Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Arnold, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Breezy northwest winds in the wake of the cold front that caused all the storminess across a huge swath of the country yesterday are ushering in much drier and more stable conditions to the Mid- Atlantic. There is still some lingering moisture and instability, and a little lift ahead of the parent trough could kick off a sprinkle or shower or two into this evening. Otherwise, it will be dry with a few passing clouds and tumbling temperatures.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will slide north of the area Sunday into Monday. A reinforcing cold front looks to push through early Monday, but overall a dry atmosphere should prevent much if any precipitation.
Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal, several degrees cooler than recent days.

By Monday night, the next (large) trough/upper low will dig into the midsection of the country. Its associated surface low and frontal system will begin to deepen as it heads toward the OH/TN Valley.
Clouds will increase, but for now most rain looks to stay to the west of the Appalachians through roughly daybreak Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Conditions should be fairly quiet to start the day on Tuesday as a strong dome of high pressure remains to the north over Ontario. However, clouds will increase from west to east on Tuesday, with rain showers overspreading the area toward nightfall. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the upper 60s to low 70s, accompanied by rather light winds. The influence of an upstream trough will further come into play during subsequent days.

A somewhat complicated pattern unfolds for the middle to latter portions of next week. The key players are a closed low barreling across the Midwest and a meadering system near the Ontario/Quebec border. As the latter retrogrades and interacts with the system crossing into the Ohio Valley, a multi-day period of unsettled conditions unfold over the region. There should be a decent fetch of moisture to work with as precipitable water values rising into the 1.25 to 1.50 inch range. Depending on where heavier rainfall elements set up, some flood risk may ensue given wet antecedent conditions. A preponderance of the rain falls Tuesday night into Wednesday where area-wide totals could push into the 1 to 1.50 inch range.

By late Wednesday night, ensemble solutions are showing a decent signal in secondary low formation occurring somewhere near the Virginia Tidewater to the Delmarva Peninsula.
Depending on exactly where this sets up, there could be another round of locally more intense rainfall within any banding signatures. This coastal low center should gradually lift northward in time while reaching the southern New England coast by Thursday evening. The mean upper trough is forecast to slowly pull away toward the east by Friday morning while the flow flattens out in the wake. However, some guidance shows additional shortwave energy digging through which would keep some precipitation chances in the picture.

Below average temperatures will be commonplace through the extended forecast period. The coolest days would be on Wednesday and Thursday given continued rain and cloud cover. Forecast highs each day should be in the 60s, with 50s across mountain locations.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through the valid TAF period. Winds a bit south of west will shift to a bit north of west as gusts diminish this evening. Winds will remain elevated a few thousand feet above the surface through Sunday morning, which could result in some marginal speed shear at times overnight as surface winds become light. Gustiness returns by mid to late Sunday morning into early Sunday evening, with gusts around 25 knots likely at times. VFR will continue through Monday night, with northwest winds a few knots lighter than Sunday.

While conditions should start off VFR on Tuesday, rain will overspread the area from west to east. This should lead to periods of restrictions by the evening, while continuing through the nighttime hours. A soaking rain is expected on Wednesday with a lengthy period of IFR conditions. By Wednesday night into Thursday morning, a coastal low may develop which would favor additional rainfall and more restrictions. In terms of winds, expect a ramp up in easterly flow by late Tuesday into Wednesday. Eventually these shift to northwesterly on Thursday as low pressure passes by to the west. Gusts up to 20 knots are possible on both Wednesday and Thursday.

MARINE
Westerly flow will gust 20 to 25 knots through this evening, with a few gusts around 30 knots possible just before sunset mainly for the northern/near shore/narrower waters. Winds are expected to slacken a bit overnight before increasing again Sunday mid morning through early evening. Additional gustiness, albeit at slightly lighter speeds, is possible during the day Monday out of a NW direction.

The influence of high pressure over the area should keep lighter winds in the picture for Tuesday. However, easterly winds pick up in strength by Tuesday night while continuing into Wednesday.
This is in response to low pressure approaching from the Midwest and high pressure anchored over Ontario. Small Craft Advisories are likely needed during this time.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ008.
VA...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ503.
WV...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ530>543.