Thursday, January21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence, KS

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 5:31PM Thursday January 21, 2021 2:43 PM CST (20:43 UTC) Moonrise 12:16PMMoonset 1:10AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, KS
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location: 38.93, -95.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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FXUS63 KTOP 211721 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1121 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021

. Update to aviation forecast discussion .

DISCUSSION. Issued at 302 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021

Broad westerly to northwesterly flow at 500 mb this morning across the central CONUS while expansive, surface high pressure encompasses the region. A weak cold front stretches over north central Kansas dividing the overcast high clouds towards the southern CWA and clear skies to the north. Sfc moisture this morning advecting from northeast Oklahoma attempts to develop fog and/or low stratus that lifts into southeast Kansas later this morning. Latest runs from the HRRR and RAP are consistent with the higher dewpoints and subsequent dense fog potential remaining just south of Coffey and Anderson counties later this morning. Thursday should be the final mild afternoon across the area as high pressure slides eastward, as light winds prevail in the 5 to 10 mph range. The drier airmass in place coupled with highs in the mid to upper 50s once again result in minimum RH values dropping from 23 to 30 percent area wide by late afternoon. However, as the winds hold on the lighter side, fire danger should be limited to the high category.

Passing high clouds insulate Friday morning lows some in the mid to upper 20s before a stronger push of colder air arrives in the afternoon as highs manage to reach the upper 30s.

Focus turns towards the weekend into early next week as a series of embedded shortwave troughs eject into the central and southern plains ahead of a longwave trough poised to provide multiple chances for wintry precip through Wednesday of next week. Very weak isentropic lift begins to develop as early as Saturday morning across north central Kansas before increasing in coverage over much of the CWA Saturday evening as the sfc low traverses southern Kansas. Track of this sfc low and attendant upper trough axis to the north continues to defer via deterministic and ensemble solutions through Sunday as a deformation band develops along the northwest quadrant of the sfc low. If this comes to be, a mix of freezing rain and snow would be possible along the highway 36 corridor while any precip that develops elsewhere to be in the form of rain. At this time, any freezing precip would be minimal with only trace amounts anticipated.

By Monday, a more potent and progressive shortwave trough surges over the southern plains, while lifting the sfc low axis to our south and east, resulting in widespread precip lifting north and east over the region. This would also align our area being below freezing for the onset. 850-925 mb temps are near or just above freezing on the latest GFS while the ECMWF and Canadian runs are similar in that the entire forecast column is below freezing throughout the period, suggesting all snow as opposed to mixed precipitation. Sfc temps could also warm in our southern CWA above freezing for the afternoon. Wide ranging ensemble solutions suggest low confidence in precip type at this point, however confidence is beginning to increase in some type of winter precip causing travel concerns on Monday. As the primary longwave trough gradually lifts over the southern plains, additional rain and snow chances return by Wednesday. For this issuance, slight chances ere kept due to inconsistencies on timing and location between model runs.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1121 AM CST Thu Jan 21 2021

Winds remain light throughout the period, starting from the WNW and veering slowly to the north by this evening as a weak frontal boundary moves in. Winds then slowly turn toward the northeast through tomorrow morning. Some mid to high clouds increase from the north tomorrow morning as well, with VFR conditions set to continue for the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

DISCUSSION . 22 AVIATION . Picha


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, KS9 mi52 minSSW 510.00 miFair57°F23°F27%1013.5 hPa
Topeka, Forbes Field, KS18 mi51 minSSW 710.00 miFair59°F22°F24%1013.3 hPa
Topeka, Philip Billard Municipal Airport, KS18 mi51 minW 610.00 miFair58°F26°F29%1013.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLWC

Wind History from LWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW15SW15
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S10SE4SW3SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--------W3NW4CalmCalmSW5
1 day agoNW15
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N9N9W3CalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3SE5SE4CalmSE5SE4S7SW21
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2 days agoE7NE9NE9N5N5N4NW5CalmN5NW5NW5CalmCalmNW4NW7NW5NW6NW7NW6NW9W13W13W9NW13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.