Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 7:08 PM   Moonset 5:15 AM

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FXUS63 KEAX 231807 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 107 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this morning, primarily across northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri. No severe storms are expected.

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms Thursday through Sunday.
Slight risk of severe storms Friday.

- Heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding with Saturday Night into Sunday System.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move into portions of far northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri this morning.
This modest activity remains focused along a surface boundary slowly sinking south-southeast into the region. Associated with the mid- level short wave trough pivoting across the Boundary Waters, the outstretched surface trough has been a focus for convection Monday evening, and finally beginning to move into the region this morning.
Through Sunrise, expect scattered showers and storms to continue, working with sufficient mid-level moisture and some pockets of weak elevated instability. The greatest chances will remain along and north of US 36 but lingering activity will make the Ozark Plateau by midday. Rainfall amounts will be minor, a few hundredths to one or two tenths. Temperatures will remain near normal, with afternoon highs around 70 F.

High pressure will settle across the area into Wednesday as shallow, but broad, ridging develops from the southwest CONUS to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Dry conditions will exist while temps remain near normal. Into Thursday, precip chances will increase through the day as broadscale ascent develops ahead of a mid-level western shortwave lifting across the Four Corners. With a surface low developing over the western High Plains of CO/KS, ample moisture return will combine with decent isentropic ascent for showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening across the region.
To the west, across central Kansas, a ribbon of instability will pool through the afternoon ahead of the eastward push of the dryline. With a negative tilt to the H500 trough as it pivots to the northeast out of CO into WY/NE, decent dynamics will exist for organized convection from far south central Nebraska, through central Kansas, into Oklahoma through the afternoon hours. Activity in central Kansas through the evening will likely consolidate into a line or cluster through midnight and move into the area Friday morning.

Through early Friday morning, strong convection will likely be ongoing with strong large scale ascent persisting with the continued east-northeast lift of the mid-level short wave trough into central Nebraska. It's a bit early to get into the details, but with southwesterly flow, we might develop a modest EML through the midday hours, but an axis of instability will continue to develop with DESI LREF mean Surface CAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/Kg along the MO/KS border through the afternoon. Given the strong negative tilt of the upper trough, the parameters are there for severe convection across the area through the afternoon. With all that being said, the early morning/overnight convection will more than likely influence recovery and with southwest flow through the lower levels, we might have a lingering capping inversion to deal with. At this time, I've agreed with SPC highlighting a 15% (Slight) Risk over the past few days and continuing today for Friday afternoon. Any storms would pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

Brief negative ridging aloft will follow the exit of the Friday short wave to the north-northeast. Any reprieve will be short lived as a digging H500 trough emerges from the Four Corners on Saturday.
Into the evening, increasing broadscale ascent across the central Plains will result in increasing thunderstorm chances by the afternoon within the warm sector ahead of the surface low wrapping up over southwestern Kansas. Overnight, with the aid of a strong LLJ, convection will spread across eastern Kansas into Missouri.
With PWATs 1.50 to 2.00" forecast across the area, there's increasing concern for flooding and flash flooding as storms will likely train along the surface warm front across northeastern Kansas into northwestern Missouri. The good news, because we've been in a moderate drought, for most locations, we can likely manage a good bit of water, but we're going to have to keep a close watch on streams and rivers through the weekend for quick rises, especially if we get several rounds of rain over the same locations overnight into Sunday morning. Showers and storms will likely linger through Sunday night before finally clearing to the east.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast period. Isolated showers are progressing eastward away from KIXD. Gusty NW winds continue through the afternoon dissipating after sunset. Winds become light and variable overnight continuing through the end of the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.

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Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,