Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for De Soto, KS
July 3, 2024 12:50 AM CDT (05:50 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:58 AM Sunset 8:49 PM Moonrise 2:28 AM Moonset 6:17 PM |
Area Discussion for - Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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FXUS63 KEAX 030535 AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1235 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe Storms Late Afternoon Through Evening
- Heavy Rainfall Will Augment Flooding Issues This Week
- Additional Storm Chances Wednesday and Thursday
DISCUSSION
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Mid-level trough axis is progressing across the central Plains late this afternoon bringing subtle H5 height falls into the lower Missouri River Valley. Stronger jet streak is starting to move into Central Iowa and has focused stronger upper-level divergence north of our forecast area, though some lift is still ongoing in north- central Missouri late this afternoon as noted by continued cloud development on GOES-16 satellite imagery. At the surface, a deeper surface cyclone has been developing over the Canadian Prairie Provinces in response to stronger dCVA ahead of the mid-level trough axis, through secondary dCVA has been promoting moderate surface cyclogenesis across the Central Plains this afternoon. This has resulted in surface pressure falls as far east as Central Missouri this afternoon and has promoted southerly flow through most of the afternoon, with robust theta-e advection. Temperatures have reached the lower to mid 90s across most of the area with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. A cold front is currently situated from east of Omaha, Nebraska southwestward through Junction City, KS to just east of Dodge City, KS. An effective warm front that resulted from differential heating has surged into southern Iowa. Rather robust warm sector has been developing across eastern Kansas into Central Missouri, with MLCAPE values already pushing above 3000 J/kg. This has largely been driven by strong boundary layer mixing resulting in boundary layer lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. The limiting factor to initial updrafts (prior to 00z) will be mid-level lapse rates that are weaker (struggle to get beyond 6.7 C/km) as there has been minimal mid-level cooling through the afternoon. With that being said, with some large scale ascent present and with thermal boundary in Iowa, CI is still expected and this trend is realized already with glaciation in day-cloud phase satellite imagery. Prior to 00z, a few discrete storms are possible in north-central Missouri. Deep layer shear has been increasing, with 0-6km bulk shear values of 40+ kts and lengthening hodographs that will support the potential for supercell structure. Although the effective warm frontal boundary has surged into Iowa, there is still some low-level SRH present that may be able to organize low-level mesocyclone development. Current analysis suggests 0-500m SRH 50-75 m^2/s^2 and 0-1km SRH between 75- 100 m^2/s^2, and may support tornadic development. However, low- level storm relative flow of 25-30 kts may end up disrupting tornadogenesis processes, and also much of the vorticity ingest may be more crosswise than streamwise, as a rightward storm motion deviation would be needed to realize a more streamwise ingest.
Current Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) guidance has been suggesting stronger rotation potential into southern Iowa closer to the effective warm front, where SRH values should be locally enhanced and better potential for streamwise ingest. While it is important to note that updraft-helicity (UH) tracks do not equal tornado tracks, it does provide an idea of SRH that is in the atmosphere and ability for low-level mesosyclone intensification. The HRRR has been indicating some tracks in north-central Missouri with initial development along with some of the WoFS runs, however, the greater magnitudes and probabilities have been shifting northward. With that being said, there is some CAPE within the hail growth zone, and in this high theta-e mid-summer air mass, the low-level shear and mesocyclone with even crosswise vorticity could actually help some hail embryos grow despite unimpressive mid-level lapse rates with discrete storms. Then finally, model soundings suggest decent theta- e deficits within the convective boundary layer that could promote negatively buoyant downdrafts resulting in damaging wind gusts.
Eventually, the discrete storm potential is expected to start growing upscale as the previously mentioned cold front begins to move eastward as dCVA picks up and the surface cyclone slides eastward. The LLJ should also be ramping up during this time period after 7pm. Expecting a linear storm mode to develop after 00z, mainly presenting a wind threat between stronger negative buoyancy downdrafts developing as well as precipitation dragging LLJ momentum toward the surface. There may be some hail threat along the cold front with initial updrafts but after congealing should mainly be a wind threat. At the moment, 0-3km bulk shear vector will be oriented primarily parallel to the cold front and associated line of storms.
Thinking that mesovortex generation and associated QLCS tornado threat would be largely limited, but will need to watch out for surges along the line that could reorient it. Watch for subsequent mesoscale discussions on threats associated with the QLCS later this evening, mainly after 00z (7pm CDT). Eventually, cold front sweeps through the area, and pushes most of the storm activity out of our forecast area by 05-06z. As for flooding and hydrology related concerns, the storms should be rather progressive. However, with PWATs near 2.5 inches across most of the warm sector ahead of the cold front, storms can be very efficient rainfall producers in a short period of time. For the KC metro, HRRR mean values are around 0.75 inches, with probability matched mean values near 1.30 inches.
Current guidance suggests flooding in the KC metro could start with 1.5 inches for both 1-hour and 3-hour time ranges. Therefore, with recent flooding events, have included our western counties in the flash flood watch. For our northeast and north-central counties, while recent rainfall has not been as heavy, greater synoptic scale lift along with two rounds of storms potential this afternoon and evening could result in rainfall amounts between 2-3 inches, with locally higher amounts of 4 inches possible based on HRRR probability-matched mean guidance. Although these areas outside of the metro can handle heavier rain, these thresholds may be met, and thus have issued the flood watch east and northeast as well through 12z Wednesday morning. In additional to flash flooding and areal flooding, flooding concerns continue along the Missouri River and other tributaries that flow into it.
The weather pattern remains active through the end of this week, and could impact July 4th holiday. The cold front on Wednesday likely stalls nears the Ozarks, and could produce more rain shower and thunderstorm activity in our southern counties. However, this will largely depend on instability and atmospheric recovery. Another short-wave ejects and mid-latitude cyclone develops that could bring another round of severe storms to the area on Thursday, along with heavy rainfall. Specific mesoscale details will analyzed at a later time. Temperatures will continue to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the end of this week.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Band of scattered showers and thunderstorms along I-70 is expected to gradually shift east throughout the overnight.
Visibility should only be briefly reduced in the heavier storms.
After 18Z Wednesday, there is the potential for additional showers/thunderstorms though timing and coverage is unclear.
Surface winds are expected to be light through the period.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ002>008-012>017- 020>025-028>032-037>039-043-044.
KS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-102>105.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1235 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe Storms Late Afternoon Through Evening
- Heavy Rainfall Will Augment Flooding Issues This Week
- Additional Storm Chances Wednesday and Thursday
DISCUSSION
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Mid-level trough axis is progressing across the central Plains late this afternoon bringing subtle H5 height falls into the lower Missouri River Valley. Stronger jet streak is starting to move into Central Iowa and has focused stronger upper-level divergence north of our forecast area, though some lift is still ongoing in north- central Missouri late this afternoon as noted by continued cloud development on GOES-16 satellite imagery. At the surface, a deeper surface cyclone has been developing over the Canadian Prairie Provinces in response to stronger dCVA ahead of the mid-level trough axis, through secondary dCVA has been promoting moderate surface cyclogenesis across the Central Plains this afternoon. This has resulted in surface pressure falls as far east as Central Missouri this afternoon and has promoted southerly flow through most of the afternoon, with robust theta-e advection. Temperatures have reached the lower to mid 90s across most of the area with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. A cold front is currently situated from east of Omaha, Nebraska southwestward through Junction City, KS to just east of Dodge City, KS. An effective warm front that resulted from differential heating has surged into southern Iowa. Rather robust warm sector has been developing across eastern Kansas into Central Missouri, with MLCAPE values already pushing above 3000 J/kg. This has largely been driven by strong boundary layer mixing resulting in boundary layer lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. The limiting factor to initial updrafts (prior to 00z) will be mid-level lapse rates that are weaker (struggle to get beyond 6.7 C/km) as there has been minimal mid-level cooling through the afternoon. With that being said, with some large scale ascent present and with thermal boundary in Iowa, CI is still expected and this trend is realized already with glaciation in day-cloud phase satellite imagery. Prior to 00z, a few discrete storms are possible in north-central Missouri. Deep layer shear has been increasing, with 0-6km bulk shear values of 40+ kts and lengthening hodographs that will support the potential for supercell structure. Although the effective warm frontal boundary has surged into Iowa, there is still some low-level SRH present that may be able to organize low-level mesocyclone development. Current analysis suggests 0-500m SRH 50-75 m^2/s^2 and 0-1km SRH between 75- 100 m^2/s^2, and may support tornadic development. However, low- level storm relative flow of 25-30 kts may end up disrupting tornadogenesis processes, and also much of the vorticity ingest may be more crosswise than streamwise, as a rightward storm motion deviation would be needed to realize a more streamwise ingest.
Current Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) guidance has been suggesting stronger rotation potential into southern Iowa closer to the effective warm front, where SRH values should be locally enhanced and better potential for streamwise ingest. While it is important to note that updraft-helicity (UH) tracks do not equal tornado tracks, it does provide an idea of SRH that is in the atmosphere and ability for low-level mesosyclone intensification. The HRRR has been indicating some tracks in north-central Missouri with initial development along with some of the WoFS runs, however, the greater magnitudes and probabilities have been shifting northward. With that being said, there is some CAPE within the hail growth zone, and in this high theta-e mid-summer air mass, the low-level shear and mesocyclone with even crosswise vorticity could actually help some hail embryos grow despite unimpressive mid-level lapse rates with discrete storms. Then finally, model soundings suggest decent theta- e deficits within the convective boundary layer that could promote negatively buoyant downdrafts resulting in damaging wind gusts.
Eventually, the discrete storm potential is expected to start growing upscale as the previously mentioned cold front begins to move eastward as dCVA picks up and the surface cyclone slides eastward. The LLJ should also be ramping up during this time period after 7pm. Expecting a linear storm mode to develop after 00z, mainly presenting a wind threat between stronger negative buoyancy downdrafts developing as well as precipitation dragging LLJ momentum toward the surface. There may be some hail threat along the cold front with initial updrafts but after congealing should mainly be a wind threat. At the moment, 0-3km bulk shear vector will be oriented primarily parallel to the cold front and associated line of storms.
Thinking that mesovortex generation and associated QLCS tornado threat would be largely limited, but will need to watch out for surges along the line that could reorient it. Watch for subsequent mesoscale discussions on threats associated with the QLCS later this evening, mainly after 00z (7pm CDT). Eventually, cold front sweeps through the area, and pushes most of the storm activity out of our forecast area by 05-06z. As for flooding and hydrology related concerns, the storms should be rather progressive. However, with PWATs near 2.5 inches across most of the warm sector ahead of the cold front, storms can be very efficient rainfall producers in a short period of time. For the KC metro, HRRR mean values are around 0.75 inches, with probability matched mean values near 1.30 inches.
Current guidance suggests flooding in the KC metro could start with 1.5 inches for both 1-hour and 3-hour time ranges. Therefore, with recent flooding events, have included our western counties in the flash flood watch. For our northeast and north-central counties, while recent rainfall has not been as heavy, greater synoptic scale lift along with two rounds of storms potential this afternoon and evening could result in rainfall amounts between 2-3 inches, with locally higher amounts of 4 inches possible based on HRRR probability-matched mean guidance. Although these areas outside of the metro can handle heavier rain, these thresholds may be met, and thus have issued the flood watch east and northeast as well through 12z Wednesday morning. In additional to flash flooding and areal flooding, flooding concerns continue along the Missouri River and other tributaries that flow into it.
The weather pattern remains active through the end of this week, and could impact July 4th holiday. The cold front on Wednesday likely stalls nears the Ozarks, and could produce more rain shower and thunderstorm activity in our southern counties. However, this will largely depend on instability and atmospheric recovery. Another short-wave ejects and mid-latitude cyclone develops that could bring another round of severe storms to the area on Thursday, along with heavy rainfall. Specific mesoscale details will analyzed at a later time. Temperatures will continue to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the end of this week.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Band of scattered showers and thunderstorms along I-70 is expected to gradually shift east throughout the overnight.
Visibility should only be briefly reduced in the heavier storms.
After 18Z Wednesday, there is the potential for additional showers/thunderstorms though timing and coverage is unclear.
Surface winds are expected to be light through the period.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ002>008-012>017- 020>025-028>032-037>039-043-044.
KS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-102>105.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KIXD
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KIXD
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KIXD
Wind History graph: IXD
(wind in knots)
Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,
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