Sunday, May31, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence, KS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:41PM Sunday May 31, 2020 10:34 AM CDT (15:34 UTC) Moonrise 1:51PMMoonset 1:58AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, KS
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location: 38.93, -95.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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FXUS63 KTOP 311058 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 558 AM CDT Sun May 31 2020

. Update to aviation forecast discussion .

SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) Issued at 349 AM CDT Sun May 31 2020

Early this morning, showers have been slowly moving through central and northeast KS associated with weak isentropic lift ahead of a small circulation in eastern CO. These scattered showers will continue until a few hours after sunrise when the isentropic lift weakens. Otherwise, the 500mb ridge currently over the Rockies will amplify today with strengthening 850mb winds from the southwest, helping to warm temperatures to the low to mid 80s. Have trended on the warmer side of guidance as decent mixing should allow southerly winds to increase to 10-20mph with gusts of 20-30mph, strongest toward central KS.

For tonight, decided to add slight chance PoPs mainly for north central and parts of northeast KS between 06-12Z. While the NAM/GFS/ECMWF have backed off on this potential the last couple of days, short-term guidance (namely the 00Z HRRR/HRRRv4 and 03Z RAP) have all picked up on small chances of showers associated with a subtle mid-level wave on the periphery of the ridge. This wave is also likely associated with the weak circulation currently in CO. Thinking the consistency between these models is enough to at least add a mention of showers, but kept the chances small at this point. Outside of this, expect breezy southerly winds to keep overnight temps fairly warm with lows in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM. (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 349 AM CDT Sun May 31 2020

The main focus for now is on the heat through this week. With the upper ridge remaining dominant over the southern CONUS and breezy southerly winds continuing to usher in warmer and more humid air, confidence is high for temperatures to reach the upper 80s to low 90s at least through Wednesday, especially with morning lows only falling back to the upper 60s to low 70s. Beyond Wednesday, confidence in the forecast becomes lower as differences remain between models in regards to chances for showers and thunderstorms. At this point, a trough moving through southern Canada flattens the ridge and pushes a weak front southward through our area, bringing the next best precipitation chance Wednesday night into Thursday. The ECMWF continues to be the most progressive with this front, which would keep most areas dry the rest of the week, while the GFS tends to wash out the boundary over KS with additional rounds of storms possible. As such, confidence in whether temperatures stay in the 90s the rest of the week is low as these storms and cloud cover could keep conditions cooler.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 552 AM CDT Sun May 31 2020

With scattered showers in the area, will keep VCSH until 13Z before rain should dissipate across northeast KS. Winds will increase from the SSE and gradually turn south this evening, gusting around 20 kts during the daytime hours. Marginal LLWS is a possibility overnight, but sfc winds may be strong enough that shear doesn't reach criteria, so have left this out for now for future shifts to evaluate. Otherwise VFR conditions prevail.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . Picha LONG TERM . Picha AVIATION . Picha


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS9 mi43 minESE 910.00 miFair70°F55°F59%1024.2 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS18 mi42 minSE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F57°F64%1023.5 hPa
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS18 mi42 minSE 1010.00 miFair70°F55°F59%1023.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLWC

Wind History from LWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6SE6SE7E4E4NE7E9E7E7E5NE9NE10E8E5E4E5E5E4E5CalmE6E5SE10SE9
1 day agoN8N9
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NW8N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6E5E4
2 days agoW5W4NW6N8N10N8S7SE3N5N5CalmNW4NW6NW5NW5NW4NW7NW8NW8NW9N9N7NW5W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Topeka, KS (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.