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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 746 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Today..NE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Waves 4 ft. Rain. Isolated tstms this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 45 kt... Becoming E 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt late. Waves 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming se 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Sun night..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..NE winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. A chance of showers through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 746 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
tropical storm ophelia will approach the area from the south, moving across the mid-atlantic this weekend. Strong wind gusts in excess of 40 to 50 knots are expected over the waters through Sunday morning. The remnant low pressure system will move north of the area by late Sunday, with high pressure building in from the north by Monday, continuing through mid-week. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Sunday, and again early next week.

FXUS61 KPHI 231055 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 655 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure is giving way to Tropical Storm Ophelia approaching from the south. Ophelia will weaken to a remnant area of low pressure over the weekend while tracking across our region, before departing on Monday. High pressure builds over Canada and the Northeast US through the middle of the week. Unsettled weather looks to return late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Tropical Storm Ophelia has made landfall on the North Carolina coast early this morning. Have made some refinements to the forecast through tonight based on the latest observation and model trends, but overall the expected impacts to our local area remain unchanged from earlier forecasts. Only changes to hazards/headlines were surf/rip-current related.

High pressure extending from Nova Scotia to New England will gradually give way and slip eastward while Ophelia approaches from the south. Ophelia will weaken steadily while tracking inland, and begin to transition to an extratropical cyclone while drifting over eastern Virginia tonight. In any case, the classification of the low pressure system will not be critical as far as sensible weather and impacts go for our region; the key factor will remain the strong pressure gradient between the low and the high to the north, which will be driven to a certain degree by the strength of the low. As the low weakens and approaches our region later today and tonight, the strongest pressure gradient will weaken as well while shifting northward.
Winds are already gusting near 50 mph along Delaware's Atlantic Coast, with near 40 mph gusts along the NJ shore during the predawn hours. These winds will continue to ramp up further over the next several hours, peaking this morning across most of our region. High Wind Warnings remain in effect for coastal zones through this afternoon, where the most exposed sites near the beaches may briefly gust to 60 mph this morning. Wind Advisories remain in effect for many adjacent inland zones. The advisories for interior Delaware and eastern Maryland might be a little marginal, but the latest HRRR at least suggests that gusts of 40 to 45 mph my occur briefly there later this morning and into early afternoon. As the tighter gradient shifts northward and weakens, winds will lessen somewhat this afternoon along most of the coast south of Barnegat Light, especially toward Delaware.
However, more generally windy conditions with gusts still 20 to 30 mph will linger into tonight; locally higher along the Monmouth and Ocean County coasts.

Moderate to briefly heavy rain will overspread the region this morning, but rates do not appear too impressive. Perhaps over 0.25 inches per hour in the main band that is lifting northward.
Some areas along the DE and NJ coastal plain, particularly toward coastal NJ, may see 1/2 inch to an inch in 3-6 hours at at time, but this should be nothing that will cause any flooding issues. Aside from the winds and coastal flooding, we will have to keep an eye on thunderstorms trying to track northwestward off the ocean into the Delmarva and around Cape May to perhaps Atlantic City this afternoon into this evening.
Especially if just enough instability becomes available, storms will be capable of rotation, and a waterspout or two may try to make it onshore with discrete stronger storms.

Additionally, with a more humid airmass and convective environment in place, there may be some potential for heavier rain around the Delmarva into far southern NJ this afternoon and this evening, perhaps over an inch per hour. However, that will still be far below flash flood guidance, so at most there might be some localized minor/brief flooding in poor-drainage areas. The heavy rain, however, may exacerbate coastal flooding that will occur during times of high tide. Otherwise, across much of the northern 2/3 of our area from Philly northward, rain will actually tend to become more intermittent from midday through this evening. As what's left of weakening/transitioning Tropical Storm Ophelia tracks across Virginia toward the Chesapeake tonight, additional rain will tend to overspread more of the area tonight...but still, the threat for heavy rainfall looks rather limited. That's not to say we will see quite a bit of rain over the course of the weekend...as we are still looking at 2 to 3 inch totals through Sunday in most spots. Even with the breaks in the rain, it will be a cloudy, inclement day with the brisk winds, with downright hazardous conditions near the immediate coast. Highs will only be in the 60s for most of the area, with muggy conditions and low to mid 70s in far southern coastal NJ and southern Delaware.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Models still aren't in full agreement on the path or progression of the remnants of Ophelia as it tracks northward towards our area Sunday before turning and slowly meandering north and east across our region. General consensus from the GFS/ECMWF/GEM in the latest round of guidance is to have the center of the low turn to the right as it crosses the Chesapeake Bay then move east- northeasterly across Delmarva and southeastern New Jersey before meandering off the coast. The NAM is a bit of an outlier in this round of guidance, continuing with the more north-northeasterly track across New Jersey. In any case, frontal banding on the north side of the decaying low is expected to provide continuing rain, possibly heavy at times, and breezy conditions on Sunday especially across our PA and NJ areas. Depending on the exact track of the low, there remains some concern for additional heavy rainfall in our southeast PA counties especially. The 00z guidance, including available CAMs, continues to hint at a period of easterly wind on the north side of the low resulting in upslope flow and localized higher amounts of rainfall across Chester, Berks, Lehigh, Montgomery Counties. This upslope effect may be minimized somewhat by the more southerly track but stronger forcing along the immediate front could still allow for a similar enhancement in rainfall totals. Will have to continue see how the rest of the CAMs come in within the next 24 hours to get a better idea, but the potential is there. Otherwise, rain is forecast to gradually become more scattered through the day, though those that do see breaks from the rain will still be left with thick cloud coverage and a continuing breeze.
Temperatures won't move much from overnight lows with highs topping out in the low to mid 60s west of I-95 and upper 60s to low 70s south and east of I-95.

Into the day on Monday, the low will continue to weaken and a building ridge of strong high pressure located well off to our north will try to suppress the northward extent of what's left of the low and its precipitation. A tightening gradient building between the high and the low will result in increased east/northeast gradient wind on Monday, though not as high what we saw over the weekend with gusts looking to peak in the 20-25 mph range. With the onshore flow, expect that Monday will be another dreary day and feature more thick cloud coverage and showers, along with very little of a diurnal temperature range as highs will only top out in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The long term forecast has overall little change since the previous forecast package as most of the guidance remains relatively unchanged. The remnants of Ophelia drift east and offshore Monday night. A few leftover showers may linger across the area, so have kept a slight chance to chance (20-40%) of showers through Tuesday.

A strong Canadian high out of Quebec then builds over the northeastern US through Thursday. At upper levels, a troughing pattern persists which may ultimately may become a blocky ULL pattern through the end of the week. With the strong high in place, the northern two-thirds of the forecast area should be dry through Thursday. However, a surface trough develops along/just south of the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Wednesday.
Thus, have opted to keep a 20- 30% chance of showers for portions of the Delmarva and southern NJ. To end the week, the high breaks down and signals of a cut-off ULL low to our west yields an increase in the likelihood of precip to return to the area into Friday.

Overall, below-normal temperatures should continue throughout the long term period; generally in the mid-upper 60s to low 70s for highs and upper 40s to mid-upper 50s for lows.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Today...MVFR/IFR conditions along with periods of rain. VSBY may improve to VFR this afternoon in some areas, but IFR ceilings may linger much of the day. Northeast winds 15-25 knots with gusts 25-35 knots, with 45 kt possible nearing the coast including ACY. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...IFR with periods of rain and low ceilings. Northeast winds 12-20 kt with gusts lingering around 25 kt or so, at least through the evening. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions likely with showers. Easterly wind 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Moderate confidence.

Monday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with lingering showers.
Northeasterly wind 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Moderate confidence.

Monday night...Primarily VFR. Sub-VFR possible especially toward the coast. NE winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible. Low confidence.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...VFR. NE winds around 15 kt gusting up to 20-25 kt during the day, becoming around 10 kt at night. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday...VFR. NE-E winds around 10-15 kt with isolated gusts up to 20 kt. Moderate confidence.

MARINE
Tropical Storm Ophelia will move into the Carolina coast early this morning. NE winds early this morning around 25 to 30 kt with gusts 40 to 45 kt will continue to increase through this morning as the pressure gradient tightens further, to 25 to 35 kt with 45 to 50 kt gusts. As the stronger pressure gradient shifts northward to north of Barnegat Light later this afternoon, winds to the south will ease, and we will probably be able to drop to Small Craft Advisory for most zones through tonight for most zones. However, wind gusts north of Barnegat will linger 35 to 40 kt into this evening, as well as locally around upper Delaware Bay. Winds should continue to drop tonight, from the E or ENE 10-20 kt by morning, but locally up to 25 kt sustained possible still off the Monmouth County coast early Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, seas have cracked 15 ft at Buoy 9 this morning, and will remain at least 10 to 15 feet on the ocean today before subsiding to 8 to 12 feet tonight. On Delaware Bay, seas build to 6 to 8 feet today before subsiding to 3 to 5 feet tonight.

VSBY restrictions in moderate to heavy rain will be likely, and some thunderstorms will be possible from near Atlantic City southward this afternoon into tonight. Would not rule out an isolated waterspout.

Outlook...

Sunday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely. East- southeasterly wind 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Seas 8-10 feet decreasing to 6-8 feet in the afternoon.

Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely. Northeasterly wind 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Seas 5-7 feet.

Monday night...SCA conditions likely. NE winds around 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt possible. Seas 4-7 feet.

Tuesday...SCA conditions likely. NE-E winds around 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5-7 feet.

Wednesday...SCA conditions possible. NE-E winds around 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4-6 feet.

Rip Currents...

Through tonight, a HIGH risk continues for life-threatening rip currents for the Delaware and New Jersey beaches. Onshore winds 30- 40 mph with gusts to 50-60 mph. Breaking waves also increase to 6 to 10 feet, even locally higher, with a building easterly swell near 12- 14 ft. A High Surf Advisory is in effect through tonight as a result of the greater than 8-foot breaking waves.

For Sunday, a HIGH risk of life-threatening rip currents will persist as a coastal storm continues to impact the region. Winds will subside substantially tonight into Sunday, but will remain generally onshore E/SE 12 to 20 kt on Sunday. Seas will lower, but will still result in breaking waves in the 5 to 7 ft range along much of the NJ shore, but a bit lower near Cape May to the Delaware Beaches. The HIGH risk of rip currents may even continue into Monday for at least a portion of the area, particularly north of Brigantine.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
No changes to Coastal Flood headlines with the latest update.

A potentially significant coastal flood event is still forecast for Saturday's high tide along portions of Atlantic Coastal New Jersey and Delaware, and Delaware Bay. Tidal levels are running a touch higher than the previous forecast so values were generally increased slightly but overall remain similar. We are still expecting moderate to locally major flooding for areas from Barnegat Bay southward to Cape May, and along the Kent and Sussex County (DE) coast. Coastal Flood Warnings are in effect for those areas, with advisories elsewhere. The exception is Kent County, Maryland on the far upper eastern shore of the Chesapeake, where only spotty minor flooding at most is expected, due to the strong northeast winds.

A strong onshore wind will increase reaching a peak on Saturday midday. The greatest surge and tidal departures are forecast to occur with the Saturday afternoon high tide along the coasts of Kent and Sussex Counties in Delaware, and potentially along coastal portions of Cape May and Atlantic Counties in New Jersey.

The greatest threat for Major coastal flooding will be along the coasts of Kent and Sussex Counties in Delaware, however some spotty major flooding is possible in Cape May and Atlantic Counties.

Modest onshore winds will persist Saturday night into Sunday as the remnant low of Ophelia moves northward. This could result in lingering minor coastal flooding with the Sunday high tides, especially along back bays that do not drain well at low tide.
That may require some extension of warnings and advisories.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ016.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ013-014-020- 022-023-027.
Coastal Flood Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ020-022>027.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ024>026.
High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for NJZ014- 024>026.
High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ014-024>026.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening for NJZ012>014-021.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for DEZ002-003.
Coastal Flood Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ002>004.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004.
High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for DEZ004.
High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ004.
MD...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ012-015-019- 020.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ430.
Storm Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ431-450>455.

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Cliffs Wharf
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:11 AM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:02 AM EDT     1.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:21 PM EDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:59 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cliffs Wharf, Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:48 AM EDT     -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:52 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:51 PM EDT     0.22 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:58 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:05 PM EDT     -0.41 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:42 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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