Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Prairie Village, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Upper-level closed-low is centered over the Central Great Lakes while H5 ridge axis is developing across western portions of the CONUS. This leaves our region in continued mid-level northwesterly flow. Jet streak that provided weak upper-level divergence on Wednesday evening generating shower activity has pushed south of the area now, with some lingering cloud cover. This has also pushed the warm front southward away from the region, and secondary cool boundary is coming in from the north. This is being forced by surface anticyclone moving toward the lower Missouri River Valley as stronger AVA from the upstream ridge helps to promote subsidence.
For today, this should gradually clear skies across most of the forecast area. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the lower to mid 70s.

Friday, ridge axis will be centered over the Rockies, continuing the northwesterly flow for the middle and upper portions of the troposphere. However, expecting multiple disturbances to move through this pattern that will bring wet conditions for much of the weekend. The first is a PV anomaly over the Pacific Northwest that will send mid-level vort maxima across the Central CONUS. The second is another area of troughing in the far southern Plains. The far southern Plains activity is progged to generate enough dCVA to result in surface cyclogenesis across the OK/TX panhandle region, that will will cause a southerly flow response in the lower portions of the troposphere through much of the weekend. This will provide modest WAA, and should also provide moisture return. A warm front will work northward from the southern Plains toward the Missouri River Valley and Central Plains. Current uncertainty lies with how quickly this warm front surges, and how it lines up with any mid- level kinematic support for lift. Overall, most of the region should see at least general rain showers. The positioning of the warm front and better heating will control if there is any severe thunderstorm potential over the weekend into early next week. For Friday specifically, though the warm front may still be well south of the area, expecting isentropic ascent to extend further northeast into Central Missouri, along with a few passing mid-level waves in the ridge that will help generate rain showers. Better forcing and moisture convergence will be over Central Kansas, thus the heavier QPF for Friday will be west of the area. This also means that better theta-e transport and instability will be west of the area, along with better wind shear. Though far southwestern regions of our forecast area may tap into this, severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be limited along the Kansas-Missouri state line as the surface cyclone begins to move eastward. Deterministic GFS does indicate some MUCAPE that makes it to our western counties, but values struggle to exceed 2000 J/kg, and any instability that is there may get capped by inversion especially if main warm front is still well southwest of the area.

Saturday, surface cyclone over the panhandle region continues to deepen, and while southerly flow across the southern Plains increases, the steering flow for it forces it more eastward across Oklahoma and Texas then it does northward. Corridor of surface pressure falls along an inverted surface trough does sneak into the lower Missouri River Valley and Ozarks, but primary warm frontal boundary remains south of the area. Continued isentropic ascent with mid-level disturbances moving through the upstream ridge pattern should continue to provide lift needed for general rain showers, and perhaps enough instability could develop for isolated thunderstorm activity. GFS tries to bring a narrow ribbon of MUCAPE along the Kansas-Missouri Stateline, but still remains capped being north of the warm front. The cooler and more moist NAM keeps almost all instability out of the forecast area. Stronger H5 and H3 height gradient is progged, and if realized does setup decent deep layer shear into Central Missouri. If the warm front were to surge or we manage to develop better instability, stronger updrafts could form.
Therefore, Saturday severe threat will be conditional on instability. If the severe threat with respect to hail and wind does not materialize, will need to watch rainfall amounts as this round on Saturday starts to prime the area for flooding concerns starting Sunday through the start of the next work week.

Sunday, stronger H5 wave and associated vort max ejects across the Central Plains providing lift needed to keep the surface cyclone deepening. This may be enough to provide steering flow to bring this feature northeastward along with the associated warm front, at least into the Ozarks if not further northward up to Interstate 70. Better moisture transport should occur Sunday into at the least the southern half of the forecast area. This does a couple of things.
The first, provides better instability probabilities for our forecast area, at least with MUCAPE and continues to provide greater deep layer shear. Still uncertain if the boundary layer destabilizes enough to realize SBCAPE for surface-based parcels, but increased forcing could still result in elevated thunderstorms capable of producing hail. Higher PWATs and better integrated water vapor transport is leading to increasing QPF up to the Missouri River Valley. Sunday may end up providing the setup to start seeing two rounds of 24 hour rainfall totals between 1 and 2 inches for areas as far north as Interstate 70. With rainfall from the earlier part of this week, soil moisture content will be quite high in some places. In addition to stronger storms, we may start to see flooding issues in developed areas, along with rises in rivers, creeks, and streams that are already running at elevated levels. By Monday, closed-low over Great Lakes slightly retrogrades westward to reinforce northwesterly flow, but a few vort maxima likely move through the area that should provide additional lift for more rain shower activity. Current deterministic guidance pushes the warm front well south of the area, limiting instability on Monday.
Therefore, severe weather probabilities for hail and wind will be very limited. This leaves flooding as the primary issue. Current QPF has an axis of 4 to 5 inches of rainfall for areas south of Hwy. 50 between Friday and Tuesday. Most ensemble means, that spread rain over a larger area due to different warm front placement are still between 2 to 3 inches from the Missouri River and southward. EFI values and shift of tails signals suggests this setup, especially Sunday and Monday for extreme QPF values to reached, along with higher values for integrated water vapor transport. NAEFS probabilities also are showing a signal for anomalously high QPF.
The Ozarks Region is hit even harder. We will continue to monitor hydrologic trends over the next several days. Have decided to hold off on Flood Watch issuance for now, and may need to hold for a few more forecast cycles to try and get a better handle on where the warm front positions. There could be a northward shift of the heavier QPF axis if the forcing is able to move further north. More robust convection could increase rainfall production. On the other hand, if the instability profiles are more like what the NAM has progged for our area, we will still see quite a bit of rain, but it may be spaced out over a larger time period, which that could help mitigate the flooding risk if hourly rainfall rates are low.

For the end of the forecast period through middle of next week, low- end probabilities for rainfall are in the forecast area upper-level closed-low may provide some lift. However, large spread exists in ensemble solutions through middle of next week. If that closed-low moves east and we see ridging building into our area, may end up with a drier forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 556 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

High pressure moves into today and should keep skies mostly clear, perhaps a few high clouds out there. Winds may pick up above 10 kts for a few hours this afternoon. Active showers move in late Friday morning, most of the activity happens after 12z Friday so will not be placed in these 12z TAFs. MVFR ceilings may come in with showers on Friday. Active weather expected most of this weekend.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.