Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Portage Des Sioux, MO

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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
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Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:41PM Monday December 16, 2019 1:03 AM CST (07:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:33PMMoonset 11:01AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Portage Des Sioux, MO
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location: 38.94, -90.3     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 160601 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1201 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 915 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

I have made some big adjustments to the forecast for Monday.

In the short term the tonight period is evolving pretty much as expected. The coverage of snow continues to diminish this evening across the northern CWA as forcing shifts to the east with the translation of a weak low amplitude short wave, and any additional snow accumulations will be quite light this evening. This area will eventually see a loss of cloud ice overnight and transition to freezing drizzle with light glazing possible. Further south we have already lost cloud ice across most of the area along and south of I-70 and thus freezing drizzle will dominate the remainder of the night with light glazing expected.

The new 00z NAM and at least the last 3 runs of the RAP are now indicating much higher snow totals on Monday. An impressive deformation zone is expected to evolve in response to large scale forcing for ascent associated with a impressive migratory short wave, strengthening mid level frontogenetic forcing, and divergence within the entrance region of an ULJ streak. This band should evolve during the morning and strengthen thru the afternoon spreading from southwest/south central MO along a Rolla- St. Louis-Litchfield line. Snow should exit to the east during the evening. Snowfall rates within this band will approach an inch per hour at times. I think additional snow accumulations with the band will be in the 3-5 inch range along the aforementioned axis centered through St. Louis. No changes to headlines are warranted at this time.

Glass

Issued at 727 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

I have made a quick update for this evening to account for the more persistent narrow snow band currently extending from near Wellsville MO through Kampsville to Palmyra IL. This band is likely producing rates up to an inch an hour. I think it will persist another hour or two gradually pulling east-northeast and weakening. Storm totals within the vicinity of this band could be in the 6-8 inch range.

Along and south of I-70 the loss of cloud ice has brought an end to measurable snow tonight and freezing drizzle should be the predominant ptype with light ice accumulations.

Glass

SHORT TERM. (Through Late Monday Night) Issued at 331 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

Early this afternoon, a very broad-based TROF extended over much of the CONUS with a W-SW flow aloft/WAA regime over our region. The strong storm system that we have been watching carefully was near the Four Corners region in the southwest CONUS. At the surface, an area of high pressure was centered over northern Illinois and central Indiana with easterly flow over our region. A developing surface inverted TROF was poking into southwest MO. Skies were overcast across our region. Of most note was the heavy snow band as forecast, but this has now drifted through much of the I-70 corridor and is looking to settle a bit more in position through early this evening. Temperatures were in the 20s for areas near and north of I- 70 and into the low 30s for areas south of I-70.

The WAA snow, locally enhanced by strong frontogenesis with that heavy snow band just north of I-70, will gradually exit this evening being replaced by a regime exhibiting a loss of cloud ice and weak WAA. In addition, the inverted surface TROF will track east across Missouri and southern Illinois and should create low level convergence to develop areas of freezing drizzle for much of tonight. This will continue into early Monday morning.

The main system is still expected to track E-NE through the main flow and approach and move by our region later on Monday and into Monday night. Lift will deepen, restore cloud ice to much of the area, and result in an expansion of snow later on Monday morning and continue through Monday evening before finally pulling out. The best areas for additional snow accumulation look to be near and north of I-70 with a snow/freezing rain scenario continuing for areas further south. The upper level LO tracks continue to favor what looks to be an additional 2-3" of snow possible for many of the same areas affected by the heavy snow band today.

Between the already fallen/expected snow accums and forecasted ice accums, much of the Warning/Advisory stratification looks justified and will continue with this issuance.

TES

LONG TERM. (Tuesday through Next Sunday) Issued at 331 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

The weather still looks relatively quiet for Tuesday through next Sunday. Cold temperatures are still expected Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold high pressure system builds into Missouri and Illinois behind the storm . especially Tuesday night when light wind, fresh snow and clear sky will produce excellent radiational cooling conditions. Highs mainly in the low to mid 30s and lows in the teens to low 20s continue to look reasonable. Wind turns back to the south on Thursday as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley and further east. Widespread highs in the 40s with even some low 50s in southeast Missouri look likely with lows mainly in the 30s. There's still a possibility of a little rain on Friday. The ECMWF and GFS are in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move from the Great Plains through the Midwest Friday into Friday night. However, the GFS has a more progressive trough than the EC does. It's also been consistently printing out very light QPF ahead of the trough, while the ECMWF has been alternating dry-wet-now dry again. Am keeping the forecast dry at this time as the QPF that the GFS prints out is very light and will likely have little or no impact even if it does rain. Saturday and Sunday continue to look dry with highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s.

Carney

AVIATION. (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night) Issued at 1142 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

IFR flight conditions will continue to impact the St. Louis region overnight with periods of light freezing drizzle. Further west at KCOU flight conditions overnight could vary between IFR and low- end MVFR with a period or two of light freezing drizzle. KUIN may have the best flight conditions with MVFR expected and maybe some brief freezing drizzle.

A new round of snow is expected on Monday. This band of snow will predominately impact the St. Louis area terminals starting around 14-15z with moderate and potentially heavy snow from 16z-21z. The snow will also impact KCOU but intensity will be much lighter. IFR flight conditions are expected with the snow. This round of snow may remain south of KUIN.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

IFR flight conditions will continue to impact the terminal overnight with periods of light freezing drizzle. A new round of snow is expected on Monday. This band of snow will predominately impact KSTL starting around 14-15z with moderate and potentially heavy snow from 16z-21z. IFR flight conditions are expected with the snow. The snow intensity should diminish by late Monday evening with flight conditions also improving.

Glass

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Monday night for Crawford MO-Iron MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Madison MO-Marion MO- Reynolds MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO- Washington MO.

Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Monday night for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Warren MO.

IL . Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Monday night for Adams IL-Brown IL-Randolph IL.

Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Monday night for Bond IL- Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL- Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL- Pike IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.



WFO LSX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Louis Regional Airport, IL13 mi69 minN 53.00 miFog/Mist26°F25°F100%1017.6 hPa
St. Louis Lambert International Airport, MO13 mi73 minN 83.00 miLight Freezing Drizzle Fog/Mist26°F24°F92%1018.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSET

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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (2,6,7,8)
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