NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS61 KILN 041947 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 247 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
A low pressure system will move through the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, bringing a chance for rain and snow to the region.
High pressure will build into the area through mid week, leading to drier conditions and a gradual warming trend through the end of the work week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Lingering light pcpn across our south will quickly taper off through late afternoon as the weakening low pressure system moves across the eastern Tennessee Valley. Weak mid level ridging will translate quickly east across the area tonight.
This will lead to a period of partly cloudy skies before we see clouds thicken back up late tonight ahead of an approaching mid level short wave. Suppose a few showers could sneak into our far west late tonight in association with this, but the better chance for any pcpn should hold off through the nighttime period. Lows tonight will be in the low 30s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
An initial mid level short wave will push east across our area Tuesday morning with the main trough axis then pivoting through our area during the afternoon. We will saturate ahead of the initial short wave with pcpn developing across our west toward daybreak and then spreading east across the remainder of our area through late morning and early afternoon. Pcpn will likely begin as mainly snow for much of the west early. With some wetbulbing, will undercut temperatures a bit through the morning hours, with temperatures across our north likely remaining in the low to mid 30s through the morning.

Forecast soundings are supporting mainly all snow across our north during the morning, with more of a rain or rain/snow mix across our southern areas. Across our north, we should then transition over to a rain/snow mix through late morning and early afternoon before going over to mainly rain. Snow accumulations of a half inch or so will be possible, mainly for areas along and north of I-70. Road/ground temperatures will remain warm, so expect any accumulation to be mainly on grassy/elevated surfaces, with minimal travel impact. Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south.

Pcpn will taper off from the northwest Tuesday night but may briefly change back to snow or a rain/snow mix before ending, as some cooler air starts to move in. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Forecast looks to be well in hand through Friday. Afterwards, the weekend is in high question. Different scenarios regarding strength, placement, and timing of a l/w trough, embedded s/w lobes, and subsequent placement of the surface low and cold front. This time frame hosts a significantly wide range of possible solutions, used NBM in its entirety here hoping that the blend would be closer to or at least encompass the actual solution.

The bulk of the weather will have already happened by daybreak Wednesday. Had flurries in for the day yesterday but am not going to flip flop between forecasts and have left them out with this package, a continuation of the previous extended forecast. Still expect the cold advection and lingering low level moisture to produce some flurries/light snow across the area through early Wednesday afternoon.

Surface axis of high pressure crosses the region to the southeast with return southerly flow kicking in Wednesday night. Upper ridge axis crosses the region Thursday evening and warm advection kicks in for the remainder of the forecast until the next airmass change associated with the weekend system.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A few showers and brief MVFR conditions may linger at the southern TAF sites for the first hour or so of the TAF period as surface low pressure moves off to our southeast. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected the rest of this afternoon and into this evening.

A low pressure system will approach from the west late tonight and then move east across our area through the day on Tuesday.
As it does, pcpn will overspread the area Tuesday morning and then continue into the afternoon. Pcpn will likely start off as mainly snow early before transitioning over to rain from south to north across the area during the day. The northern TAF sites will likely remain mostly snow through much of the morning. As the low levels saturate, cigs will quickly drop into MVFR and then IFR through the morning hours. MVFR to IFR vsbys will also develop with any snow Tuesday morning.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Wednesday. MVFR conditions possible Friday night into Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Wilmington, OH,