Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 11:26 PM   Moonset 7:24 AM

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FXUS63 KEAX 270743 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 243 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of severe storms possible this afternoon and evening.
All severe hazards are possible during the day with a trend to flooding/ flash flooding overnight.

- Strong to potentially severe storms linger into Sunday.

- Unsettled pattern continues Tuesday through the end of next week. Best potential for additional severe storms is Tuesday afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Today - Tonight: Satellite and radar imagery early this morning show what is likely an outflow boundary draped from northeastern MO southwestward over the KC area and then into eastern KS. It's possible this could be the cold front but there isn't much of a temperature/dew point difference across it. Regardless, models have not initiated this boundary well and are too far north with it. The boundary will stall close to where it is as of ~08Z.
The RAP 305K surface shows this reasonably well. There will be enough forcing along this boundary that showers and storms should increase in coverage across northern MO through the morning hours. During the morning hours, when potential instability is weakest, the threat of severe weather looks to be low. Going into the afternoon and evening hours, as a very warm and humid airmass builds south of the boundary, CAPE values will increase substantially. Models vary on this as well but HRRR probabilities show a greater than 90% chance for 2000+ J/kg of SBCAPE. There's even a 20% chance for SBCAPE to be greater than 3000 J/kg over eastern KS and western MO. Additionally, as upper-level flow increases, deep-layer shear will increase so we'll be staring down the barrel of a potentially 3000+ J/kg airmass with 40-50 kts of shear. If a storm can get going in the open warm sector, it will very likely become severe with all hazards possible. This still seems unlikely this far east and is much more likely further west, closer to the dryline. The region will also be in a favorable location of an anticyclonically curved upper jet with strong diffluence noted over the forecast area on streamline plots. In the lower-levels, a strong low-level jet will increase in the evening with intense moisture transport nosing right into eastern KS and western MO. This all points to an increase in coverage/ intensity of convection this evening with rounds of very heavy rainfall and flooding/ flash flooding likely into the overnight hours.

Sunday - Sunday Night: Saturday night's convection will bleed into Sunday as the low-level jet shifts eastward through the day and the diffluent upper flow persists. With convection ongoing at the start of this period, and then continuing through the day, we'll struggle to rebuild the instability. CAPE values look to be at least half of what we saw Saturday and likely even less, potentially less than 1000 J/kg. While deep-layer shear will remain impressive, the weaker instability will limit the potential for severe weather.

Monday - Monday Night: This period looks to be dry as the main trough that brought multiple rounds of severe weather to the region exits to the east and a drier airmass moves into the area.

Mid to Late Next Week: Low-level flow returns to a southerly trajectory Monday night into Tuesday. That will advect moisture back into the area just in time for the next front to interact with it Tuesday. The warmer and more humid airmass will lead to moderate instability with potentially 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE Tuesday afternoon. With 30-40 kts of deep-layer shear, can't rule out additional chances for strong to severe storms.
Unsettled weather will likely continue through the end of the week as the area remains in a humid airmass with multiple shortwave troughs moving through the flow. This will be resolved better (and this forecaster will have more time to look at it)
in the coming days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A cold front is nearly stationary between STJ and MCI with low-level moisture being pumped into the region south of the front. This is leading to MVFR ceilings from MCI southward. With the front nearly stalled, and likely to lift north in the morning hours, the low clouds will likely linger through a good chunk of the morning. Conditions become VFR this afternoon as deeper mixing allows for the lower cloud bases to lift. It also looks like more widespread showers and storms move in to the region after 00Z. Winds will be southerly through the forecast with gusts 20 near 25kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Flood Watch from noon CDT today through Sunday afternoon for MOZ020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Flood Watch from noon CDT today through Sunday afternoon for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

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Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,