Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Tapawingo, MO

DISCUSSION
Issued at 500 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Temperatures across the area this morning ranging in the lower 50s to 40s, with some of the warmer locations around the greater KC area. Expect to see some additional cooling of the temperatures within the next couple of hours before sunrise.
However these temperatures will rebound but not as high as the previous maximum temperatures with cloud cover moving in from the northwest as seen in the latest satellite imagery. Expect this afternoon high temperatures to range in mid 60s to lower 70s further south into west-central MO and far eastern KS. There is a chance for showers through noon this morning for far northwestern MO as can see the light returns from the radar reflectivity. Some of this maybe more cloud cover as can see reports at surface of rain further west in areas of Kearney NE.
However will see a few weak disturbances move through the larger ridging pattern and increased wet pattern through next week.

Expecting the increase spread of precipitation chances (20-40%)
across eastern KS and western MO. There is a marginal potential for stronger to severe thunderstorm primarily from Olathe to Harrisonville and southward that this afternoon into early evening. However the limiting factor is that there is not much instability. However there is a potential for storm growth with the LLJ and there is a potential for an MCS to develop in south central KS and move our way. Again there is lower confidence but if storms do develop across the area then hail and wind will be the main threats for severe potential.

The larger concern over the next several days with this wet pattern with disturbances will be the heavy rainfall amounts with total from today through Tuesday ranging from 2-4 inches with highest amounts further south along west central MO into the Ozarks. Earlier this week this area received decent rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches and we saw river rises in response. Thus with the moist antecedent conditions it will not take much for the rivers and streams to respond. Certainly with the upcoming Memorial Holiday weekend with outdoor activities along lakes, rivers and streams urge public to stay weather aware. We have a flood watch out for the Linn, KS and Bates and Henry counties in MO. Although latest guidance has continued a trend of pushing the heaviest rainfall amounts further south with each model runs, probabilistic guidance still shows decent probabilities of 24hour exceeding 2 inches in the same counties of 10-20% from the LREF. Our current QPF showed about 0.25 reduced amounts from the previous forecast, but again we still are forecasting 2.0 to 4.0 inches across the counties with the flood watch area.
In addition there is the excessive rainfall forecast in which we have some areas in the marginal risk meaning risk of rainfall exceeding the FFG during the period tonight through Saturday morning and again slightly shifted northward for Saturday night into Sunday. The heaviest rainfall period looking to be Saturday night into Sunday (00z-06z) along Linn, Bates and Henry counties.

Looking toward the mid week, the mid to upper level ridging builds into the area providing a bit of relief from the wet weather pattern. This will allow for warming temperatures as well with highs in the 70s by Thursday and Friday. However, rain chances start to creep back into forecast with another trough moving through area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

VFR conditions to start the TAF period with light and variable winds. Intermittent showers and storms are expected through the end of the forecast time period which could diminish conditions below VFR. Light showers are anticipated within the next few hours at KSTJ, KMCI, and KMKC. The next round of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated this evening into early Saturday morning hours. These showers are anticipated to be more widespread across all terminals. Another round expected later tomorrow morning towards the end of the TAF period again for all terminals.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday evening for MOZ053-054.
KS...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday evening for KSZ060.