Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Portage Des Sioux, MO

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:16PM Thursday July 29, 2021 9:28 AM CDT (14:28 UTC) Moonrise 10:40PMMoonset 10:44AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Portage Des Sioux, MO
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location: 38.94, -90.3     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 291133 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 633 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SHORT TERM. (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

The strong upper level ridge remains in place across the western two thirds of the CONUS with a shortwave moving through the NW flow over the Great Lakes. At the surface, the center of a broad high is situated near the Missouri bootheel. To our north, there is a low centered near the WI/MN/IA borders associated with the shortwave, a cold front extending to the WSW of the low, and a rather robust QLCS moving south through northern Illinois.

The QLCS has finally begun to weaken, but it is moving in a much further south than any guidance anticipated. While the odds of any of this precipitation reaching our CWA are low, we're likely going to see quite a bit of cloud coverage this morning, especially over our Illinois counties. These clouds will likely limit temperatures a bit, but WSW surface and low level winds will continue to advect very warm and moist air into the region. Given a warm start to the day and dewpoints in the 70s, heat advisory criteria (HX over 105) still seems like a safe bet despite more clouds than expected, especially along and west of the Mississippi. Therefore will be keeping the heat advisory in place as-is.

The above cold front is expected to push into the region sometime this evening as the upper ridge begins to break down. Most of the CAMs develop at least isolated/scattered storms along the front, which seems reasonable given the frontal forcing and mid/upper level height falls. While storm coverage may be limited a bit by very warm temps just above the surface, storms seem pretty likely at this point. These storms will develop in a very unstable and moderately sheared atmosphere, which may allow a few storms to become strong to severe. However, with only 20-25kt 0-3km bulk shear, storm organization and severe potential will be limited, with damaging winds and large hail being the initial threats. As the front begins to stall overnight, we may see some storm training. Most storms should be very efficient rainfall producers given precipitable water near 2" and warm cloud depths near 4km. If any areas are hit by multiple rounds of storms, some flooding may be possible.

BSH

LONG TERM. (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

The upper ridge will finally break down as we move into the weekend thanks to an amplifying trough over the eastern CONUS. A series of shortwaves will bring reinforcing shots of seasonably cool air into the region, keeping the front laid out somewhere in the vicinity of the middle Mississippi/lower Missouri River Vallies. While uncertainty remains regarding frontal positioning, the stalled/slow moving front may result in multiple rounds of showers and storms for some areas. While the latest guidance is highlighting Saturday with the highest odds for precipitation, there is at least a chance of precipitation somewhere in the CWA from Friday through Saturday. Any storms that do develop will also likely be rather efficient rainfall producers given ample precipitable water along and south of the front. This again may result in at least isolated flash flooding in areas that do see multiple rounds of storms.

The upper trough to our east will continue to deepen into next week, eventually pushing the front out of the region. This will put an end to our rainfall chances and result in a continued period of cooler conditions through midweek.

BSH

AVIATION. (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning) Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

VFR conditions will prevail today as winds turn WSW and become a bit breezy. A cold front is expected to move into the area from the north late this afternoon, moving through all terminals though the evening. At least isolated showers are expected to develop along the front as it moves into the area, but confidence on exact timing and storm coverage is low at this time. Therefore have gone with just VCTS at all terminals when storms will be most likely. If any terminals are directly impacted by storms, conditions will quickly fall to MVFR or IFR levels. Winds will turn to the NNE behind the front.

BSH

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Saint Louis 97 74 86 67 / 5 40 30 40 Quincy 92 71 82 64 / 30 40 20 70 Columbia 95 74 87 70 / 0 30 30 40 Jefferson City 96 76 89 71 / 0 30 30 30 Salem 97 70 84 63 / 5 40 10 20 Farmington 96 72 88 67 / 0 20 40 10

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO- Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO- Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO- Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL . Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Adams IL-Bond IL- Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL- Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair-Washington IL.



WFO LSX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Charles, St. Charles County Smartt Airport, MO7 mi34 minN 06.00 miFair with Haze82°F75°F79%1016.4 hPa
St. Louis Regional Airport, IL13 mi38 minVar 46.00 miFair with Haze84°F77°F79%1017.3 hPa
St. Louis Lambert International Airport, MO13 mi37 minWNW 49.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F75°F74%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSET

Wind History from SET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm3W4W5W3W3SW33SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalm34N76SE5SE5E5NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW3CalmCalm
2 days agoE3E4E3E7E5E4NE6NE6N5NE4NE3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalm

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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