Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manchester, CA

DISCUSSION
Rain rates increased by late morning as a fast moving front swept through Humboldt and Del Norte. Initial downfall estimates were on par as 1.8 to 2 inches have accumulated near coastal Del Norte. Northern Humboldt received around an inch and central Humboldt0.4 to 0.9 inches, with amounts decreasing as you proceed south. Radar reflectivity and IR satellite imagery shows the plume getting narrower as it streaks from the southwest. A few hundredths or tenths of additional precipitation will fall as the backside of the front causes warm air to rise and condense. Lingering light showers will continue but diminish by 00-01z, early evening.

Colder air will quickly move in behind the front into Monday. Low and midlevel clouds will clear, but stubborn high level clouds will keep skies hazy at best into midweek. Low valley fog and clouds will prevent conditions form dropping much below freezing overnight, even in Trinity County. Models continue to show highly uncertain and weak pulse of moisture around Wednesday. Unlike todays rain, this pulse would be focused in Mendocino and Lake COunties. This potential pulse is very uncertain. There is a roughly 30% chance of no rain at all around Wednesday, but another 30% show widespread rain of 0.5 inches. Regardless, impacts would be generally minimal.

Despite being further out in time, there is higher ensemble agreement (at least 80% of model members) that a stronger and more impactful storm system will impact the area around next weekend.
This event would be widespread across the area but slightly focused down south. Uncertainty remains very high at this lead time, but low elevation rain amounts currently show as 1.5 to 2.5 inches with some high elevation amounts closer to 4 inches. There is a greater chance (though still only around 35%) of gusts over 45 mph with this system. Perhaps most impactful, a deep trough will bring much colder air on the back of the system around next Sunday. Current models suggest precipitation will still be falling at this time, likely generating impactful snow fall (5+ inches) for highway passes in Trinity COunty perhaps as low as 2000 feet. Stay tuned for more updates on that system. A wetter pattern will most likely stay in place until late February based on long term forecast models.



AVIATION
Frontal conditions continue along the North Coast through the afternoon. Expected wind shear (with low level turbulence), decreased visibilities due to rain, and MVFR, and periodic IFR ceilings. This front is expected to move away from the North Coast around 00Z (+/- 1 hr) giving way to VFR conditions with light W-NW winds. KUKI is forecast to feel this front midday through the afternoon with rainshowers causing decreased visibilities. Clear skies forecasted to develop tonight through the morning for all terminals.



MARINE
The strongest winds have passed over the coastal waters.
Southerly wind waves will continue to subside through the afternoon while a westerly swell continues to fill in the waters. Northerly winds forecasted to develop Monday through Tuesday evening. Winds of 20-25kts expected with gusts up to 30kts downwind, south of Cape Mendocino. These strong breezes will also be producing steep, short wind waves, especially for the southern and outer waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the outer waters from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening to highlight to steep, sea state.
The Inner waters forecasted for slightly light winds with propagating waves. Due to limited expected coverage of these winds and waves, an advisory has not been issued for the inner waters as of right now until forecast confidence increases.



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ450-470.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 10 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ470.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 10 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ475.