Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for De Soto, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have formed across portions of Linn County Kansas and Bates County Missouri, within an environment characterized by very weak deep layer shear. This precipitation has formed near a plume of deeper surface moisture, which is slowly advecting north and west from south central Missouri and northern Arkansas.

For tonight, expect the aforementioned scattered showers and thunderstorms to persist through sunset. This activity is not expected to cause any issues, outside of occasional lightning strikes and brief heavy downpours. Thus far, any thunderstorms have remained short lived, and this should continue into this evening. After sunset, a loss of diurnal heating and instability should allow for any lingering precipitation to quickly wane.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are then expected tomorrow, as the aforementioned moist airmass overspreads much of the area. This leads to PWATs increasing to near and just above 2", which sits ~90th percentile climo for mid-July. Little change in upper level flow leads to very weak deep layer shear in place again tomorrow, and storms should have limited organization along with slow movement. These high PWATs and slow storm motions will pose a threat for locally heavy rainfall, and localized flash flooding cannot be completely ruled out. Some threat for gusty winds (wet microbursts) may exist as well, though confidence in this is low.

Upper ridging then reestablishes further west by late week, with the potential for more active northwest flow to establish into early next week. This will also bring a return of increasing low level warm advection, with guidance suggesting low level jet development nearly each night by this weekend and beyond. This will bring increasing temperatures across the area by Saturday, with highs in the middle to upper 90s expected through Monday. Monday continues to be the warmest day, where highs in the upper 90s will overlap with dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s to push heat index values to as high as 100 to 105F.
The greatest heat concerns Monday are expected for areas near and south of Interstate 70.

The less clear threat will be for any thunderstorms across the area this weekend and into early next week. The development of the nocturnal low level jet does suggest some threat for overnight thunderstorms, though confidence in this remains low.
Inherited slight-chance POPs in the overnight hours Monday and beyond look reasonable at this timeframe, and see no reason to make any adjustments. Will especially have to monitor this threat into early next week as troughing begins to establish across the eastern CONUS, bringing a return of active northwest flow aloft.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Clearing skies are expected tonight with a light east-northeast winds. Winds are expected to become light out of the south on Thursday, leading to scatter cumulus after 15Z. Could also see a thin layer of clouds around 15K feet. Isolated storms are possible after 20Z Thursday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.