Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oakbrook, KY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Upper low will start to gradually shift to the east today. Mid-level shortwaves rotating around the low will bring lots of clouds along with some showers. Radar already shows light shower activity in spots this morning, then shortwave energy combined with destabilizaton will promote an increase in coverage during the afternoon. Have highest PoPs across northern and eastern portions of the CWA, however some showers may occur as far south as northern Kentucky and the Tri-State area.

Pressure gradient will be tight enough for gusty winds at times, possibly up to 25 mph. In addition, today will be rather cool with high temperatures ranging from the mid 50s north to upper 50s south.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
Shower activity will taper off heading into this evening as we lose the diurnal component and the better mid level energy rotates off to the east. Northwest flow aloft will develop through the day on Friday. With some weak diurnal instability developing, it will tough to rule out a few spotty showers heading into Friday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain cool with lows tonight in upper 30s to lower 40s and highs on Friday in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Below normal temperatures are expected to continue for much of the long term time period. Dry conditions are expected to start out the long term through most of Saturday night.

Precipitation chances will start to move into the region late Saturday night into Sunday, however decreased precipitation chances during this time given most model solutions keeping precipitation south of the region.

This changes on Monday as a low pressure system approaches and brings higher precipitation chances to the region. Even as the surface low moves to the east, upper level disturbances will keep precipitation chances in the forecast through the remainder of the long term. Instability is rather limited in the long term with any thunder chances limited to the slight chance and chance categories.

Depending on the track of the low will, will have to monitor trends for potential heavy rain mention Monday night, however with model variability at this time, confidence was not high enough to mention at this time or to increase precipitation chances from the NBM during that time.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
An upper level low pressure system will rotate across the Great Lakes today into tonight. Light showers across our area early this morning will become more widespread as we progress through the day and begin to weakly destabilize. Expect MVFR cigs to prevail through the day with some occasional IFR cigs possible. Some MVFR vsby restrictions will also be possible in the heavier rain showers. In addition, it will be tough to rule out an isolated thunderstorm, later this morning and into this afternoon, especially at the central Ohio terminals . Pcpn will taper off as we head into this evening with cigs lifting into VFR. West winds of 10 to 20 knots will persist today with gusts to around 25 knots possible later this morning and into this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.