Woodstock, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Woodstock, VA

April 15, 2024 11:48 AM EDT (15:48 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM
Moonrise 10:54 AM   Moonset 1:46 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 1037 Am Edt Mon Apr 15 2024

Rest of today - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers and tstms late this morning, then showers and tstms likely this afternoon.

Tonight - N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.

Tue - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.

Tue night - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.

Wed - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.

Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.

Thu - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.

Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 1037 Am Edt Mon Apr 15 2024

Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
an area of low pressure and its associated cold front will drop through the area today before settling off to the south Tuesday morning. This system eventually returns northward as a warm front on Wednesday before a weak cold front crosses the waters on Thursday morning. A stronger cold front approaches the region by late in the work week. Small craft advisories may be needed during the middle of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Woodstock, VA
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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 151310 AAA AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 910 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will drop southward through the area tonight, before returning northward as a warm front on Wednesday. A strong cold front will move through this weekend, with high pressure building in early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Model trends past 24 hrs have shown storms this afternoon developing further north than anticipated yesterday roughly now from along and south of the US-50 corridor or south of I-70 along a lee-side trof. New 13Z SPC DY1 Otlk has shifted the Slight risk further north into areas south of the Capital Beltway. Hail is expected to be the primary threat given 7.3 C/km mid-level lapse rates and decent CAPE above -20C seen on the 12Z IAD sounding. Storms would also be relatively fast movers with 0-6 km mean winds of 28kt posing a marginal damaging wind threat.

Previous afd...

A diffuse cold front will continue to slowly drift southward across the forecast area today. Daytime heating will allow instability to build, with around 1000 J/kg of CAPE present by peak heating this afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop within the zone of low-level convergence near the surface front later this afternoon. There's some uncertainty as to where exactly this will occur. Any location in the forecast area has at least a slight chance for a thunderstorm, but the greatest chance should generally be south of I-66/US-50 and east of US-15. Further west, westerly flow and downsloping will act to further dry out an already dry boundary layer, which should limit storm coverage as a result.
Further north, they'll likely end up to the north of the best- low-level convergence, which should also limit the coverage of storms. Where storms do form, they'll likely be strong to severe. Model soundings show an environment that is more typical of the High Plains than the Mid-Atlantic. Boundary layer moisture will be rather limited, with dewpoints only in the 50s, but lapse rates will be very steep (dry adiabatic in the lowest three kilometers, with mid- level lapse rates around 7.5-8 C/km). Flow will be relatively weak in the boundary layer, but pick up rapidly in the mid- levels, with continued shear through the upper levels. Hodographs are relatively straight, so storm splits may be possible, with both multicells and right/left moving supercells. Model soundings check a lot of boxes in recent research for hail producing storms. That may be the primary threat this afternoon, although the steep lapse rates and DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg should make damaging winds a threat as well. Tornadoes aren't expected with a dry boundary layer and little to no low- level shear in place. The I-95 corridor south of DC to southern Maryland should stand the greatest chance of seeing a severe stoms. These storms will progress off to the south and east this evening, leading to dry conditions overnight.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A narrow ridge of high pressure will build overhead tomorrow morning. Heights will start to rise aloft well in advance of a potent upper level low tracking over the center of the country.
A weak band of warm advection aloft well in advance of the system over the center of the country will cause clouds to gradually increase through the day. Showers, and potentially a thunderstorm or two will also be possible to the west of the Blue Ridge during the afternoon hours. This band of warm advection in advance of a developing warm front will spread further northeast tomorrow night, giving all locations a chance for some showers overnight. Chances for showers will continue through the day Wednesday as the warm front continues to slowly lift north and eastward across the area. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the 60s in northeast Maryland to near 80 in central Virginia.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
On Thursday morning, a shortwave tracking across the Lower Great Lakes will be in the process of shearing out as it gains latitude into Quebec. The accompanying surface cold front should be rather weakly defined as it tracks across the region on Thursday. Most notably, winds are forecast to shift over to north-northwesterly with an actual rise in temperatures into Thursday. There will be an associated risk of showers and thunderstorms given appreciable moisture lingering in the atmosphere. It is difficult to say just how widespread the activity would be as heights rise through the day. Wind fields continue backing in time with mainly north to northeasterlies into Thursday evening and night. Mild conditions are likely at night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. This comes with some lingering showers during early portions of the night.

Although the subsequent system has trended much slower, expect a robust upper trough to impact the local area late Friday into Saturday. As this system scoots across southern Ontario and the adjacent Great Lakes, a more pronounced cold front swings through the Mid-Atlantic states early Saturday. The lengthy stretch of warm weather will come to end on Sunday and into early next week.
Readings in the 70s to low 80s will be replaced with mainly mid 50s to low 60s. During this entire transition period, there will be daily chances for showers, particularly along and ahead of the mentioned cold front. Over the weekend, additional lower amplitude impulses may bring further shots for shower and thunderstorm activity. Based on extended range ensemble guidance, the trends do support a gradual warm up just beyond this period.

AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR/brief MVFR/IFR conditions and westerly winds are expected through the day today. Sct-nmrs thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon. As it stands now, DCA, CHO, and IAD would stand the greatest chance of having impacts from thunderstorms. Keeping thunderstorms out of BWI and MRB as storms are expected to develop south of I-70 or the probability too low at those two termainals to include in TAF.

VFR conditions and light southerly winds are expected tomorrow.
Sub-VFR conditions appear possible on Wednesday in association with low clouds and rain, with a few thunderstorms also possible.

A weak cold front pushing across the area will lead to a shift to northwesterlies through Thursday afternoon. Further shifts to north- northeasterlies are anticipated Thursday evening and into the night.
Another cold front approaches the area late in the work week yielding a southeasterly wind on Friday. While not a complete washout, chances for showers loom on Thursday and Friday which would support some periods of sub-VFR conditions. The better chance for any thunderstorms would be on Thursday afternoon/evening.

MARINE
Sub-SCA level winds are expected through Wednesday. Winds will be out of the west today, north tonight, south tomorrow, and southeast tomorrow night into Wednesday. Special Marine Warnings may potentially be needed over the waters this afternoon for any thunderstorms moving toward the waters. Both high winds and large hail may be a threat in any thunderstorms.

In the wake of a diffuse cold front, winds over the waterways shift to northwesterly before turning more north-northeasterly by late Thursday. An uptick in wind fields could bring some spots to near advisory levels Thursday evening into the night. Additionally, there will be a threat of some thunderstorms which could necessitate Special Marine Warnings for the stronger activity. For Friday, winds shift to south-southeasterly ahead of a more potent cold front.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KFRR FRONT ROYALWARREN COUNTY,VA 21 sm13 minWSW 0810 smClear79°F52°F39%29.87
KLUA LURAY CAVERNS,VA 21 sm13 minSSW 0610 sm--82°F52°F35%29.88
Link to 5 minute data for KW45


Wind History from W45
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Tide / Current for Aquia Creek, Virginia
   
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Aquia Creek
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Mon -- 02:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:06 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:10 PM EDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:14 PM EDT     First Quarter
Mon -- 06:55 PM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Aquia Creek, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.9
1
am
0.8
2
am
0.6
3
am
0.5
4
am
0.4
5
am
0.2
6
am
0.1
7
am
0.2
8
am
0.4
9
am
0.7
10
am
0.9
11
am
1.1
12
pm
1.2
1
pm
1.1
2
pm
1
3
pm
0.8
4
pm
0.6
5
pm
0.4
6
pm
0.1
7
pm
0
8
pm
0.1
9
pm
0.3
10
pm
0.5
11
pm
0.7



Tide / Current for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
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Mon -- 01:16 AM EDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:48 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:28 PM EDT     3.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:14 PM EDT     First Quarter
Mon -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:47 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
2.6
1
am
2.9
2
am
2.8
3
am
2.4
4
am
1.8
5
am
1.3
6
am
0.9
7
am
0.6
8
am
0.5
9
am
0.8
10
am
1.5
11
am
2.2
12
pm
2.8
1
pm
3.1
2
pm
3
3
pm
2.7
4
pm
2.3
5
pm
1.8
6
pm
1.3
7
pm
0.9
8
pm
0.6
9
pm
0.5
10
pm
0.8
11
pm
1.5




Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of east us   
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Sterling, VA,



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