Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whitesboro, NJ

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whitesboro, NJ

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Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA

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FXUS61 KPHI 081415 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1015 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
Smoky and hazy conditions continue through the weekend as an area of low pressure will continue to drift around New England.
A couple of troughs rotating around that low will result in some scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, High pressure will bring dry and warmer weather for the weekend, followed by low pressure approaching from the west later Monday or Monday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Morning satellite imagery shows the thickest smoke concentration across mostly eastern New Jersey and our offshore waters. There does appear to be a distinguishable back edge to this plume, currently approaching the I-95 corridor as of 10AM. Visibilities to the north and west of this have improved some to 3+ miles.
This correlates pretty well with the latest HRRR near surface smoke run which does show improvement into this afternoon.
Regardless, the rest of the day will still feature hazy and smokey conditions, and Air Quality Alerts remain in effect through midnight tonight.

In addition to the smoke, an agitated cumulus field has developed across southern MD and is pushing into our Delmarva counties. RAP mesoanalysis does depict some instability down there with 30+ kt 0-6 km shear, and some lightning has been observed in the past hour. Hi-res guidance is still highlighting this region for possible convective development through this afternoon, so will continue to monitor. Otherwise, forecast is still on track.

Despite the closed low remaining mostly stationary, there is some hope through tomorrow both for improving smoke conditions and chances for precipitation. The now vertically stacked low is expected to only very slightly retrograde over the next 36 hours.
Currently it is centered over the Maine/Quebec border, but by mid day tomorrow it may be as far west as the NY/VT state line.
Additionally, a pair of embedded short wave troughs are expected to dig south on the back side of the main low (one later today and another during the day on Friday). These appear to be the main drivers for our rain chances through tomorrow.

On the mesoscale, a sea breeze is likely to develop today, and another one may develop tomorrow. With the forecast, I've mainly gone with the HRRR and RAP in trying to determine how far inland it will reach today - which depicts it staying SE of the 95 corridor.
That makes sense that it won't go as far inland as typical with the prevailing inland flow of westerly and northwesterly, but I'm not sure if the smoke will play any role in this. For today, the sea breeze will likely bring the best chance for rain (over the mid level short wave trough) as dewpoints remain quite low (in the 30s for some of the area!) so despite the lift with the trough, moisture will be lacking except where the marine layer can advect in.

As the low retrogrades slightly, that may be enough of a shift in the fetch to finally have modest moisture advection into the region ahead of the next short wave trough on Friday.

That being said, forecast PoPs and QPF are lower than much of the guidance as there has been a recent wet bias and I am concerned that with the increased number of condensation nuclei due to the smoke, any showers or storms that develop will be less efficient rainfall producers than typical.

As for temperatures, went slightly below guidance average as during the day today smoke may limit solar insolation. Guidance had a warm bias with the temperatures this morning, so am concerned that will continue with the low temperatures tonight unless the moisture advection starts sooner than we currently expect. Highs are forecast in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
With the upper level low just starting to drift to the east Friday night we'll see another round of mostly northwest flow aloft and some scattered showers passing through as yet another shortwave ripples through the mid levels. Absent a significant wind shift from the southwest or widespread rain, we'll still be under the influence of the smoke from the Canadian wildfires so anticipate hazy skies and reduced air quality.

There should be some reprieve from the smoke through the weekend as the upper level low is forecast to start pushing to the east. This will allow the winds to shift more from the northwest to the southwest bringing a new airmass to the region.
Weak ridging sets up between the departing upper level low and a cut off low that develops over the Great Lakes Sunday afternoon. Warmer temps will push into the region with 850mb temps between 8-10C across the region Saturday and then between 13-16C for Sunday. This supports afternoon highs on Saturday warming into the upper 70s to low 80s and then upper 80s to near 90 for afternoon highs on Wednesday. Most of the guidance and ensembles are holding the Philly metro under 90 on Sunday but there's at least a 25% chance Philly is >=90 for Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The upper level cutoff low becomes more strongly developed overnight on Monday and that should be final end of the smoke and hazy conditions across the region. Along with the upper level closed low will be an associated surface front that brings widespread and much need rainfall to the region. PWATs increase to 1.5 to 1.8" by Monday afternoon and with decent DVA there's ample lift for showers and thunderstorms. With the high PWATs and potential forcing, WPC has already including the region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. With as dry as its been, it should be challenging to see much flooding however if the rain falls quickly enough, its possible the rainfall would quickly turn to run off rather than being absorbed by dry ground. The EFI isn't super bullish on the event being outside norms for this time of year with the data showing it being approximately a 50th percentile event and not very different from climo.

Behind the front, heights start building with a drier and cooler airmass expected to move over the region by the middle of next week.
Highs are anticipated to be near normal from roughly Tuesday onwards with temps in the 80s.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today (12Z through 00Z)...IFR visibility with smoke and haze should improve to MVFR by late morning/early afternoon. The TAF sites most likely to see the improvement are KACY and KMIV if/when the sea breeze arrives at those sites. Isolated showers and storms are possible across the region, but have little confidence in the coverage or the impact to any one TAF site, so has been left out of the TAFs for now. N winds 5 to 7 kt in the morning, becoming W around 10 kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Sea breezes at KACY/KMIV will turn winds S 5 to 10 kt. There is a chance the sea breeze could work as far inland as KILG and KPHL, but confidence in that is low. Low confidence in the coverage of showers, timing of improving smoke conditions, and the timing of the sea breeze.

Tonight...MVFR or VFR visibilities depending on how much the smoke is able to clear out. KPHL, KILG, KPNE, and KTTN have a slightly higher risk to see visibility restrictions lingering longer, but can't rule it out at the other TAF sites as well. Ceilings in the 7000 to 10000 ft AGL range. Winds light and variable especially in the vicinity of the sea breeze through the evening, but the direction should favor NW or W for much of the night.

Outlook...

Friday...Should see some improving conditions with respect to smoke and haze, however, could see temporary visibility and ceiling restrictions from mid morning onward as chances for showers and storms increase. Winds N or NW 5 to 10 kt for much of the day. Another chance for a wind shift to S or SE due to a sea breeze, especially at KACY and KMIV, but confidence is low at this time. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on timing details especially with regards to the sea breeze and shower and storm development.

Saturday...VFR. West-northwest winds around 10 kts, with gusts up to 20 kts. Winds decrease to around 5 knots at night. Moderate confidence.

Sunday...VFR. Winds gradually become more southerly through the day around 10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Monday...VFR possibly lowering to MVFR late in the day in the form of reduced ceilings in rainfall. Southerly winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts over 20 kt possible. Low confidence.

MARINE
We are expecting to see some improvement with regards to the smoke conditions by mid day, so have kept the marine dense smoke advisory through 11 AM for the NJ Atlantic Coastal waters.

Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions through Friday.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...No marine headlines expected. Winds generally south-southwest 5-10 kt. Seas of 1 to 3 feet.

Sunday and Monday...SCA conditions possible. Winds SSE 10-20 kt, possibly gusting to 25 kt by Monday. Seas building to 3-5 ft.

Rip Currents...

Today...There is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the New Jersey and Delaware beaches. NW winds 5 to 10 mph in the morning will turn S around midday due to afternoon sea breezes. Breaking waves 3 to 4 ft with a 5 to 7 second easterly swell.

Friday...There is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the New Jersey and Delaware beaches. E winds 5 to 10 mph in the morning will turn S around midday due to afternoon sea breezes. Breaking waves 3 to 4 ft with a 5 to 7 second southeasterly swell.

FIRE WEATHER
For Thursday, forecast relative humidity values will fall to around 25-30% across the area, though winds will hold around 10 mph. Some scattered showers are possible across southern New Jersey and Delmarva, though widespread precipitation is not expected.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ450>453.

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Wind History for Cape May, NJ

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Wind History from WWD (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Dias Creek, Route 47 bridge, Delaware Bay, New Jersey

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