Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elizabeth, WV

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Light snow is possible overnight across southeast Ohio and the northern West Virginia lowlands. In general, accumulations of a half inch or so are possible, with localized amounts up to one inch. This could lead to slick conditions for the Monday morning commute in some areas given the cold.

- 2) An arctic front will cross on the MLK holiday with a reinforcing shot of even colder air, gusty winds of 20-35 mph, and the chance for snow showers across the north. Colder air filters in Monday night amid dry conditions, with low wind chills expected across the area. Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for the higher terrain of West Virginia for Monday night into Tuesday. Additionally, a Wind Advisory has been issued for our mountain zones that could observe strong wind gusts on Monday.

- 3) The overall pattern of successive cold fronts persists, with one crossing Wednesday night, and then another next weekend, that one possibly with a wave of low pressure riding up along it. Temperatures return to near normal ahead of the fronts, and then back down below behind them.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Another round of light snow is possible overnight as a weak warm front associated with an Alberta Clipper/Saskatchewan Screamer pivots across the area. The best forcing will be across northern portions of the forecast area in southeast Ohio and the northern lowlands, with light snow progged beginning around midnight until near dawn. Have increased PoPs considerably from central guidance for this time-frame, with 40-60% currently progged north, while dry conditions persist south. In general, expect up to around a half inch or so, with localized totals up to one inch possible, with amounts being 'greatest' further north. Given the cold temperatures today/tonight, even minor accumulations could cause slick conditions for the Monday morning commute. Lows will be in the teens to low 20s overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After the overnight snow (Key Message 1), another round of scattered snow showers will be possible during the day on Monday, Martin Luther King Jr. Day, as an arctic front crosses the forecast area in association with the aforementioned Alberta Clipper/Saskatchewan Screamer that sweeps through the eastern Great Lakes on Monday. The front will be moisture- starved, but could result in ISOLD/SCT snow showers (20-30 percent), primarily from southeast Ohio east into the northern mountains. Upslope snow showers / flurries could linger across the northern mountains into early Monday night via a weak / dissipating moisture feed from Lake Michigan. A few snow showers across the far north could be locally heavy during the day on Monday, resulting in brief, but sudden, reductions in visibility.

It will become gusty on Monday as the arctic front crosses, with progged wind gusts increased from central guidance. Gusts of 20-35 mph are expected across the lowlands, with up to 45 mph (localized higher) across the higher mountain ridges as CAA overtakes the CWA After collaboration with neighboring offices, elected to issue a Wind Advisory for Northwest Pocahontas and Southeast Randolph Counties from 8 AM to 7 PM on Monday to capture the timeframe where gusts on the order of 45 to 50 mph could be observed. These gusts are progged to occur at the highest ridgetops of our two mountain zones, noted on model time series, and should diminish back below advisory thresholds shortly after sunset Monday evening.

The biggest story will be the colder air that will filter in on Monday night and Tuesday following the passage of the arctic front, with widespread single digit low temperatures expected, and then upper teens and 20s for highs across the lowlands and 10s for highs in the mountains. Lows will range from the single digits in the mountains, with upper single digits to mid teens across the lowlands Wednesday morning.

Steady sustained winds behind the arctic front, combined with the low temperatures, could result in minimum apparent temperature, or wind chill, values as low as -5 to -20 in the northern and central mountains, while (in general) +5 to -5 across the rest of the forecast area, by dawn Tuesday. Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for the mountains of West Virginia, running from 6 PM Monday until 2 PM Tuesday across the high elevation mountain zones, while from 9 PM Monday until noon Tuesday across the lower elevation mountain zones.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

After the cold start Wednesday morning, strong southwest flow ahead of another northern stream disturbance and associated cold front will increase temperatures by approximately 20 degrees from that of Tuesday, or back to normal for that of mid- January (upper 30s to mid 40s lowlands; 30s to low 40s mountains). There is a 30-60% chance for light precipitation Wednesday night, with a snow to rain back to snow transition with any precipitation that does occur during this time (mountains excluded - all snow there). Temperatures will fall back to ~ 5 to 10 degrees below normal on Thursday following the passage of the cold front.

Much uncertainty remains thereafter for the end of the work week into the weekend. Models prog another front, that being a significant arctic boundary, attempting to cross through the area late in the work week into the weekend, with a wave of low pressure potentially developing along the baroclinic zone and riding northeast. Multiple different outcomes remain possible with this, ranging from cold/dry versus a period of more prolonged / widespread precipitation. Confidence in storm track and precipitation type remains low, although it should be noted that overall ensemble spread has decreased since yesterday, with a noted southerly shift with today's 12Z guidance.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the valid TAF period, with the exception of brief MVFR ceilings due to a passing disturbance to the north. This may bring light snow showers, aforementioned drops in ceilings, and vsby reductions across our northern terminals late tonight into Monday morning. All terminals then return to VFR for the afternoon.

Southwesterly flow this evening will gradually back out of the west overnight in response to a frontal passage. This front will yield gradient winds aloft to increase and could cause brief LLWS at sites early Monday morning before mixing down to the surface. Breezy winds on the order of 20 to 30kts will then round out the period across all terminals in the wake of the front. Strongest wind gusts will be observed along the higher ridges of the West Virginia mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Sub-VFR conditions may vary across TAF sites overnight into Monday amid passing snow showers. Location and timing of low-level wind shear before dawn Monday may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE MON UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Monday to noon EST Tuesday for WVZ039-040-516-518-520-521-524-525.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 2 PM EST Tuesday for WVZ522-523-526.
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.