Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence, KS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 8:06PM Friday August 23, 2019 4:50 PM CDT (21:50 UTC) Moonrise 11:38PMMoonset 1:16PM Illumination 42% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, KS
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location: 38.93, -95.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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Fxus63 ktop 232051
afdtop
area forecast discussion
national weather service topeka ks
351 pm cdt Fri aug 23 2019

Short term (this evening through Saturday)
issued at 349 pm cdt Fri aug 23 2019
slight chances for showers and storms will be the norm through the
first half of the weekend.

Currently, a very weak ill-defined mid level shortwave convectively
induced vort MAX continues to work through western into central
kansas helping to give support to a small cluster of storms over
central kansas which has been back building into south central and
southwestern portions of kansas within a more unstable airmass.

Little flow in the pattern remains over the area with tropical air
residing over the southern portions of the CONUS and the main
westerly flow displaced well to the north of the area over the
extreme northern tier of the conus. A positively tilted trough
extends back into the great lakes region while a weak cut-off low is
over the northern rockies.

Convection over the foothills of the rockies is anticipated to
continue to develop and organize into late over night which will
have potential implications for the Saturday morning forecast for
mainly north central kansas. Current afternoon showers and storms
should diminish as the boundary layer stabilizes after sunset over
north central areas. Steepening low level lapse rates may cause
some gusty outflow winds with these storms but severe weather is not
anticipated. As for the previously mentioned convection over
eastern co, an MCS should be allowed to be supported into the
overnight as storms congeal and advance east and make a run for the
area by early morning. The LLJ overnight remains focused mainly out
over western kansas, so storms should be allowed to weaken as they
move into north central areas. Expecting the result will be remnant
showers and storms into Saturday morning across western portions of
the area. Can't rule out spotty afternoon convection with daytime
heating. High temperatures top out around 80 degrees with cloud
cover in place much of the day beginning with low stratus due to the
moist low levels.

Long term (Saturday night through Friday)
issued at 349 pm cdt Fri aug 23 2019
the mid to long range forecast will likely see periodic chances for
showers and storms with possibly some severe potential on Monday
afternoon associated with a fairly strong cold front for this time
of year.

Saturday night into Sunday morning will see another complex of
storms develop over northwestern ks into south central NE before
advancing southeast overnight mainly bringing a heavy rain threat to
western portions of the area. Exact track of most intense storms
may just be west of the area though, so flash flood concerns right
now would likely also be focused over central in western portions of
kansas. The LLJ does appear to veer and weaken as storms move
through the area on Sunday morning as well again with focus for the
strongest convergence over western areas should storms with heavy
rainfall move into the area.

Afternoon storms move through the area, upper pattern transitions to
a more northwest flow component into Monday with a surface boundary
bisecting the area from southwest to northeast. An area of low
pressure deepens over the panhandle of tx. Strong instability and
sufficient shear ahead of the boundary could give rise to afternoon
storms during this Monday afternoon time frame and can't rule out
severe weather with mainly a wind and hail threat along with heavy
rainfall. Winds appear to be more southwesterly along the boundary
so a tornado threat would appear low at this time.

Main change with the long term forecast was to reduce pops during
the Wednesday time frame as high pressure sets up over the area and
an overall dry airmass should set up across the area. Dewpoints
could be the best part of this setup as they may fall into the
50s.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1153 am cdt Fri aug 23 2019
with an easterly low level wind and lack of dry air advection
expected, lower CIGS are likely to move back in overnight. The
model consensus has this between 06z and 09z. Also decent low
level winds are expected to maintain some mixing of the boundary
layer favoring stratus over fog. Forcing for precip is forecast to
increase through the morning Saturday. But much of the guidance,
save the nam, continues to show convection falling apart as it
moves in from the west with maybe some isolated showers near the
terminals. Will include a vcsh at mhk while leaving the forecast
for top and foe dry for now based on the majority of solutions.

Top watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... Drake
long term... Drake
aviation... Wolters


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS9 mi58 minE 12 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F68°F53%1015.4 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS18 mi57 minE 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F68°F59%1015.3 hPa
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS18 mi57 minESE 1110.00 miA Few Clouds84°F68°F59%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLWC

Wind History from LWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E5--NE3--------------E5--E3E5--E6--E7E7E11--E9
G18
E12
G17
1 day agoE11
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NE6CalmN3Calm----NE8----------E5E3--NE5----S3NE3E8E7NE5
2 days ago--SE10S10SE7----E4------------N12
G29
NW13----SE8SE6S4NW15
G19
N6--NE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.