Marine Weather and Tides
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 5:47AM||Sunset 8:26PM||Thursday July 16, 2020 10:51 AM CDT (15:51 UTC)||Moonrise 1:21AM||Moonset 3:56PM||Illumination 14%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Portage Des Sioux, MOHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KLSX 161128 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion . Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 628 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020
SHORT TERM. (Through Late Friday Afternoon) Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020
A surface low early this morning was located in northwestern Indiana with a cold front draped southwestward through the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. This front is expected to slow its progress equatorward early today, before stalling out across Arkansas into the mid south. Further north in our neck of the woods, the sensible weather should be controlled by a weak surface high pressure. This anticyclone should help promote plenty of afternoon sunshine after early morning fog evaporates and stratus advects and lifts east of the Mississippi River. The airmass which has filtered into the area is certainly cooler and drier than yesterday behind the cold frontal passage of last evening. Nothing anomalous for mid July, but seasonable levels of humidity and afternoon high temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees isn't too bad for a midsummer's day.
Some increase in cloudiness is expected tonight across portions of southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois as the stalled front should drift at least slightly north toward the Missouri-Arkansas border. However, the boundary should stay far enough south to yield a dry night areawide with low temperatures dropping into the mid 60s to low 70s.
Models suggest that the front should continue to migrate northward on Friday, though guidance is divergent with the specifics. Some models suggest this front largely washes out as it heads northward while others keep it more coherent. In addition, the current MCS across the south-central Plains is likely to spawn an MCV which should migrate eastward with time. This feature (if it can maintain its identity) may help initiate thunderstorms along the retreating warm front on Friday. Not a high confidence forecast by any means, but did want to keep low PoPs roughly focused near the boundary for Friday. The uncertainty with the frontal position/timing and possible thunderstorms also lends itself to question marks for high temperatures and associated heat index values. The most likely solution is that storms do not have too much of an effect unless they develop early enough in the day and are more widespread than currently forecast. Some warming and moistening at the surface is likely with high temperatures mostly in the low 90s. Those values combined with dewpoints climbing back into the low to mid 70s are expected to yield peak heat index values across portions of central, east-central, and southeast Missouri at or slightly above 100 degrees. While magnitude heat advisory criteria (105F+) is not out of the realm of possibility on Friday afternoon, it appears unlikely, particularly for anything widespread.
LONG TERM. (Friday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020
(Friday Night - Sunday)
The focus for this weekend remains on dangerous heat and humidity. Confidence is increasing that this weekend will be the most oppressive conditions so far this summer. The highest heat index values of 105-110F are likely on Saturday due to the combination of high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Sunday will be nearly similar, but may feel a tick or two lower as afternoon dewpoints drop ever so slightly. Unlike Friday, not seeing too much in the way that will prevent this heat from happening this weekend. While there is some weak signal for some storms near the retreating warm front east of the Mississippi River, they look to be mainly diurnally driven and likely isolated in nature. Regardless, it certainly looks very hot and humid across the entire area.
Speaking of high temperatures early next week, there is increasing consensus in deterministic and ensemble model guidance of a cold front dropping down toward the region sometime early next week. The key will be how strong the trough is moving across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. At this point, continue to have my doubts that any cold front will make it through the CWA given the upper air pattern and climatology, but it should get at least close enough to increase chances of showers and thunderstorms. The airmass overhead also shows signs of cooling slightly toward the end of the extended forecast, with the GEFS/EPS mean 850-hPa temperatures back to near to slightly above normal. Bottom line, the preponderance of the evidence suggests at least some modicum of cooling in the Monday-Wednesday time frame, but exactly how much will depend on how far south the front ultimately gets. For now, went with a gradual cooling trend with highs mostly in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Regarding the possibility of heat products, it appears at least an advisory beginning Saturday is becoming increasingly. However, there is still time to further pin down the details on the area and length given lesser confidence in forecast high temperatures early next week. In addition, the type of product (advisory vs. warning) could be in question as 4 days in a row of 105+ heat index values are possible for portions of the area Saturday through Tuesday. The area with the better chance of observing excessive heat warning criteria due to duration appears to be from in and around the St. Louis metropolitan area into portions of southwest Illinois.
AVIATION. (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning) Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020
Focus initially this morning will be on lingering fog at KCOU and KUIN and scattered MVFR ceilings along the Mississippi River and eastward affecting the metro terminals. The good news is conditions should improve quickly this morning. Dry/VFR weather is forecast from mid morning through tonight with a light and variable wind.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
Continue to watch scattered cloud deck with bases around 1500 feet above ground level. Believe the brunt of it will stay east, but cannot rule out a brief period of BKN015. Otherwise, dry/VFR conditions are forecast through Friday morning with a light and variable wind.
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . None. IL . None.
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|St. Charles, St. Charles County Smartt Airport, MO||7 mi||58 min||NNW 8||10.00 mi||Fair||77°F||66°F||71%||1018.1 hPa|
|St. Louis Regional Airport, IL||13 mi||62 min||N 6||10.00 mi||Partly Cloudy||73°F||69°F||89%||1019 hPa|
|St. Louis Lambert International Airport, MO||13 mi||61 min||NW 6||10.00 mi||Partly Cloudy||77°F||66°F||71%||1018.1 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KSET
Wind History from SET (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||S||SE||SE||SE||SE|
|2 days ago||SE||S||E||Calm||E||E||E||E||E||E||E||SE||E||E||E||E||E||E||E||E||SE||S||S |
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GEOS Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (11,2,3,4)(on/off)  Help
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