Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Silver Spring, MD

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Silver Spring, MD

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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington

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FXUS61 KLWX 050128 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 928 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes and New England while low pressure meanders off Cape Cod through Monday night. A cold front will likely drop southward Tuesday. High pressure will gradually build in through the end of the week as another low spirals off the New England Coast.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Low clouds have finally retreated south of I-64/US-250, but it's possible they remain banked against the Appalachians for much of the night in this area. A boundary is pushing in from the north, marking a wind shift to the north and dew points in the lower- mid 30s versus mid 40s to mid 50s to the south. This boundary will slowly push south through the area overnight but may stall/wash out before reaching the southwestern quadrant of the CWA. In this area, where dew points will remain higher, some fog may develop overnight.

Low temperatures will likely drop well into the 40s for rural/sheltered valley locations as winds go light to calm and skies clear (promoting radiational cooling). Closer to the Chesapeake Bay as well as in the downtown DC/Baltimore areas, lows will likely hover in the mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A sharp shortwave trough is indicated across the 12Z guidance suite, progged to cross the region late Monday afternoon and evening. Much of the atmosphere will be quite dry, so some cumulus clouds and waves of mid/upper clouds are unlikely to bear any rain.

Another upper-level low will take shape over the Northeast U.S.
(diving out of the Polar regions of Canada), sending a shortwave and corresponding height falls and unusually cool mid-level temperatures into the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday afternoon and evening. Moisture will be a little better, but still meager; temperatures in the 80s and dew points a few degrees on either side of 50 will likely yield only modest CAPE values of ~200-700 J/kg. However, very steep low-level lapse rates and deep mixing layer heights with winds of 30-40 kts in the cloud- bearing layer may result in some gusty showers or a few thunderstorms as the wave crosses.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The extended forecast looks to be mostly dry, with limited opportunities for much needed rain. The large upper low meandering east of the Maine coast retrogrades westward late in the week as it merges with another upper trough moving south from northern Canada.
As the merged upper trough swings southwestward, it drags a backdoor cold front across the area early Wednesday. While upper forcing is plentiful, moisture looks very limited, so only have a 20pct chance for rain Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

Numerous shortwaves traverse the area Friday into next weekend. This looks to be the next best chance for more widespread precip, however model confidence is low and moisture still remains low through Saturday. The lack of rain is likely to worsen the ongoing drought, though thankfully the presence of broad troughing (and CAA) over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic will keep temperatures at or below normal for early to mid June. Highs are forecast in the upper 70s to low 80s, climbing up to the mid 80s on Saturday. Overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s west of the Blue Ridge, and mid to upper 50s east are expected.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A weak boundary will push south across the area this evening into tonight, with the main effect being a wind shift to the N/NE (though speeds likely remain less than 10 kt). Skies have cleared this evening, and the boundary may not reach CHO to lower dew points. Therefore some patchy fog may affect this area later tonight into Monday morning. Wind gusts up to 15 kts are possible Monday afternoon as winds become NW.

A few showers or a thunderstorm may accompany a front crossing the region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Daytime gusts of 15-25 kts are possible, maybe higher in/near showers/storms given very steep low-level lapse rates.

A brief period of sub-VFR conditions is possible Wednesday morning as a backdoor cold front moves south of the area. Otherwise, VFR conditions are likely into Thursday.

MARINE
Light and somewhat erratic flow generally less than 10 kts is forecast through early Monday morning as a ridge of high pressure gives way to a boundary crossing from north to south.
Ahead of this boundary, a brief period of southerly winds may result in a few gusts to 20 kt on the wider waters of the middle bay, although this has yet (as of 9 PM) to materialize. As the boundary pushes south, a few north/northeast gusts could approach 20 kt on northern portions of the bay late tonight into Monday morning. However, this also looks to be brief and uncertain.

NW wind gusts should stay largely sub-SCA Monday, though a few near shore gusts of 15-20 kts can't be ruled out late in the day near the upper tidal Potomac River and northern Chesapeake Bay.
Then, W/SW winds across the wider waters of the mid bay may gust 15-20 kts late Monday night into early Tuesday. NW gusts of 20-25 kts seem more likely as a front crosses Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, especially over the mid/upper tidal Potomac River and the northern Chesapeake Bay waters. The front may also touch off a couple gusty showers or thunderstorms which could result in locally higher gusts around gale force.

A backdoor cold front crosses the waters Wednesday morning, with SCA conditions possible Wednesday afternoon, and possibly Thursday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal anomalies this evening are pretty consistent around 1.6-1.8 ft across the waters. Minimal change is expected in anomalies until winds turn northerly late tonight. Therefore, widespread minor flooding is anticipated through Monday morning.
The northern reaches of the bay are most uncertain since the favored high tide isn't until later in the morning and a longer period of northerly winds will be realized by then...therefore held off on advisories for now. St. Marys and Annapolis will be near the threshold for moderate flooding, so warnings are in effect for these locations. DC SW Waterfront may also be near moderate, but confidence is lower. Anomalies should trend down over the next few days, but with large astronomical tides due to the lunar cycle, some locations may remain near the minor flood threshold for the higher high tides beyond Monday morning.

EQUIPMENT
KLWX doppler weather radar is down due to maintenance needs since the radar recently experienced a mechanical failure. The radar is expected to return to full operation Monday. Until then, surrounding NWS/DOD/FAA weather radars can be used.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Monday for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for MDZ011.
Coastal Flood Warning from 3 AM to 11 AM EDT Monday for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for MDZ016.
Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM EDT Monday for MDZ017.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for MDZ018.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for VAZ057.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EDT Monday for VAZ054.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Washington, DC

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Airport Reports

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Wind History from CGS (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Benning Bridge, D.C.

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