Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Annapolis, MD

KEY MESSAGES
1) Turning sharply cooler today through Saturday with multiple opportunities for much needed rainfall.

2) Rain chances persist into early next week, but with gradually warming temperatures.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... Turning sharply cooler today through Saturday with multiple opportunities for much needed rainfall.

High temperatures will take a 25 to 30 degree nose dive today with highs struggling to get into the mid to upper 60s compared to the mid 90s of yesterday afternoon. More widespread light to moderate shower activity will work back over the region later this morning and into the afternoon as additional waves of low pressure move along a transient cold front that will sink south of the region. Overrunning along this boundary will keep on and off rain chances in place through the weekend, especially during the afternoon and evening periods.

This is largely due in part to the synoptic pattern with weak troughing over the Ohio River Valley and wedging high pressure over New England. Increased onshore/maritime flow will keep things gray and gloomy with limited sunshine and high temps today through Saturday in the upper 50s and mid 60s. The greatest rain chances look to be during the afternoon and evening periods with a quarter to half an inch (perhaps three quarters of an inch of rain) expected each day. This will yield rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches through Monday with localized amounts of 4"+ across the Alleghenies/eastern WV Panhandle and up into central/northeast MD. With that said, this should ease some of the severe and extreme drought across the region. conditions across the region.

With persistent rain chances and cloud cover expect below normal temperatures throughout the holiday weekend stretch. We'll trade the shorts and tees for rain jackets/long sleeves with highs in many locations Friday struggling to push 60 degrees. Similar values are expected Sunday although the outer fringes of the wedge (i.e southern Shenandoah Valley and southern MD) could push into the upper 60s and low 70s with slightly thinner cloud cover.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances persist into early next week, but with gradually warming temperatures.

A transient/wedge will gradually relent early next week. A warm front meandering south of the area will push to the north on Monday, continuing rain and thunderstorm chances into the start of next week. Temperatures still vary a bit in the ensemble outlooks, but temperatures should start to gradually climb again, with early outlooks showing highs in the low 80s again by Tuesday. High pressure moves into the area by midweek, reducing rain chances by Wednesday into Thursday (into the 20-30 pct range mainly to the southwest of the Potomac River).

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
With the front nearby expect a patchwork of VFR, MVFR, and IFR conditions amongst the terminals. Expect MVFR to IFR conditions later this morning and into the evening hours as widespread overrunning light to moderate showers overtake the terminals.
These conditions will continue on and off through the upcoming holiday weekend as the front stalls nearby. Greatest coverage of rain at all terminals looks to be during the afternoon and evening hours, especially with a focus north of KCHO given the placement of the front and waves of low pressure moving along it. Wind gusts could reach 15 to 20 kts later this morning into the afternoon under north/northeast flow. Winds will decrease tonight with east to northeast flow Friday and Saturday at 5-15 kts.

As for thunderstorms, expect the probabilities to remain low through Saturday given the lack of instability from added cloud cover and stability north of the boundary. Thunderstorm chances do return Sunday afternoon and evening as a warm front lifts back into the region. Winds will shift from the east and northeast back to the south and southeast at 5 to 15 kts. Periodic sub-VFR potential persists into early next week (Monday-Tuesday) with daily chances of showers. Winds generally remain between 5-10 knots during this time, with northeast winds shifting southerly by Monday evening through Tuesday.

MARINE
Increasing onshore flow today as a slow moving cold front sags south of the waters. SCAs are in effect for all the waters through late afternoon for northerly channeling. Expect gusts up to 20 kts before a gradual tapering of the winds tonight.

East to northeast SCA level winds are expected over much of the bay and surrounding inlets Friday and Saturday given increased onshore flow. No marine hazards are expected Sunday with winds slowly switching back to the south and southeast. Winds continue below SCA levels through Monday, with northeast winds shifting southerly by Monday evening. Winds may increase in southerly flow Tuesday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ534-537-543.