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FXUS61 KRLX 250657 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 257 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
Surface high pressure provides dry weather conditions and a warming trend through the end of the week. Chance for showers along the Middle Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 1030 PM Wednesday...

Freshened up temperatures and sky conditions for this evening.
Satellite trends show mainly clear skies outside of a stratus deck draping down from the north, that will attach itself to the northern half of the CWA as the night wears on. Also beginning to see llvl stratus developing along the mountains as anticipated. Cloud coverage may play a role in keeping temperatures slightly warmer than anticipated tonight, but with the possibility of frost in the event of overnight clearing, will maintain the frost advisory the way it is with this update.

As of 545 PM Wednesday...

Opted to expand the Frost Advisory to incorporate all of our southeast Ohio counties and into Wood County, WV for tonight into tomorrow morning.

As of 245 PM Wednesday...

Key Points: * Frost likely tonight in portions of Southeast Ohio.

Widespread mid-level cumulus across the region this afternoon should decrease in coverage this evening and overnight as we lose diurnal heating. Calming winds should combine with the clear skies to allow for frost development in our most northwestern counties, and a Frost Advisory has been posted for several of these counties, in decent alignment with neighbors. A few pockets of Perry County may drop below freezing, and some surrounding counties could have isolated pockets of frost, as well.

Otherwise, there may be some fog formation overnight, mainly in the mountains and high valleys, in addition to some potential low stratus. In general, the below normal temperatures will continue through the near-term, with lows mostly in the 30s.
Highs on Thursday will be in the 60s for most, about 10 degrees below normal, with 50s in the mountains.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 255 AM Thursday...

Heights build Friday ahead of low pressure emerging from the Central Rockies yielding mild and dry conditions with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the lower elevations. Mass convergence along the periphery of the low level jet along with warm frontal passage may yield some elevated showers, or perhaps a thunderstorm rooted near H850 mainly near the Middle Ohio Valley late Friday night into Saturday, although instability as well as parcel equilibrium levels will be pretty marginal.

The warm front largely clears the region to the north by Saturday afternoon leaving a bulk of the region in a quiet warm sector through the balance of the weekend. This yields increasingly mild conditions with highs on Saturday in the upper 70s to lower 80s and highs on Sunday in the mid 80s across the lower elevations. May not want to put that lawn work off until the weekend!



LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 250 AM Thursday...

Another very mild day is expected Monday with highs in the mid 80s across the lower elevations as the region remains in the dry warm sector.

There is a decent temporal spread among model forecast solutions regarding timing of cold frontal passage either late Monday evening or during the day Tuesday. While kinematics will be modest with cold frontal passage, poor mid-level lapse rates along with potentially less favorable frontal passage timing away from peak heating doesn't present much of a risk for severe storms at this juncture.

The region dries out in the wake of frontal passage either Tuesday night or Wednesday with a brief period of zonal flow before the next cold front arrives late Wednesday night.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 126 AM Thursday...

Satellite imagery and METARs show areas of low stratus affecting PKB, CKB and and EKN with MVFR ceilings. Expect these clouds to dig south, diminishing in coverage across the west, and persisting along the eastern mountains, perhaps reaching BKW during the predawn hours. Rest of sites should experience VFR conditions under light northerly flow.

Afternoon mixing could lead to some wind gusts up to 18 knots, before subsiding around sunset. Guidance suggests skies will gradually clear this afternoon continuing with widespread VFR conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of low stratus may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE THU 04/25/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M L L M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H M L L M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H M M H H H H H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
Patchy IFR possible along the mountains Friday night.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ009.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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