Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Merriam, KS
March 29, 2024 6:41 AM CDT (11:41 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:05 AM Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 11:25 PM Moonset 8:03 AM |
Area Discussion for - Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
  (hide/show)  HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KEAX 291118 AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 618 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm and windy conditions expected today.
- Isolated - scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening.
Limited instability will likely keep these storms sub-severe. More organized chance of thunderstorms Sunday into Monday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
1004 mb low across northwestern Kansas into western Nebraska is expected to move east today. Strong pressure gradient ahead of this system is expected to lead to gusty winds developing as stronger momentum aloft mixes to the surface. There is the potential for wind gusts to approach wind advisory criteria, with the greatest likelihood across southeastern KS/into southwestern Missouri. This area remains highlighted with a wind advisory throughout the daylight hours today. The strong southerly winds will lead to increasing temperatures and low level moisture. 850 hpa temperatures have warmed overnight to nearly 10 C, which will lead to widespread temperatures in the 70s F today. While mild, these forecast highs are about ten degrees below record levels. With the strong southerly flow and an open Gulf, expect to see dew points rise to near 50 degrees this afternoon. Elevated capping inversion near 800 mb should limit convective potential throughout the daylight hours, but as the low level jet increases tonight, there is a chance for a few thunderstorms to develop through the evening hours within the warm sector ahead of a cold front sweeping through the region. Best chances of a thunderstorm looks to be along and south/east of a line from KC- Chillicothe-Kirksville. Models are fairly quick to cool off the capping inversion, though I am struggling to see how this will occur with lack of a well defined short wave moving through the region. Given the lack of mid level support, have kept pops in the 20-30 percent range through the evening hours. If a storm is able to form, limited instability (generally 500 J/kg of CAPE or less) will limit severe potential.
Cold front associated with the low shifting east of the region will quickly shut down the potential for any thunderstorms across the region after midnight. Cold air advection behind the front will lead to cooler conditions on Saturday, but above normal temperatures continue.
Strong trough just off the Pacific NW coast this morning is expected to deepen across the western US through the first half of the weekend, and shift east leading to lee cyclogenesis across the central plains Saturday night. Well defined warm front is expected to lift north on Sunday, leading to temperatures near 80 F south of the front. As long as the warm front is able to make int far enough north, potential exists for unstable airmass working into the region south of the boundary. Atmosphere looks to be largely capped through much of the day, but the potential exists for a late-day storm (outlined by the marginal risk on Day 3). There is a better chance for more organized storms (and potential severe weather)as the low approaches from the west during the day on Monday. Mid and upper level dynamics may work together to lead to this system deepening across the central and eastern US, keeping the cooler more stable northerly flow behind this system next Tuesday into Wednesday.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
VFR conditions are expected to remain for the duration of the TAF period. Gusty winds from the southwest are anticipated to range from 30-40 MPH today and diminish after sunset. Non- severe thunderstorms are possible (20%-30%) this evening.
Thunderstorms were left out of the TAF due to low confidence at this time.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ053.
KS...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ060.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 618 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm and windy conditions expected today.
- Isolated - scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening.
Limited instability will likely keep these storms sub-severe. More organized chance of thunderstorms Sunday into Monday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
1004 mb low across northwestern Kansas into western Nebraska is expected to move east today. Strong pressure gradient ahead of this system is expected to lead to gusty winds developing as stronger momentum aloft mixes to the surface. There is the potential for wind gusts to approach wind advisory criteria, with the greatest likelihood across southeastern KS/into southwestern Missouri. This area remains highlighted with a wind advisory throughout the daylight hours today. The strong southerly winds will lead to increasing temperatures and low level moisture. 850 hpa temperatures have warmed overnight to nearly 10 C, which will lead to widespread temperatures in the 70s F today. While mild, these forecast highs are about ten degrees below record levels. With the strong southerly flow and an open Gulf, expect to see dew points rise to near 50 degrees this afternoon. Elevated capping inversion near 800 mb should limit convective potential throughout the daylight hours, but as the low level jet increases tonight, there is a chance for a few thunderstorms to develop through the evening hours within the warm sector ahead of a cold front sweeping through the region. Best chances of a thunderstorm looks to be along and south/east of a line from KC- Chillicothe-Kirksville. Models are fairly quick to cool off the capping inversion, though I am struggling to see how this will occur with lack of a well defined short wave moving through the region. Given the lack of mid level support, have kept pops in the 20-30 percent range through the evening hours. If a storm is able to form, limited instability (generally 500 J/kg of CAPE or less) will limit severe potential.
Cold front associated with the low shifting east of the region will quickly shut down the potential for any thunderstorms across the region after midnight. Cold air advection behind the front will lead to cooler conditions on Saturday, but above normal temperatures continue.
Strong trough just off the Pacific NW coast this morning is expected to deepen across the western US through the first half of the weekend, and shift east leading to lee cyclogenesis across the central plains Saturday night. Well defined warm front is expected to lift north on Sunday, leading to temperatures near 80 F south of the front. As long as the warm front is able to make int far enough north, potential exists for unstable airmass working into the region south of the boundary. Atmosphere looks to be largely capped through much of the day, but the potential exists for a late-day storm (outlined by the marginal risk on Day 3). There is a better chance for more organized storms (and potential severe weather)as the low approaches from the west during the day on Monday. Mid and upper level dynamics may work together to lead to this system deepening across the central and eastern US, keeping the cooler more stable northerly flow behind this system next Tuesday into Wednesday.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
VFR conditions are expected to remain for the duration of the TAF period. Gusty winds from the southwest are anticipated to range from 30-40 MPH today and diminish after sunset. Non- severe thunderstorms are possible (20%-30%) this evening.
Thunderstorms were left out of the TAF due to low confidence at this time.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ053.
KS...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ060.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KOJC JOHNSON COUNTY EXECUTIVE,KS | 9 sm | 48 min | SSE 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 48°F | 37°F | 66% | 29.91 | |
KMKC CHARLES B WHEELER DOWNTOWN,MO | 11 sm | 47 min | S 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 55°F | 37°F | 51% | 29.91 | |
KIXD NEW CENTURY AIRCENTER,KS | 14 sm | 48 min | SE 14G20 | 10 sm | Clear | 54°F | 37°F | 54% | 29.90 | |
KLXT LEE'S SUMMIT MUNI,MO | 18 sm | 48 min | S 13 | 10 sm | Clear | 52°F | 36°F | 54% | 29.92 | |
KMCI KANSAS CITY INTL,MO | 22 sm | 48 min | S 12 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 52°F | 37°F | 58% | 29.89 |
Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE