Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cape St. Claire, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
900 PM...As of mid evening, high pressure continues to dominate the mid Atlantic with low pressure, both at the surface and aloft, located near the Gulf coast. This low will be the main player in weather changes over the next few days.

That said, the impacts through Monday should mostly be minimal.
High clouds have moved into the region and will slowly continue to increase and spread northward tonight and Monday, gradually thickening as they do so. However we'll still see some sun on Monday, especially in the morning. Chance of any showers holds off until late in the day for the Maryland eastern shore and southern Delaware, and should wait until after sunset elsewhere.
Winds are becoming northeasterly this evening, then will become southeasterly early Monday, and finally southerly Monday afternoon, but generally remain in the 5-10 mph range or less.
After highs today generally around 80 in much of the area, lows tonight will mostly be in the 50s from Philly south, with 40s north of Philly. Monday will see highs fairly close to 80 again, and again cooler at the shore and in the Poconos, but also a little cooler south of Philly in the Delmarva where thicker clouds and perhaps a few late day showers keep temps a little lower.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure slowly shifts east Monday night, and then lifts north Tuesday through Tuesday night. A warm front lifts north through the region Monday night, and then low pressure slowly moves into the Mid- Atlantic Tuesday through Tuesday night.

Scattered showers move into Delmarva on Monday night. Showers will then overspread the area from southwest to northeast through Tuesday night. Widespread showers hang around through at least Wednesday.
Showers will generally be light, but there could be a few moderate to heavy showers at times. Flooding risk is low however, and only have a Marginal Risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall for most of the region. From Monday night through Wednesday, the area will generally be around a half inch to an inch, with amounts over an inch possible, mainly over Delmarva. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over Delmarva as well Tuesday night, but no real threat for severe weather.

Clouds and rain will keep the area cooler on Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Lows at night will be muggy and in the 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
The approaching closed low gradually opens back up into a shortwave trough by Wednesday Night as it continues moving towards the region, then finally passes overhead on Thursday. As the system approaches, shower coverage should remain fairly widespread into Wednesday night with some isolated embedded thunderstorms possible. By Wednesday night, our temperatures fall into the upper 50s to low 60s.

The shower coverage may be a bit more isolated Thursday morning before becoming a bit more scattered again for the afternoon. For Thursday, highs reach into the 70s for most. Temperatures do not fall too much overnight Thursday as lows are mainly in the low to mid 60s.

There is a brief lull in the unsettled weather Thursday night into Friday morning, as an upper-level ridge builds in with a weak surface high pressure system. This will allow drier conditions but does not do much in the way of cloud cover. The high pressure system does not last long as more unsettled weather arrives the second half of Friday. A low pressure system over the Great Lakes will lead to unsettled weather into Saturday. Both days temperatures look to climb into the 80s for highs. There is also a signal there for a cold front to move through later in the day Friday which could lead to more of a focal point for the showers and any thunderstorm potential. Another cold front arrives later Saturday, which could have a similar scenario as Friday by leading to a more focused area of showers and thunderstorms. Will note that these series of fronts both Friday and Saturday will have more instability available than the midweek system. So it bears watching for the severe potential, as the 500 mb pattern looks a bit interesting as well. However, would not say there is an overwhelming signal for widespread severe weather at this point.
This timeframe is a ways away though with uncertainty but does look active.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR through Monday with increasing high clouds. NW winds shifting to NE through this evening, then east, then southeast by early Monday around 5 kts, then increasing from the south to 5-10 kts Monday afternoon. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday Night...Primarily VFR, though showers approach from the southwest, potentially bringing some restrictions.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Primarily IFR with showers and low clouds expected. Slight chance (15%) of a thunderstorm.

Wednesday Night through Friday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions likely (80-90%) with low clouds and scattered showers. If there were a period of VFR, it would be Thursday Night into Friday, though stratus could hang around. Thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon (30-40% chance).

MARINE
No marine headlines expected through Monday. Light offshore flow today will become easterly tonight and then southerly by Monday afternoon, increasing to around 10 kts. Seas 2-3 feet on the ocean.

Outlook...

Monday Night through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday...SCA conditions expected with seas 5 to 7 feet and wind gusts near 25 kt at times, especially on the southern waters.

Wednesday Night through Thursday...SCA conditions possible (50-60%)
with seas near 5 feet.

Thursday Night through Friday...No marine headlines expected.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.