Monday, November30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence, KS

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:00PM Monday November 30, 2020 10:35 AM CST (16:35 UTC) Moonrise 5:22PMMoonset 7:31AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, KS
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location: 38.93, -95.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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FXUS63 KTOP 301124 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 524 AM CST Mon Nov 30 2020

. Update to aviation forecast discussion .

DISCUSSION. Issued at 343 AM CST Mon Nov 30 2020

Chilly conditions this morning as 5-10 mph NW winds continue weak CAA across the area. 3 AM temperatures are generally in the mid- 20s, and should bottom out in the upper teens and low 20s. The coldest temperatures will likely be across north-central Kansas where winds are the lightest, closer to the surface ridge axis. This ridge axis will shift eastward through the day, with light winds backing to the west and eventually southwest as it moves through. Despite sunny skies, cold temperatures aloft will keep highs in the low to mid 40s, as any WAA on the back side of the ridge axis will be slow to occur. Temperatures tonight will once again drop into lower 20s, and possibly into the teens across northeast and east-central Kansas if winds can become near calm. The upper trough that brought in this cold air will continue moving east tomorrow, with shortwave ridging taking its place ahead of the next system. This will allow highs Tuesday to rebound to near average, generally in the upper 40s.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, two strong upper troughs will be diving into the central CONUS. The lead trough will move from Colorado southeast into the Oklahoma/Texas vicinity, while the second trough will drop nearly due south from Saskatchewan into the High Plains of Montana and Wyoming. This will set the stage for a complex interaction between the two troughs, almost a Fujiwhara effect as they pinwheel around each other and partially merge over the Central Plains. As they begin to interact Wednesday PM, an inverted trough should begin to form somewhere across OK/KS, with precipitation developing to the north of this feature. Boundary layer temperatures will initially be marginal, so rain or snow will be possible at first. Chances for rain to start out instead of snow will be greatest across east-central KS, where surface temperatures could initially be around 40. P-type will also partially be dependent on precipitation rate, where heavier precipitation may help cool the vertical column enough for snow, but rain becomes more likely with light rates. By later Wednesday evening though, CAA will likely allow boundary layer temperatures to cool enough that snow will become the predominant precipitation type. Additionally, the vertical column does appear to be well saturated throughout the entire profile, so ice crystal loss does not appear to be much of a concern with this system, except perhaps at the very end of precipitation on Thursday. As a result, most of any precipitation should be snow Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with some light rain perhaps mixing in Thursday afternoon as precipitation ends. The main questions then will be the location and intensity of main precipitation band, which again should be to the north of that inverted surface trough. Given the complexity of the interaction between the two shortwaves, and the high variability from both deterministic and ensemble guidance, these are questions that can't quite be pinned down yet. At the moment, the track of the lead upper low would likely favor areas south of I-70. Accumulations do look possible, but would likely be on the lighter end, at a coating to an inch or two. Can't rule out slightly higher amounts, but odds of this might be a bit better just to the south/southwest of the forecast area. Will continue to monitor over the next couple days to better pin down locations/amounts.

The rather convoluted and amplified upper pattern will continue Thursday night and into the weekend, with our shortwave trough helping to deepen the larger scale trough over the East Coast as it moves away from us. This will lead to northwest upper flow over the forecast area, which should help promote dry and gradually warming conditions into the weekend. Lows will remain in the 20s throughout this period, with highs in the mid 40s Friday warming to around 50 for the weekend.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 524 AM CST Mon Nov 30 2020

VFR conditions will continue with clear skies expected. NW winds around 10 kts this morning will back to the west this afternoon before weakening after sunset to southerly at around 3 kts.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

DISCUSSION . Reese AVIATION . Reese


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS9 mi44 minNW 1010.00 miFair32°F16°F52%1027.9 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS18 mi43 minNNW 1110.00 miFair30°F16°F56%1028 hPa
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS18 mi43 minW 510.00 miFair30°F16°F56%1028.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLWC

Wind History from LWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN19
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NW11NW13NW16NW15NW10NW9NW11NW10NW11NW11NW11NW8NW9NW8NW10NW10
1 day agoSW6SW8SW10SW12
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2 days agoNW6N6NW5NW10N10N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.