Sunday, February16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Strathmere, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 5:36PM Sunday February 16, 2020 11:05 PM EST (04:05 UTC) Moonrise 2:14AMMoonset 12:30PM Illumination 41% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ453 Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 930 Pm Est Sun Feb 16 2020
Rest of tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw late. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Mon..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the late evening and overnight. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of rain.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 930 Pm Est Sun Feb 16 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A weak cold front will move through the area tonight. High pressure will build across to the north of our area on Monday. A warm front will lift through late Monday night, followed by a cold front on Tuesday. A large area of high pressure will build into the mid- atlantic region and persist through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Strathmere, NJ
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location: 39.13, -74.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 170234 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 934 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front will move through the area tonight. High pressure will build across to the north of our area on Monday. A warm front will lift through late Monday night, followed by a cold front on Tuesday. A large area of high pressure will build into the Mid- Atlantic region and persist through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. 930 pm update: Radar echoes are quite unimpressive in the northwest CWA, but a couple of surface observations have indicated light rain, so will keep inherited very low PoPs going through midnight. However, did change hourly temperatures and dew points somewhat this evening, as surface obs indicate that temperatures are running colder (warmer) than forecast in rural (urban) areas and dew points are somewhat lower than projections in most locations.

Previous discussion .

The weak cold front currently over the Great Lakes region is expected to cross our region tonight. It looks like the front is on track to arrive a few hours earlier than what the models were depicting yesterday, as it may be through much of the region by 06Z/1 AM EST.

Precipitation this evening (associated with this front) is looking very unlikely. There is very limited synoptic scale lift (even the upper level jet that the GFS was showing yesterday now looks to be much further east by this evening, resulting in the best lift associated with that to arrive way ahead of the front). Even on the mesoscale, lift associated with the cold front appears to be limited. Therefore, kept the chance for precip at 20 percent. Even if there are any showers, do not expect the rain or snow amounts to be very much.

The temperature gradient across this front is rather weak even looking at upstream observations Sunday afternoon (and the front may weaken even more by the time it reaches our region), so we likely won't see much impact with our temperatures tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/. In between the cold front tonight and the next low pressure system lifting out of the central plains, Monday should be pleasant and tranquil. As the surface high crossing southern Canada shifts further east, winds over our region will become northeasterly, leading to light onshore flow. As mentioned above, the cold front will have limited impact on our temperatures aside from halting the warming trend. So highs on Monday will be close to Sunday's highs, from the upper 30s in the southern Poconos to lower 50s in portions of northern Delmarva.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. No significant changes to the extended portion of the forecast . or the AO.

The long term looks pretty quiet with just one system moving through and a good deal of high (and dry) pressure across the eastern states.

Monday night should be relatively quiet although a warm front will start to lift into the region late. For the most part, expect the entire night to remain dry although it is possible some light rain/snow showers can reach our westernmost areas by early morning.

Tuesday will feature a low pressure system crossing through the Great Lakes and into Canada. The associated warm front should lift north of the area Tuesday morning followed by the associated cold front Tuesday afternoon/evening. We should see warming occur ahead of the cold fronts arrival, but it is possible that some of the cold air remains long enough for the precipitation to arrive so we may see some snow/rain mix occur with around a half of an inch or so of snow accumulation possible across portions of the southern Poconos or northwest New Jersey. With temps warming up, a changeover to rain is expected. Rain will gradually move through the region and is expected to remain on the lighter side as the front doesn't seem to have a great connection to a big moisture source (like the GoM). The rain will end from west to east as the front moves towards the coast and then offshore Tuesday night.

Wednesday will be the start of relatively benign weather across the region as high pressure starts to make its eastward from the central part of the country. A few lingering showers may remain across our extreme southern areas early Wednesday but the front will push further offshore and they should end relatively quickly. A push of cold air will start to arrive to the region as a secondary (but dry) front crossed the area on Wednesday so expect it to be on the cool side. But the core of the cold air looks to shift across to our north on Thursday so expect even colder temps to arrive for the end of the week. Once we head towards the weekend, we should see some moderation of the airmass as the center of the high starts to shift to our south and we start to see a return to more of a southwesterly flow across the area.

The next opportunity for any kind of precipitation doesn't look to be until early in the new week. Definitely a nice stretch of dry weather across the Mid-Atlantic as we head through the second half of February.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . VFR with evening CIGs 5-10 kft dissipating late tonight. Generally variable winds under 10 kt, though directions will likely become predominantly north or northwest after 06z. High confidence.

Monday . VFR with light north winds becoming northeast in the late afternoon. High confidence.

Outlook .

Monday night . Mainly VFR conditions expected. Cigs will lower through the night with possible MVFR conditions possible late. East to southeast winds around 5 to 10 knots. High confidence with moderate confidence on MVFR conditions.

Tuesday through Tuesday night . Mainly MVFR conditions expected as rain overspreads the terminals. IFR conditions are possible. Conditions should improve late as precipitation ends Tuesday night, with a return to VFR expected. Southeast winds will veer to the southwest during the day and then to the northwest overnight. Speeds will generally be around 5 to 10 knots with some gusts around 20 knots possible. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday through Friday . Mainly VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds around 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. High confidence.

MARINE. Winds and seas should stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria tonight and tomorrow. An abrupt shift from southwesterly to northwesterly winds is expected overnight as a cold front crosses the region.

Outlook .

Monday night . Sub-SCA conditions expected. East winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Seas around with 2 to 3 feet.

Tuesday . Generally expect conditions to remain sub-SCA. However, winds may near 25 knots and seas may approach 5 feet, especially across the northern waters by Tuesday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory looks marginal but may be needed for a portion of the day.

Tuesday night through Thursday . Southwest winds Tuesday night will become northwest for Wednesday and Thursday. Speeds will generally be around 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Seas generally around 2 to 4 feet.

Thursday night through Friday . Northwest winds around 10 to 20 knots with higher gusts possible. Seas may build and approach 5 feet on the eastern edges of the ocean zones late Thursday into Friday. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Meola Near Term . CMS/Johnson Short Term . Johnson Long Term . Meola Aviation . CMS/Meola Marine . Johnson/Meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 16 mi53 min 42°F 42°F1020.5 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 27 mi47 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 43°F 42°F1019.6 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 28 mi35 min S 1 35°F 1021 hPa32°F
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 34 mi47 min NW 1 G 1.9 1020.2 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 41 mi47 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 43°F 43°F1020 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 48 mi75 min S 3.9 G 5.8 44°F 46°F2 ft1016.1 hPa (-0.8)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 49 mi53 min SSE 5.1 G 5.1 42°F 44°F1020.1 hPa

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ23 mi71 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy37°F28°F73%1019.8 hPa
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ23 mi69 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds37°F35°F93%1020.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWWD

Wind History from WWD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7S8SW7SW7SW8S7SW8SW8S6SW9SW8SW8SW8W8W6W3S6SE5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN10N13N11N5N3N5N5NE5N4N5NE3Calm3W6W9SE10S4SE9S4SE6S6S3S6S5
2 days agoNW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Strathmere, Strathmere Bay, New Jersey
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Strathmere
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:32 AM EST     4.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:05 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:30 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:55 PM EST     3.40 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:20 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.544.13.52.71.810.40.20.411.82.63.23.43.12.41.710.50.20.30.81.7

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Thorofare, Ocean Drive bridge, New Jersey
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Middle Thorofare
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:32 AM EST     4.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:57 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:30 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:55 PM EST     3.40 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:12 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.544.13.52.61.710.40.20.41.11.92.63.23.43.12.41.610.50.20.30.91.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.