the winds, they will gradually wind down Tuesday, but continue to be quite breezy for most areas.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, the winds diminish even more with light winds by Wednesday. Temperatures will also begin to warm Wednesday after a cold morning for valley areas. X

LONG TERM. Thursday through the end of January .

Confidence continues to increase in a change to a much more active and wet pattern for much of the western United States beginning by Friday of this week and extending into the last week of January. This means that periods of rain/snow and breezy winds along with colder, but average temperatures are all likely during this time.

The main change made to the long term forecast this cycle was to increase POPs along the Sierra and Mineral County for the Friday/Saturday storm as well as across much of the Sierra and western Nevada for the next Monday/Tuesday storm.

*Storm 1 . Friday into Saturday:

As the ridge of high pressure in the eastern Pacific retrogrades and amplifies into the Gulf of Alaska, the first of the potential parade of storms looks to take advantage of the ridge positioning and drops southward from the Pacific Northwest region. There still remains model discrepancy in regards to the trough's positioning and amount of available moisture. For example, the deterministic GFS is a bit wetter compared to the ECMWF due to the GFS showing the trough more off the coast allowing the low to pick up more moisture off the ocean. The ECMWF shows a more inland approach which would result in a bit less moisture content. With the EPS and GEFS in better agreement with the ECMWF, we are putting a few more eggs in the drier scenario basket at this time. However, with a more inland trajectory, this could allow better chances for rain/snow across western Nevada as the center of the low would be directly overhead.

As of this morning, the National Blend of Models has the following probabilities for snowfall:

Susanville: 20% for >2" and 50% for >1"

South Lake Tahoe: 25% for >8" and 70% for >2"

Reno: 15% for >2" and 50% for >1"

Lovelock: 25% for >1"

Mammoth Lakes: 20% for >6" and 70% for >2"

*Storm 2 . Monday into Tuesday:

After a brief shortwave ridging on Sunday, another, more potent system looks to impact the region. Model guidance, including the EPS and GEFS, shows a negatively-tilted trough with more upper-level jet support dropping down from the shores of British Columbia and into the intermountain west. This system is looking like the wetter of the two systems and looks a bit more organized at this time. With temperatures already colder thanks to the first storm and more moisture, accumulating snow is possible down to all valley floors. Being a week out, not going to go into the specifics regarding amounts, but just know that snowfall with possible travel disruptions is on the table to begin next week.

For the remainder of next week, long range guidance points to the active pattern continuing with additional precipitation chances and colder temperatures to most, if not all, of the region. If that Pacific ridge of high pressure stays put north of Hawaii and into the eastern Aleutian Islands, then pattern recognition and teleconnections show it that the stormy pattern should continue.

-LaGuardia

AVIATION.

Winds continue to be the main concern with mainly VFR conditions through 06Z tonight. Today, winds from the NE with gusts near 25 kts for terminals. Some localized LLWS in the Sierra near Lake Tahoe. Much bigger concern for LLWS tonight as the northeast winds strengthen, especially off the surface. The worst LLWS will be in the Sierra along with severe turbulence likely with a very strong mountain wave. Gust at the terminals tonight still 25-30 kts, but locally stronger to 45 kts around KTVL.

Another concern would be some local MVFR conditions in -SHSN near the Sierra Crest along with mtn obscuration from 06-18Z Tuesday. Moisture is limited to it will remain localized.

Improving conditions after 18Z Tuesday in winds and -SN with LLWS likely to end from 00-03Z Wednesday. Quiet conditions Wed and Thu with snow possible for all terminals Friday as an outside slider approaches. Heavy snow is unlikely, and which terminals will be most affected remain hazy at this time. X

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories.

NV . High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM PST Tuesday NVZ002.

Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST this evening for Lake Tahoe in NVZ002.

Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM PST this evening for Pyramid Lake in NVZ004.

CA . High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM PST Tuesday CAZ071>073.

Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST this evening for Lake Tahoe in CAZ072.



For more information from the National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/reno


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Lake Tahoe, Lake Tahoe Airport, CA1 mi29 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds36°F26°F67%1022.9 hPa
Carson City Airport, NV24 mi27 minN 07.00 miOvercast36°F28°F75%1025.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVL

Wind History from TVL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalm4NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmS4S3CalmS4Calm3N4SE6Calm3CalmCalm
1 day agoS3CalmS3CalmNE3NE6N6Calm3N3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmS5CalmS4S4CalmCalmS3
2 days agoS3CalmCalmSE3NE3N4N10NE6S7SW4S4S4N3SW3S3CalmS3CalmS3CalmCalmS3S3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Sacramento #4, Sacramento River, California
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Sacramento #4
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:08 AM PST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:20 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:49 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:26 AM PST     2.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:12 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:45 PM PST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:39 PM PST     2.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:03 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.71.20.80.40.20.10.20.81.62.22.62.62.421.61.20.90.70.71.11.72.22.3

Tide / Current Tables for Clarksburg #4, Sacramento River, California
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Clarksburg #4
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Mon -- 04:38 AM PST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:20 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:17 AM PST     2.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:49 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:13 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:15 PM PST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:30 PM PST     2.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:03 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.10.60.30.10.10.41.11.82.32.62.62.31.91.41.10.80.60.81.31.92.22.32.1

Weather Map
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.