Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Riviera Beach, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A shallow layer of moisture beneath a subsidence inversion around 5000 feet was resulting in an expanding field of shallow cumulus as of mid morning. This likely persists today. Will adjust sky cover accordingly. Otherwise, a few showers may pop up across northern and especially northeastern MD this afternoon.
A few sprinkles are possible further south, but overall rain chances are low and most if not all of the time will be dry for much of the area.

Allegheny Mountain rain showers may continue at times as moisture off the Great Lakes in west/northwest flow persists on the backside of an upper trough.

Breezy conditions develop late morning through this evening, with winds gusting around 25-35 mph (up to 40 mph in the mountains).
Below normal temperatures once again today as highs reach the mid to upper 60s, with low 70s in Central VA to Southern MD to around the DC Metro. Quite chilly tonight by late May standards as lows drop to the 40s across the area.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The influence from the upper trough wanes this weekend as it slides just north/east from the area. The surface pressure gradient slackens over the Mid-Atlantic as the surface low retreats to Nova Scotia. Breezy conditions Saturday afternoon, though not as strong as previous days, with gusts around 20-25 mph. Dry conditions are expected from Saturday through at least Sunday afternoon.

A weak wave of low pressure moves just south of the area. This could push a weak frontal boundary northward into central VA, possibly bringing a few showers by Sunday evening. Temperatures this weekend start to increase a bit, though still remain below normal in the 60s to low 70s. Still quite chilly Saturday and Sunday nights as lows drop to the 40s, with upper 30s in parts of the Alleghenies.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure will weaken and move to the east on Monday to allow for a low pressure system to ride eastward along the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys toward the mid-Atlantic. This low will bring rain showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms to much of the region late Monday through early Wednesday. It is a little too early to tell how much rain may fall in this 36 hour period considering we may be looking at another two-part storm system...a surface front- running low pressure system and then a mid/upper level low that could trail the surface low. Either way, much of the region should get another Spring dosing of rainfall early to mid-week.

Temperatures will be 5 to 7 degrees below average early in the week, but should modify to near average or slightly above average by mid- week.

Perhaps, later Wednesday and into Thursday, the last of the possible complex low pressure system will make its way east and out of the area to give us a brief chance to dry out. Models are indicating that the drying out period may be short-lived midday Thursday into Thursday night, as yet another low pressure could make take aim to our mid-Atlantic region.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the weekend. Abundant mid-level clouds persist through this afternoon, then slowly start to dissipate this evening into tonight. Breezy conditions expected this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon. The strongest gusts will be today at 20-25 knots (PK WND ~30 kts possible), then around 20 to perhaps 25 knots for Saturday. Winds diminish and will be light on Sunday.

VFR conditions Monday. MVFR conditions may arrive at CHO Monday night, then at all terminals Tuesday through early Wednesday as rain showers and thunderstorms make a presence. Winds north becoming northeast and light Monday. Winds becoming southeast 5 to 15 knots Monday night through Tuesday night. Winds could be gusty in any thunderstorms.

MARINE
Periods of SCA winds are expected through this evening across all the waters, with winds gusting around 20-25 knots. A few showers could bring a brief period of gale-force winds to the upper Chesapeake Bay this evening given steep low-level lapse rates and mixing into a layer with 30-35 kts of wind. Winds diminish this evening into tonight, falling below SCA levels on the middle/upper tidal Potomac and other tributaries and bays along the Chesapeake. However, winds likely remain elevated along the main channel of the Chesapeake Bay through the night.

Another surge of winds, albeit at lower magnitude, unfolds Saturday morning through late Saturday afternoon, when northwest winds gust up to around 20 knots. Additional Small Craft Advisories will be needed to cover this threat. Winds finally diminish below SCA levels Saturday night and remain light Sunday into Sunday night.

No marine hazards Monday through Tuesday night. Winds north becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots Monday into Monday night. Winds becoming southeast 10 knots Tuesday and Tuesday night.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Offshore winds continue over the weekend that will lead to a gradual decline in water levels across the tidal Potomac and Chesapeake Bay. The expectation is for water levels to continue dropping through the weekend, with no tidal flooding expected.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>534- 537-539>541-543.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535- 536-538-542.