Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Tapawingo, MO

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Tapawingo, MO

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Area Discussion for - Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 081726 AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Discussion
Issued at 300 AM CDT THU JUN 8 2023

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm this morning.

- Widespread much needed rainfall likely Saturday and especially Saturday night/ Sunday morning.

Showers and possibly a few storms are expected this morning across western Missouri and eastern Kansas. A nearly stationary front is draped from eastern Nebraska southeastward through the western half of our forecast area. This boundary shows up well at 925mb and 850mb and at the surface by an area of higher dewpoints and weak surface convergence. Stronger convergence is noted aloft and as a subtle embedded shortwave moves southward between the ridge through the Plains and the trough in the Northeast should lead to an expansion of showers and storms. This subtle lift is enough to get some scattered showers going as of 07Z. This area of precipitation should continue through the remainder of the overnight hours and into the morning hours as the wave slowly moves southward. Instability looks weak but not zero as this activity moves into the area. Shear is also weak. So not expecting any strong or severe storms. But there is enough instability that few storms can't be ruled out.

Precipitation shifts west of the area this afternoon/evening and then the area should stay dry through Friday as drier high pressure settles into the Mid Mississippi valley. Saturday, that high shifts to the east and allows for southerly flow to increase.
That southerly flow will advect richer moisture into the area.
There may be some showers and storms in this warm/moist advection regime Saturday morning. There may even be scattered storms develop in the afternoon heat as it looks like there will be almost not capping inversion to inhibit convection. But the more widespread and heavier precipitation will come in Saturday night into Sunday morning as a shortwave trough moves into the area from the west. This will increase the low-level jet, further enhancing moisture advection into the area. NBM continues to increase qpf probabilities across the board. And probabilistic guidance suggest the area will likely see at least an inch but likely not more 2" for the 24 hours ending at 12Z Sunday. That said, there is still a 20-30 percent chance of exceeding 2" over eastern Kansas and western Missouri so there may be some areas pickup higher rain amounts. Regardless, widespread much needed rainfall on the order of 1-2" looks likely with the setup this weekend.

Drier conditions move into the area behind that shortwave trough.
And overall, it looks like a pattern change will unfold across the CONUS as the upper ridge is significantly weaker with stronger westerly upper-level flow moving over the area. That may bring additional precipitation chances for the middle to later part of next week.

Aviation
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT THU JUN 8 2023

For the 18z TAFs, cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm to track near the terminals, but confidence in the coverage of this scattered precipitation is too low to warrant a mention in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with light SE winds.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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