Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Shore, MD

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A strong cold front brings gusty winds, potential for severe weather, and below average temperatures.

- 2) Dry conditions through next week with temperatures returning to mid-October normals.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front brings gusty winds, potential for severe weather, and below average temperatures.

Model guidance is in relatively good agreement showing a potent, positively-tilted trough stretching from the Great Lakes down towards the Great Plains tracking eastward throughout the day today. At the surface, the trough pushes a strong cold front across the forecast area this afternoon and into the evening.
Clouds may briefly clear for a period late this morning and afternoon before additional clouds move in from the incoming cold front later today. Highs today rise into the 80s for most with higher elevations staying in the 70s. With warm conditions and sunny skies, a line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the passing cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the area east of the Blue Ridge/Catoctins and north of US-50/I-66 in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather, driven primarily by a risk of damaging wind gusts. The highest probabilities are in the vicinity of NE MD (30% probs).
Additionally, a quick QLCS tornado is possible, mainly in NE MD, where SPC also has a 2% tornado risk.

Precipitation lingers behind the cold front as the upper trough pivots overhead tonight. Gusty winds remain possible beginning this evening and persisting through Saturday. Winds will likely remain elevated across most of the area, although the higher elevations along the Alleghenies may have the highest peak gusts (between 30 and 40 mph). All areas are expected to remain below Wind Advisory criteria, although a few isolated gusts to near 45 mph are possible along the highest ridges.

Noticeably cooler temperatures rush in behind the front with high temperatures on Saturday being approximately 25-30 degrees colder compared to today. Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s across the forecast area with overnight lows dropping into the 30s to low 40s. Frost/Freeze headlines are likely for early Sunday morning, mainly west of I-95 where winds will be lower.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions through next week with temperatures returning to mid-October normals.

Heading into next week, high pressure remains overhead through the middle of the week. A dry and benign weather pattern is expected during this time with near normal temperatures for mid-October.
Although several global ensemble members depict a coastal low forming off the Mid-Atlantic shore early next week, most members maintain dry and seasonable weather. If this low pressure system were to move closer to the coast, chances for precipitation could change next week, but confidence is low.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR to IFR ceilings continue through this morning before conditions improve quickly to VFR. A strong cold front crosses the terminals this afternoon and into this evening, bringing a chance for thunderstorms, gusty winds and a wind shift. Sub-VFR conditions are possible during storms. Some storms may be severe with damaging winds as the primary threat. Low clouds are possible again tonight with VFR conditions returning Saturday.
For the winds, southwest winds this morning shift to northwest in the wake of the cold front. Winds remain out of the northwest on Saturday, gusting 20 to 30 knots. Winds diminish on Sunday with VFR conditions expected.

VFR conditions are expected to persist for all terminals at the beginning of next week. Light northeasterly wind on Monday shift northerly by Tuesday.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisories are in effect across all waters with S winds gusting 20 knots. A strong cold front crosses the waters this afternoon and into the evening, bringing gusty W/NW winds and a chance for thunderstorms. Special Marine Warnings are possible as storms cross the waters later today. Winds shift to northwesterly behind the front tonight and increase with gusts around 35 knots. The Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning for late tonight through Saturday for the wider waters.
Winds shift to northeast on Sunday and are expected to remain below SCA criteria.

Wind gusts remain below SCA criteria on Monday with light northeasterly winds. Northerly winds could approach SCA criteria on Tuesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Southerly flow has resulted in rising water levels this morning, with threshold minor flooding at Annapolis and Alexandria.
Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for these sites until 11PM and 2PM EDT, respectively. Havre de Grace could come close to minor, as well.

A cold front will shift winds to the west and northwest resulting in decreasing water levels this evening. At this time, Annapolis is forecasted to reach minor flooding again in the next tide cycle, and Alexandria and Havre de Grace could become close as well. Will continue to monitor and issue additional advisories as necessary.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ008.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ014.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ054.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>543.
Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ532>534-537-543.