Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Villas, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1. Gusty winds expected today with Wind Advisories in effect.

2. Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... Gusty winds expected today with Wind Advisories in effect.

No changes were made to the Wind Advisory flags for today.
Deep low pressure across southern Canada will move down the St.
Lawrence Valley today. A tight pressure gradient around the low will bring increasing winds this morning which will diminish later today.
Wind Advisories are in effect for the N/W counties of our CWA where gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected. A few tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

Although winds will be gusty and relative humidity levels low, we are not expecting fire weather concerns today with the fine fuels being wetter than what is typically needed for fire growth.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday.

Mid level ridging over the weekend will give way as a deepening surface low pressure system develops on the lee side of the Rockies Sunday afternoon. The upper level associated trough rapidly turns negatively tilted and leads to a strong mid latitude cyclone developing over the Great Lakes. This system will continue to push north towards James Bay in Quebec and will usher in a potent cold front over the region.

A warm front will push north through the region Monday morning bringing the warm sector of the cyclone over the Mid Atlantic. This will usher in both warmer temperatures and higher dew points. The southerly flow associated with this system will transport a deep moisture plume into the region ahead of the frontal system. Medium range guidance is depicting significant height falls along with a strong upper level jet with the right rear located right over the Mid Atlantic. The combination of strong warm air advection and upper level dynamics will promote lift across the region on Monday.

Low level wind shear will be quite strong just ahead of the frontal passage and the combination of dynamic lift, sufficient moisture, and modest instability will support organized convection Monday.
Instability will be the limiting factor however I think the the dynamics should play a strong enough role in overcoming that instability. We're just getting into the window of the NAM12 but both the GFS and NAM show sufficient low level support to see STP values greater than 0.5-1 during a brief window Monday night. Will continue to monitor the potential for severe weather with the current threats being strong to damaging winds and we can not rule out the potential for weak tornados to develop.

In addition, the showers will likely be producing heavy rainfall as PWATs are progged to be 1.1-1.3" which is above the 90th percentile for early March. Longer range MMEFS guidance is showing modest rises in rivers so we'll continue to watch for any potential hydro concerns.

As the strong cold front shifts offshore during Monday night, strong cold air advection develops. Model guidance is highlight the potential for snow on the back side of the front however I anticipate that the most likely solution is that as the cold air arrives, it will also be ushering in quite dry air and so while there may be a few flurries, measurable snow is not generally expected.

There will also be a gusty wind ahead of the front out of the south which then shifts to west and northwest in the wake of the front.
Peak wind gusts at this time from the gradient wind looks to be in the 40-50 mph range, with wind advisories very possible.

A much colder air mass settles in for Tuesday with temperatures struggling to reach 40 degrees in some areas. A gusty westerly wind will also add a chill factor with wind chill values down into the 20s and 30s during Tuesday. Still chilly on Wednesday however less wind is forecast.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. West to NorthWest winds 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 35 kt gusts. Winds begin to diminish after 18Z.

Tonight... VFR. Diminishing winds this evening. High confid.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR should prevail with lighter winds than on Saturday.

Sunday night...Conditions likely drop below VFR, possibly below MVFR, with rain enveloping the region.

Monday and Monday night...Conditions may improve to VFR at times as rain departs, but more showers and t-storms with potential sub-VFR conditions are likely at times especially later in the day before conditions improve later at night.
Gusty southwest winds may approach 30-35 kts with gusts 35-40 kts possible at night behind fropa, not inclusive of stronger gust potential in storms.

Tuesday through Wednesday...VFR prevails with diminishing winds.

MARINE
Low pressure passes well north of the waters today. Winds turn to the northwest and increase to 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt on the northern New Jersey ocean waters, and up to 30 kt elsewhere.

Small Craft Advisories and Gale warnings are in effect for the waters today. There have been some minor timing changes, but the overall situation hasn't changes much from earlier. Fair weather expected.

Outlook...

Conditions likely drop below SCA levels for a time Saturday night before ramping back up ahead of the next system later Sunday into Sunday night. Gales could develop at times on Monday, with gales more likely Monday night before ramping back down on Tuesday. Rain also likely Sunday night, with showers and possibly gusty thunderstorms expected Monday into Monday night.

Sub-SCA winds may return by late Tuesday night or Wednesday, but waves may remain elevated.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ054-055- 060>062.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ430- 431.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ450>452.
Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ450>452.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ453>455.