Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Prairie Village, KS

DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Conditions currently much quieter than just a few hours ago. Remnant activity from this evening continues to lift NE through far NE Missouri and into far SE Iowa and west-central Illinois, including additional Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Synoptic scale conditions favoring active weather remain entrenched across the region. Western CONUS trough has begun to move into Intermountain West, keeping deep SW flow over the central CONUS. This eastward movement of the larger trough and an expected leading piece of shortwave energy will yield another round of Lee Cyclogenesis and an elongated surface low building into and moving across northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. This more southerly placement vs yesterday/Monday will push the dry line closer to and even across portions of the CWA Hi- res/CAM guidance of late has consistently built/pushed this dry line into SW Iowa by the mid-afternoon and angled back to the SW across NW Missouri, NE Kansas and onward SW. More on this in just a second.
The open warm sector will initially be robustly capped once again, but ongoing WAA remains poised to yield highs a handful of degrees warmer today than yesterday, and coupled with diurnal mixing will yield a notably weaker/weak cap by mid-late afternoon
But
we still remain notably lackluster in the synoptic or mesoscale lift depictions. So, back to the dry line. Consistency is also seen in a lack of initiation along the dry line in IA/MO/most of KS with the forecast orientation largely parallel to surface/low level flow.
This is notably different in far S Kansas and N Oklahoma where robust convergence into the dry line is anticipated. This "should" be the initiation genesis region, and activity lifting NE toward the forecast area through the late afternoon and evening. As has been noted in previous discussions, this would likely yield a multi- cellular/cluster or linear storm mode for the area. Given what transpired yesterday evening, will certainly note that if we are able to initially convect closer to home or if discrete cells remain, the environment is in many ways similar. Robust CAPE (>2000- 2500 J/kg), supportive deep shear (>35-40 kts 0-6km), and very high near-surface "streamwiseness" noted in hodographs. Regardless, very large hail and damaging winds are the primary concern, with tornadic potential possible with any supercellular structure (though noted LCLs are a bit high). Timing for this would be late afternoon (if we convect closer to home) to evening/night (the more likely KS/OK initial storms moving NE into area). The dry line position will largely determine the N/NW extent of severe threat, which may be near the KC Metro. Sagging frontal boundary catching the dry line and/or LLJ increasing too looks to initiate some more elevated convection, but would generally be in a much less supportive environment by this time (evening/overnight) for strong/severe over NW parts of the CWA Main things to watch for through the day will be dry line evolution (how far east?) and orientation (areas of greater low level convergence close to home?). SPC New Day 1 Slight Risk remains in place for the area with noted Sig 1 hatching for Hail. Also note Sig 1 hatching for Tornado flirts with far SW forecasts area, noting the best area for discrete storms/supercells.

Additional rounds of less potent showers/storms are generally depicted within hi-res/CAM guidance through the overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. A good amount of uncertainty in how this transpires given reliance and upstream convection evolution. For the most part, the greatest ramifications are for how the environment might recover or struggle to recover Wednesday. However, the strong low level flow may limit the bottom end. If we see more sunshine/recovery than cloud cover, another round of very robust convection/storms may be possible. As of now, guidance preference is to initiate along the dry line/cool front hybrid that again may be in the vicinity of the KC Metro and in a NE to SW orientation. Much uncertainty here though, so we shall see how the environment evolves. SPD Day 2 Slight with no noted Sig 1 (or other) hatching into the area.

A brief reprieve Thursday as the open wave/trough kicks east, but not really cooler, which helps the area quickly rebound for yet another round of strong to severe weather potential Friday. Of note here, the thermodynamic and kinematic setup is quite impressive in various synoptic guidance. This as another western CONUS trough begins to move out of the Intermountain West and into the Plains. As it does so, takes on a mature/negative tilt orientation, helping yield some of the impressive kinematics. Devil is in the details in how the attendant surface low, general low level features, and timing evolves, so suffice it to say that Friday is absolutely a day/evening to pay attention to. This is also well reflected with the SPC Day 4 bump up to 30% (Enhanced equivalent) over portions of the area.

Trough and surface low pivots through Friday night, leaving in its wake notably cooler (more seasonable) and quieter conditions for at least the weekend and early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Residual scattered cloud deck at 2500-3000 ft should mix out in the next hour or so. VFR conditions are then expected until an area of showers and thunderstorms moves in from the southwest in the late afternoon/early evening. IFR visibility and strong gusty winds (40-50 kt) can be expected with any storms that impact airfields. Light rain showers likely persist behind any thunderstorms amid prevailing VFR conditions. VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow until showers and thunderstorms redevelop in the early to late afternoon, after the end of the current TAF period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.