Prairie Village, KS Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Prairie Village, KS

June 14, 2024 5:56 PM CDT (22:56 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 8:47 PM
Moonrise 12:45 PM   Moonset 12:39 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prairie Village, KS
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Area Discussion for - Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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FXUS63 KEAX 142045 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 345 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and Humid For The Next Few Days

- Isolated Showers/Storms Saturday

- Warm and Humid Next Week, Periods of Rain/Showers Likely

DISCUSSION
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Amplified ridge axis currently sits across the Central Plains with strong surface anticyclone centered over the SD-MN-IA border.
Thermal boundary reinforced by last night's convection has been pushed southward into the Ozarks Region. Although weakening, AVA will continue through the evening, with subsidence helping to keep skies mostly clear. The boundary layer still remains moist, thus with diurnal destabilization will see a few cumulus clouds through the evening. There is a short-wave trough near the Four Corners Region that is pushing the current H5 ridge axis eastward and clears our forecast area during the early morning hours of Saturday.
Saturday late morning, H5 height falls start with weak surface pressure falls following in response to that across the lower Missouri River Valley. This along with the thermal boundary in the southern Ozarks will compete with the surface anticyclone being forced into the Great Lakes Region and increase convergence into the early afternoon hours. Expecting isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop along this line of forcing. While a hot and humid airmass is in place, mid-level lapse rates are not overly robust, and this keeps MLCAPE values on lower side for this time of year.
Further, although a vort max is moving toward the region, overall mid and upper-level flow is rather weak across most of our forecast area limiting the available deep layer shear. Therefore, the severe threat will be limited by weaker thermodynamics on Saturday. Our far northwestern Missouri Counties are clipped by the SWODY2 Marginal Risk, as this gets into the better mid-level lapse rates that could foster more buoyant parcels. Main concern for thunderstorms in our far northwestern counties would be hail around quarter size and winds around 60 MPH. Elsewhere, a few stronger cores could produce around dime size hail and wind gusts between 40 and 50 MPH at times.
The airmass Saturday afternoon is characterized by PWATs between 1.5 and 1.75 inches. QPF from the HRRR mean produced between 0.25 and 0.50 inches of rainfall across areas mainly north of Interstate 70 for Saturday, and a localized pocket of 0.50 to 0.75 inches in far northwest Missouri where stronger core may be realized. Local probability matched mean QPF has a few pockets of 1.25 inches in our far northwestern counties. The GEFS probabilities for exceeding 0.10 are above 80 percent toward the IA-NE-MO point, with 50 to 60 percent probabilities extending toward the Interstate 70 corridor.
For a threshold of exceeding 0.50 inches, probabilities are around 40 to 50 percent for our far northwest counties, then steadily drop to less than 10 percent approaching the Interstate 70 corridor.
Overall, hydrological issues should be minimal, but if a stronger core produces heavier rainfall over a developed area, may result in some localized flooding and rises on local creeks/streams. Light activity may continue late Saturday Night as the main lobe of vorticity moves across the area though the better surface convergence is progged to move into Iowa along the effective thermal boundary.

Next week, the synoptic pattern will be characterized by an anomalously strong east coast ridge. All clusters of the WPC Cluster Analysis indicate a strong signal for this pattern over the east coast, with troughing over the Pacific Northwest that sets up southwesterly flow across the Central CONUS. NAEFS guidance indicates the potential for H5 heights to be pushing if not reach a climatological max. For our forecast area, this will have two impacts. The first, will be continued hot and humid conditions across the region. A look at box and whiskers statistics through the end of next week shows an inner-quartile spread between 90F and 97F for most points in our forecast area. With dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, this will push heat index values into the upper 90s and eventually triple digits. The second, is multiple rounds of showers and storms with warm humid airmass in place. Subtle short-wave troughs will move through the southwesterly flow that will likely provide enough convergence to produce rain shower and thunderstorm activity. Thermodynamically, certainly will be enough energy to support severe potential for a few of these days. However, current deterministic medium to long range guidance suggests the stronger mid and upper-level flow remains north of our area, which may limit the potential for storms throughout the week to organize across our area. The Colorado State Machine learning probabilities seem to be latching onto this, focusing greater probabilities for severe potential for the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Region than it does for the lower Missouri River Valley. And then some higher potential more over the High Plains where the dryline may come into play. We will see how the pattern evolves though. Changes in the strength of the east ridge could effect the placement mid-level southwesterly flow across the Central CONUS. GEFS probabilities for any measurable precipitation in a 24 hour period are above 60 percent for most of the area next week, and above 30 percent for a threshold 0.10 inches of QPF. Currently, Wednesday and Thursday of next week hold the highest probabilities for shower and storm activity with a few stronger short-wave perturbation and mid-level vort maxes ejecting out of the Rockies, then forced into the Great Lakes on the backside of the east coast ridge.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Cloud deck across the KC metro is breaking apart this afternoon and will lead to VFR conditions. A few passing clouds move through later this evening but conditions remains VFR. Winds remain generally light. Isolated rain showers are possible Saturday afternoon but most of the coverage may be after 18z, thus have left any mention out of the current TAFs.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.




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Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,




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