Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lawrence, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Mid-level water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a stout upper low across the northern Plains with southwest flow extending across much of the central CONUS. Weak zonal flow and troughing exists across the western US with a streak of upper-level moisture pushing in from Baja California within a sub-tropical jet streak. Across northeastern Kansas, a tight pressure gradient following a cold front last night remains laid out across the area with gusty westerly winds keeping conditions this afternoon much less muggy and slightly cooler than yesterday. Expect temperatures to top out in the low 80s this afternoon with winds decreasing around sunset this evening. Overnight tonight, a mid-level perturbation associated with the aforementioned upper low advects over Kansas and should help to push a secondary cold front/surface low through the area. This could bring some gusty winds to east-central Kansas early Friday morning with winds shifting towards the northwest as the frontal boundary slides through the area by mid Friday morning. Similar conditions will persist for the afternoon Friday as highs again top out in the low 80s with mostly sunny skies.

The forecast area should remain dry through Saturday afternoon before moisture advection begins to return to the area Saturday evening and into Sunday. A weak mid-level wave will begin to work its way across the southern Plains Saturday afternoon that could help to bring some showers and a few rumbles of thunder to southeast portions of the CWA, but best chances for any precipitation remains south of the area until Sunday.

By Sunday morning, southwest flow begins to increase aloft as a deepening trough axis advects in from the central Rockies. Lee cyclogenesis will further deepen a surface low in eastern Colorado further helping to push moisture north across Kansas. By Sunday afternoon, deterministic guidance is hinting at a warm front lifting north into central Kansas with a very ripe warm sector to its south.
A dry line setting up somewhere across south-central Kansas also seems likely as the surface low begins to eject into western Kansas.
With MLCIN decreasing into the afternoon, MLCAPE ranging from 2000- 3000 J/kg, 40-50 knots of 0-6 km shear and looping hodographs should set up across the warm sector pointing to a great set up for supercells and severe weather in the late afternoon and evening Sunday. Any storms that can develop along the dry line to our west or on the warm front will be capable of all hazards including large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. All that said, there is still a fair amount of variability between guidance this far out...mainly with where surface features set up. Currently, the GFS and SREF keeps the warm front the furthest north with the NAM and EURO keeping the frontal boundaries south of I-70. Some guidance even tries to bring the dry line as far east as Salina indicating the potential for dry line storms in the late afternoon. As previously mentioned, confidence is low in where severe weather will occur, but at this point, the parameters needed for severe storms should be in place across the region.

Monday will see another chance for severe weather across the area as the main trough axis begins to slide east across the area. Current thinking is that how things play out Sunday will largely impact how the severe threat on Monday plays out. If storms from Sunday evening linger into Monday morning and insulate the area for much of the day, it may be hard for us to regenerate much instability needed for severe storms. There are also chances that a frontal boundary associated with the main upper low shifts across the area Monday in the morning, limiting chances for storms in the afternoon. Will need to keep an eye on trends in the coming days to see how things continue to set up. Storm chances persist into the mid week next week as the upper low hangs across the central Plains. That said, following the frontal boundary Monday, most surface moisture needed for severe weather will be shunted east of the area so severe chances at this point in time remain low. With lots of cloud cover and rain chances, expect temperatures Tuesday into Thursday to be cooler, topping out in the 60s and 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

With a shallow inversion setting up once again overnight through sunrise, the potential for LLWS conditions appear high enough to mention for a few hours overnight until the 850mb trough shifts east of the terminals. Should notice an uptick in wind speeds through FL015 as a result for any early flights this morning generally from the WSW. Winds increase at the surface as mixing quickly takes place and the winds veer to the WNW with gusts increasing midday into the afternoon.



TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.