Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elizabeth, WV
December 4, 2023 8:31 AM EST (13:31 UTC)
Sunrise 7:28AM Sunset 5:04PM Moonrise 11:58PM Moonset 12:53PM
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 041116 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 616 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023
SYNOPSIS
A series of upper level disturbances bring rounds of precipitation, including measurable snow for the northeastern mountains of West Virginia Tuesday and Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 613 AM Monday...
Abundant mid level clouds will gradually dissipate through this afternoon. However, clouds will increase again ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Adjusted hourly temperatures per latest observation trends through noon. Previous forecasts remains on track.
As of 257 AM Monday...
A mid level shortwave digs south across the KY and TN border today with an associated surface low pressure passing just to our south this afternoon and evening. These features will bring chances for showers, more numerous across the southern half of the CWA this afternoon and evening. Model consensus suggests precipitation will struggle to make it to the northeast mountains through tonight. Therefore, the chances for snow there are limited, depending whether moisture makes it that far north.
Westerly winds around 5 mph will turn northeast late afternoon and evening.
Cooler airmass behind the low pressure brings about normal temperatures today, generally in the upper 40 to lower 50s lowlands, ranging into the mid 30s highest elevations. CAA at H850 brings the freezing line south of the area. This will contribute to lows reaching the upper 20s across the northern third of the area, ranging into the mid 30s extreme southern WV and southwest VA tonight.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 150 AM Monday...
An Alberta Clipper will move through the region Tuesday bringing with it rain for most of the lowlands and measurable snow in the mountains. An upper-level wave gradually forcing a slight upper- ridge out of the area Tuesday. Tuesday will start out cloudy and cold with rain chances increasing west to east throughout the morning.
Confidence is certainly increasing in accumulating snow across the West Virginia mountains after review of the synoptic set up and model analysis. Cold air will be in place across the mountains, especially above 3,500 feet, and there appears to be little dry air intrusion as the surface high pressure moves out. Rain will be likely elsewhere as temperatures will be too warm.
Total snowfall in the mountains could be anywhere between 2-4" from Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon, with locally higher amounts possible. The highest amounts will be confined to the northeastern portion of the mountains and areas above 3,500 feet.
Light amounts up to half an inch likely for the western foothills.
The possibility remains for a brief change over to snow and wintry mix Wednesday morning across portions of the lowlands. Accumulations will not be likely as surfaces will be too wet from rainfall and temperatures will be too warm in spots.
Precipitation will start tapering off from the northwest by Wednesday afternoon, but upslope snow showers will likely continue across the mountains going into the evening, with some light accumulations possible.
Temperatures will be colder Wednesday as the cold front associated with the clipper moves eastward and out of the area. Highs Wednesday will hover around 40 across the lowlands, while the mountains will stay down in the upper 20s and 30s. Wednesday night's lows dropping back in the upper 20s across the lowlands, with lower 20s across the mountains. Residual cloud cover may prevent temperatures from dropping back in the teens across the mountains.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 230 AM Monday...
Ridge of high pressure moves in behind the trough. Skies will start clearing by late Thursday morning as cold NW flow shifts to the SW, keeping us dry through Friday. Winds may be breezy at times across the higher elevations through Friday with a tight pressure gradient overhead.
A warming trend will start Friday with southerly flow taking over. Low to mid 60s possible across the lowlands on Saturday as a result. Clouds and increased rain chances will also return Saturday ahead of a potent southern stream disturbance, which will arrive Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Another round of snow or wintry mix looks possible for the mountains Sunday into Monday. Some models are even predicting that lowlands may see rain change over to snow/wintry mix late Sunday into Monday.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 613 AM Monday...
A mid level shortwave will track south across the TN and KY border today, as a surface low pressure system passes just south of the area this afternoon and evening. These features will bring rain showers across the southern half of the area through this evening. Therefore, expect VFR conditions at least through 21Z. Then, rain showers could affect HTS and BKW later this afternoon and evening. Expect periods of MVFR/IFR with the heavier showers and along the central and southern mountains by 22Z Monday.
West to southwest winds around 5 knots this morning, becoming northwest this afternoon and evening. Flow aloft will generally be moderate from the west, slackening off a bit this afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Deterioration of VFR into MVFR/IFR conditions under rain showers may vary from forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 12/04/23 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M H L H M M H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in snow in the higher elevations of the mountains Tuesday night through Wednesday, when snow levels lower.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 616 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023
SYNOPSIS
A series of upper level disturbances bring rounds of precipitation, including measurable snow for the northeastern mountains of West Virginia Tuesday and Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 613 AM Monday...
Abundant mid level clouds will gradually dissipate through this afternoon. However, clouds will increase again ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Adjusted hourly temperatures per latest observation trends through noon. Previous forecasts remains on track.
As of 257 AM Monday...
A mid level shortwave digs south across the KY and TN border today with an associated surface low pressure passing just to our south this afternoon and evening. These features will bring chances for showers, more numerous across the southern half of the CWA this afternoon and evening. Model consensus suggests precipitation will struggle to make it to the northeast mountains through tonight. Therefore, the chances for snow there are limited, depending whether moisture makes it that far north.
Westerly winds around 5 mph will turn northeast late afternoon and evening.
Cooler airmass behind the low pressure brings about normal temperatures today, generally in the upper 40 to lower 50s lowlands, ranging into the mid 30s highest elevations. CAA at H850 brings the freezing line south of the area. This will contribute to lows reaching the upper 20s across the northern third of the area, ranging into the mid 30s extreme southern WV and southwest VA tonight.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 150 AM Monday...
An Alberta Clipper will move through the region Tuesday bringing with it rain for most of the lowlands and measurable snow in the mountains. An upper-level wave gradually forcing a slight upper- ridge out of the area Tuesday. Tuesday will start out cloudy and cold with rain chances increasing west to east throughout the morning.
Confidence is certainly increasing in accumulating snow across the West Virginia mountains after review of the synoptic set up and model analysis. Cold air will be in place across the mountains, especially above 3,500 feet, and there appears to be little dry air intrusion as the surface high pressure moves out. Rain will be likely elsewhere as temperatures will be too warm.
Total snowfall in the mountains could be anywhere between 2-4" from Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon, with locally higher amounts possible. The highest amounts will be confined to the northeastern portion of the mountains and areas above 3,500 feet.
Light amounts up to half an inch likely for the western foothills.
The possibility remains for a brief change over to snow and wintry mix Wednesday morning across portions of the lowlands. Accumulations will not be likely as surfaces will be too wet from rainfall and temperatures will be too warm in spots.
Precipitation will start tapering off from the northwest by Wednesday afternoon, but upslope snow showers will likely continue across the mountains going into the evening, with some light accumulations possible.
Temperatures will be colder Wednesday as the cold front associated with the clipper moves eastward and out of the area. Highs Wednesday will hover around 40 across the lowlands, while the mountains will stay down in the upper 20s and 30s. Wednesday night's lows dropping back in the upper 20s across the lowlands, with lower 20s across the mountains. Residual cloud cover may prevent temperatures from dropping back in the teens across the mountains.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 230 AM Monday...
Ridge of high pressure moves in behind the trough. Skies will start clearing by late Thursday morning as cold NW flow shifts to the SW, keeping us dry through Friday. Winds may be breezy at times across the higher elevations through Friday with a tight pressure gradient overhead.
A warming trend will start Friday with southerly flow taking over. Low to mid 60s possible across the lowlands on Saturday as a result. Clouds and increased rain chances will also return Saturday ahead of a potent southern stream disturbance, which will arrive Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Another round of snow or wintry mix looks possible for the mountains Sunday into Monday. Some models are even predicting that lowlands may see rain change over to snow/wintry mix late Sunday into Monday.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 613 AM Monday...
A mid level shortwave will track south across the TN and KY border today, as a surface low pressure system passes just south of the area this afternoon and evening. These features will bring rain showers across the southern half of the area through this evening. Therefore, expect VFR conditions at least through 21Z. Then, rain showers could affect HTS and BKW later this afternoon and evening. Expect periods of MVFR/IFR with the heavier showers and along the central and southern mountains by 22Z Monday.
West to southwest winds around 5 knots this morning, becoming northwest this afternoon and evening. Flow aloft will generally be moderate from the west, slackening off a bit this afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Deterioration of VFR into MVFR/IFR conditions under rain showers may vary from forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 12/04/23 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M H L H M M H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in snow in the higher elevations of the mountains Tuesday night through Wednesday, when snow levels lower.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPKB MIDOHIO VALLEY RGNL,WV | 22 sm | 38 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 36°F | 34°F | 93% | 29.91 |
Wind History from PKB
(wind in knots)
Charleston, WV,
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