Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Tapawingo, MO
March 28, 2024 10:28 AM CDT (15:28 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:05 AM Sunset 7:38 PM Moonrise 10:18 PM Moonset 7:32 AM |
Area Discussion for - Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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FXUS63 KEAX 281126 AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 626 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warmer conditions prevail through the end of the week.
- Precipitation chances (20-30%) return Friday night with more widespread (40-70%) showers and storms Sunday into Monday. Severe storms look possible Monday afternoon.
- More seasonal temperatures for the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Surface high pressure is shifting to the south and southeast of the area early this morning. As that surface high continues to move way from the area, low-level winds will increase from the south to southwest. This will occur in conjunction with broad upper-level ridging spreading east into the middle of the country. This pattern shift will allow a significant warmup to occur through the end of the week. Highs today will warm into the middle and upper 60s, in response to the warm advection. For Friday, temperatures warm another 5-10 degrees with highs climbing into the middle 70s. This is about 10-15 degrees above normal for this time year.
A shortwave trough will move across the region Friday afternoon and evening. The associated cold front will push south through the forecast area Friday evening and overnight. Forcing associated with this shortwave and cold front may lead to isolated to scattered (20- 30%) showers and few storms in mainly our eastern zones. Moisture will be limited with this first round of precipitation so it's more likely to be dry with this frontal passage. With northerly low-level flow and modest cold advection Saturday, high temperatures fall back into the 60s. That front stalls to the south of the area and then lifts northward to the vicinity of the Missouri river, splitting the forecast area from north to south. As has been the case the last two nights, this placement of the front leads to considerable uncertainty with the temperature forecast. There seems to be a slight trend northward with the front and like the previous couple of nights, this shows up in the NBM box and whisker plots for high temperatures. The greatest spread in the 25th to 75th percentiles, still nearly 20-25 degrees, has shifted northward, closer to St. Joe. For the Kansas City area, this spread is still about 15 degrees with the current forecast showing nearly a 10 degree temperature spread from the north side of the KC metro to the south side. Overall, high temperatures across the forecast area could vary by 20 to 30 degrees across that frontal boundary.
The other aspect of this stalled front will be the potential for showers and storms. South of the front a relatively warm and unseasonably humid air mass will develop as southerly flow pumps moisture into the area. This leads to modest instability with MUCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep- layer shear near 40kts all point to the potential for strong to severe storms Monday afternoon. This is still in the day 5 time frame so plenty of things can change. But there has been a consistent signal for strong/severe weather in the area for several days now.
A stronger shortwave will move through the region Monday night and that will help push the front south, allowing for more seasonal temperatures to move into the area for the middle portions of next week.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR conditions persist through the forecast period. Light southerly winds become gusty during the afternoon. Gusts dissipate after sunset.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 626 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warmer conditions prevail through the end of the week.
- Precipitation chances (20-30%) return Friday night with more widespread (40-70%) showers and storms Sunday into Monday. Severe storms look possible Monday afternoon.
- More seasonal temperatures for the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Surface high pressure is shifting to the south and southeast of the area early this morning. As that surface high continues to move way from the area, low-level winds will increase from the south to southwest. This will occur in conjunction with broad upper-level ridging spreading east into the middle of the country. This pattern shift will allow a significant warmup to occur through the end of the week. Highs today will warm into the middle and upper 60s, in response to the warm advection. For Friday, temperatures warm another 5-10 degrees with highs climbing into the middle 70s. This is about 10-15 degrees above normal for this time year.
A shortwave trough will move across the region Friday afternoon and evening. The associated cold front will push south through the forecast area Friday evening and overnight. Forcing associated with this shortwave and cold front may lead to isolated to scattered (20- 30%) showers and few storms in mainly our eastern zones. Moisture will be limited with this first round of precipitation so it's more likely to be dry with this frontal passage. With northerly low-level flow and modest cold advection Saturday, high temperatures fall back into the 60s. That front stalls to the south of the area and then lifts northward to the vicinity of the Missouri river, splitting the forecast area from north to south. As has been the case the last two nights, this placement of the front leads to considerable uncertainty with the temperature forecast. There seems to be a slight trend northward with the front and like the previous couple of nights, this shows up in the NBM box and whisker plots for high temperatures. The greatest spread in the 25th to 75th percentiles, still nearly 20-25 degrees, has shifted northward, closer to St. Joe. For the Kansas City area, this spread is still about 15 degrees with the current forecast showing nearly a 10 degree temperature spread from the north side of the KC metro to the south side. Overall, high temperatures across the forecast area could vary by 20 to 30 degrees across that frontal boundary.
The other aspect of this stalled front will be the potential for showers and storms. South of the front a relatively warm and unseasonably humid air mass will develop as southerly flow pumps moisture into the area. This leads to modest instability with MUCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep- layer shear near 40kts all point to the potential for strong to severe storms Monday afternoon. This is still in the day 5 time frame so plenty of things can change. But there has been a consistent signal for strong/severe weather in the area for several days now.
A stronger shortwave will move through the region Monday night and that will help push the front south, allowing for more seasonal temperatures to move into the area for the middle portions of next week.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR conditions persist through the forecast period. Light southerly winds become gusty during the afternoon. Gusts dissipate after sunset.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KLXT LEE'S SUMMIT MUNI,MO | 3 sm | 35 min | WSW 11G20 | 10 sm | Clear | 52°F | 30°F | 43% | 30.15 | |
KMKC CHARLES B WHEELER DOWNTOWN,MO | 17 sm | 34 min | no data | 10 sm | Clear | 30.14 | ||||
KGPH MIDWEST NATIONAL AIR CENTER,MO | 24 sm | 13 min | WSW 12G17 | 10 sm | Clear | 52°F | 30°F | 43% | 30.14 | |
KOJC JOHNSON COUNTY EXECUTIVE,KS | 24 sm | 35 min | SW 10 | 10 sm | Clear | 48°F | 30°F | 50% | 30.16 |
Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,
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