Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence, KS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 5:01PM Sunday December 15, 2019 5:03 PM CST (23:03 UTC) Moonrise 8:43PMMoonset 10:38AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, KS
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location: 38.93, -95.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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FXUS63 KTOP 152146 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 346 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 340 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

Snowfall should gradually end from west to east late this afternoon and evening as isentropic upglide and frontogenetical lift cease with increasing northerly flow through the column. Current radar trends still show elevated CSI being realized as banded snow from Dickinson to Jackson counties. These bands should decay from west to east with the loss of forcing. CAM guidance and short-term trends are in very good agreement in the snow coming to an end across the entire area by 9pm, which is the end time for both the northern Winter Weather Advisory and the Winter Storm Warning. Overall snow amounts have been coming in at around 3 to 6 inches, with localized amounts over 8 inches being reported as well.

A brief lull in the snowfall will continue for most of the overnight hours with subsidence occurring until the second round begins in east central KS a few hours before sunrise. This next batch comes ahead of the main trough axis swinging through western KS, and the CVA associated with this wave looks to be the main driver of this phase of the event as the baroclinic zone pushes south and east of the area, taking the frontogenetical forcing with it. Any cloud ice that would be lost this evening should be a non-issue for Monday due to the DGZ re-saturating once we get forcing for vertical motion in the morning. As such, have kept all snow through the day with the highest chances along and south of a line from Topeka to Council Grove. Models still vary slightly as to how far north we'll see any snow, so it's possible Topeka stays dry completely. Regardless, the northern half of the CWA should avoid this round of snow with east central KS expected to see it taper off in the evening as lift and saturation both decrease. Additional accumulations look to be another inch or two with potentially some locally higher amounts as the 18Z HRRR has hinted at some more narrow bands developing tomorrow.

Have trended high temperatures a bit cooler in eastern KS for tomorrow, in part because of the CAA regime expected to dominate the period, and also to account for the new snow pack in east central KS in particular. Most areas are forecast to stay in the upper 20s with north central KS reaching the low 30s, where snow amounts have been lower. With clouds clearing overnight after the system moves out, lows are forecast to drop to the teens area- wide.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 340 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

Dry weather is expected for the rest of the week as ridging builds in behind the Monday system. Another mid-level trough does look to deepen to our west on Thursday and pass south of the area on Friday, but precipitation is forecast to remain south at this time with our only impacts being increased cloud cover and breezy southerly winds. Temperatures are still dependent on snow pack and how quickly it melts under sunny skies, especially on Tuesday, but a general warming trend is expected late in the week with WAA returning late Wednesday into Thursday. If this trend verifies, more seasonal temperatures in the 40s would return for the second half of the week, if not slightly above average.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

Widespread LIFR to IFR snow gradually ends from west to east over the course of the afternoon and evening today, with MVFR to IFR stratus lingering through the overnight hours. Pockets of light freezing rain are possible southeast of a KEMP to KLWC line this afternoon. A second round of snow will impact areas mainly east of a KMPR to KSTJ line on Monday, producing MVFR to IFR restrictions as well. Winds will be light from the north to northeast through the TAF period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for KSZ009>012-021-034.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ040-054>056- 058-059.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ022>024-026-035>039.

Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for KSZ022>024- 026-035>039.



SHORT TERM . Picha/Skow LONG TERM . Picha AVIATION . Skow


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS9 mi71 minNNE 61.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist26°F21°F84%1016.3 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS18 mi70 minN 80.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist26°F21°F84%1016.2 hPa
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS18 mi70 minN 61.25 miLight Snow Fog/Mist25°F21°F85%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLWC

Wind History from LWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N73N5N4CalmE5NE5NE7NE6NE4NE4NE3E7E7E6NE8NE6E7NE8E8N7N6N7
1 day agoE3CalmCalmNW16
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2 days agoS3CalmE4SE3E3E5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE4CalmSE3S4S6SW8SE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.