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FXUS63 KEAX 090505 AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1105 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Discussion
Issued at 346 PM CST FRI DEC 8 2023

Key Points:

* Rain is expected along and south of a line from St Joseph to Lamoni this evening

* Cooler and breezy conditions tomorrow.

* Seasonal conditions much of the upcoming week with mainly dry conditions.

Detailed discussion...

Area of low pressure across northeast Oklahoma is expected to continue to slide northeast through the evening hours. Isentropic lift on the 295K surface will lead to the development of showers mainly south of a line from St Joseph to Lamoni. Weak instability could lead to a few lightning strikes across central Missouri, but instability and effective shear is expected to remain low. Towards 06Z, the stationary front across the area will work south bringing an end to lift and precipitation. Modest cold air advection behind the front will lead to cooler and a breezier Saturday across the region.

Weak surface inversion on Saturday is expected to quickly mix out with stronger momentum from aloft mixing towards the surface leading to gusty conditions. 25-30 knots of flow at 925 hpa will lead to gusts of 20-25 knots throughout the daylight hours.

Cooler but drier conditions are expected the second half of the weekend into early next week. The cold front associated from a low pressure system moving across central Canada will lead to a brief cool down on Tuesday.

Cut off low across the southwest US midweek is expected to weaken and shift east late week bringing the chance of rain next Friday.

Aviation
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST FRI DEC 8 2023

VFR conditions are likely (>85%) through the forecast. Light rain will push east of the area over next few hours with mid to high- level ceilings filling in behind. Saturday morning, winds will increase from the northwest to 10-15kts sustained with gusts of 25-30kts. Winds are expected to peak during the afternoon and will diminish with the loss of daytime heating. There may be some clearing Saturday morning but additional mid-level clouds will move into the area from the north.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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