Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Shore, MD

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A closed low will push through the Ohio/Mississippi Valley which will be undercutting a ridge, briefly forming a rex block.
Another ULL in southern Canada is forecast to slowly merge with the northern US trough. Multiple shortwaves are expected to slide through the local area during this time. The passage of these waves will result in the greatest rainfall chances through the period. The interaction of these features will result in cloudy, rainy, and cool conditions through the week.

Much of today will be dry for all areas, with increasing clouds being the main story from west to east. This evening, shower activity is possible mainly west of the Blue Ridge. This activity will spread eastward tonight. High temperatures on Tuesday should largely range from the upper 60s to mid 70s, slightly cooler in the mountains. The added cloud cover and rainfall will hold nighttime temperatures in the 50s.

The aforementioned large scale pattern will allow for a rather moist environment locally Tuesday night into Wednesday with PWs on the upper side of climo percentiles. Most ensemble guidance has the area in a broad half to one and a half inches of rain, though the far NW portions of the area is near 2-3". Have contemplated a flood watch in the NW portions of the CWA for areas hardest hit by last week's heavy rains. The higher threat may not arrive until Wednesday. WPC has introduced a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall in this area where the stationary front looks to stall with easterly flow east of the front running into westerly flow west of the front. This will result in convergence. This combined with shortwave energy should enhance the lift. Main uncertainty wrt not issuing a flood watch at this time is rain rates due to how much instability would be present.
Will let future shifts evaluated the need for any potential flood watches in that area. SPC does have the area in a Marginal Risk for severe wx Wednesday. Given the CAD signature, this is a conditional risk for areas that may have breaks in the cldcvr allowing for instability to develop. There is plenty of shear, so just a matter of how much instability.

After spending the day wedged in with high temperatures in the upper 50s to 60s, expect diurnal ranges to stay low into Wednesday night with lows in the upper 40s to 50s (slightly cooler in the mountains). Some breaks in the rain are possible as an area of low pressure materializes off the southeastern Virginia coast.

Come Thursday, additional rain showers or even a period of steadier rain is possible as a lobe of vorticity rotates through the area. Better forcing is north into PA, but regardless more rain is likely across the area. Temps well below normal Thursday as well with 50s in the mountains (40s above 4kft), and 60s to near 70 elsewhere. Another chilly night Thursday with lows in the 40s for most (30s in the mtns).

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
An elongated trough stretching from the Northern High Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will prevail through the end of this week, with numerous other troughs likely to follow into Memorial Day weekend. An active weather pattern over our area for Wednesday and Thursday as a wave of low pressure develops in lee of the Blue Ridge, then quickly slides offshore. A secondary surface low develops to our north on Thursday, then a cold front finally slides through Thursday night. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are forecast both days, especially on Wednesday where rain chances are at 90pct. Anomalously cool temperatures overspread the area for mid week as highs only reach the 60s, with overnight lows in the 50s.
Colder air surges in Thursday night behind the front, dropping lows to the 40s to around 50F.

As we head into Memorial Day weekend the forecast will be heavily influenced by the position of the upper trough across the Northeast states. If it is closer to the Mid-Atlantic, we could see showery and cloudy conditions on the backside of the trough. Otherwise, anything to the north will keep conditions drier and warmer heading into the weekend. There should be an overall slight warming trend as highs reach the 70s areawide by Sunday, but it does look like the holiday weekend will see below normal temperatures.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Expect VFR conditions through much of the day today with light winds. Clouds will increase through the day today. However, any rainfall should hold off until this evening into the night.
This likely starts a lengthy period of restrictions across the area terminals. By daybreak Wednesday, widespread IFR conditions are expected.

For Wednesday, a cold air damming signature is evident which will keep conditions cool and cloudy, with widespread rain expected. IFR conditions will likely persist with a breezy easterly wind gusting to around 15 to 20 knots. This pattern holds into Wednesday night with further restrictions expected.

Sub-VFR conditions are possible Thursday as a wave of low pressure moves just south of our area. This will bring periods of showers and possible thunderstorms each day, especially on Wednesday when coverage of precipitation will be very high.
Conditions begin to improve Thursday as the low pressure moves away, though winds could gust to around 20 knots in the afternoon.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisories remain in place across the middle and lower Chesapeake as well as lower Tidal Potomac through mid- morning.

Much of today will be calmer across the marine waters. However, a ramp up in easterly flow will support another round of Small Craft Advisories for tonight into Wednesday. Easterly gusts of 20 to 25 knots are currently in the forecast. Will wait to issue an SCA until the current SCA expires.

SCA winds are possible Wednesday into Thursday as a wave of low pressure moves across southern VA into the western Atlantic. This will also bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to the waters, then a cold front sweeps through Thursday night.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
By this evening, the combination of strong high pressure to the north over Ontario with low pressure passing through to the south, winds will shift to easterly while strengthening in time.
During a 36-hour period stretching from tonight through Thursday morning, there will be an increasing threat for Minor tidal flooding at the more sensitive locations. In particular, this would include Annapolis where the Steven's ensembles show an outside chance of Moderate flooding. Water levels eventually drop off on Thursday as winds shift to northwesterly.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ532>534-537-543.