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FXUS63 KEAX 301155 AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 555 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Discussion
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 30 2023

Key Messages

- Rain moves into the area today with isolated showers possible starting this afternoon. More widespread rain expected after sunset.

- Wintry precipitation is still anticipated across far NW and northern MO. Some uncertainties remain, but light freezing rain and wet snow are possible and may impact travel in that region.

- Long term pattern continues to remain active with multiple rounds of precipitation possible.

Detailed Discussion

Never underestimate the power of warm air advection. The axis of warmer flow set up a little further west than anticipated resulting in high soaring across the region into the 50s and 60s. However, it does not fully clear out uncertainties on expected precipitation overnight Thursday into Friday. Confidence has increased in majority rain for the region Thursday into Friday. Rain is expected to slowly work its way into KS and MO through the day enveloping the area after sunset. The uncertainty lies across far NW and northern MO where the possibilities for freezing rain and snow remain.

A few key elements need to be examined, the first is the intrusion of dry air from the north which will limit the NW extent precipitation will reach. should this drier air push far enough SE, far NW MO may see little precipitation. Given the more westward shift in the axis of warm air advection mentioned earlier, probabilities favor a more moist environment increasing confidence in precipitation spreading that far NW. What keeps uncertainty around is the expected 850mb front that works its way down from the NW. It is forecasted to settle across far NW MO ahead of the rain's arrival before the winds start getting influenced by the 850mb cyclone. Depending on where this front reaches ahead of the cyclone's arrival will greatly determine precipitation type. Another element is the tenured establishment of cold air across the area.
With portions of NW MO reaching the mid-50s and strong warm air advection from yesterday, that is not looking likely. However, that does not mean that there is no chance for frozen precipitation. This actually points toward a slightly increased chances of light freezing rain and wet snow. Eyes will be on observations going through the day as they will show the trends of the antecedent environment as the precipitation arrives. Should it become apparent that light ice accumulations are likely, a winter weather advisory may be needed. Ice accumulations look to remain under 0.10 inches and snow less than 1 inch. Precipitation chances Friday prolong as a secondary trough slights through the region during the afternoon hours. This looks to bring an additional chances of rain and snow Friday evening. This wave will depend on the residual moisture left behind the initial wave.

The extended pattern continues to remain active. Another short wave moves through the area this weekend bringing some more chances for rain and snow. On the synoptic scale, 500mb jet stream analysis keeps our area in the boundary between cooler Canadian air and warmer Gulf air. As normal, this boundary will oscillate through the central CONUS leading to warmer days when the Gulf air pushes in and cooler when the Canadian air punches southward. Most of the precipitation chances beyond this weekend come in the form of subtle shortwaves which are difficult to time as they appear and disappear with each forecast update. As the upper level pattern evolves going into next week, there will be more clarity as to which of these shortwaves will move through the area and bring further opportunities for precipitation.

Aviation
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST THU NOV 30 2023

VFR conditions persist early morning before MVFR CIGs move into the region after sunrise ahead of an approaching system. This system is expected to bring rain mainly after sunset. There is a slight chance increasing to chance of rain in the later afternoon (15% to 30%) from KMCI to KIXD. However probabilities are low that SHRA was left out of the TAFs. Expect the increasing chances of rain (80% to 100%) to extend from south to north from 7pm to 10pm with visibilities dropping at all the TAF locations due to rain and fog.

Winds start SW becoming NW then NE as the system approaches. Wind gusts will increase after midnight tonight with gusts of 20 to 25 knots from north to south TAF locations.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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