Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Palmer Lake, CO

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 311 AM MDT Thu May 22 2025

Ridging builds in overhead at the upper levels today, leading to another day of largely warm and dry conditions. High temperatures will be in the 70s-80s across our forecast area. Meanwhile, while gusty west winds will be present aloft and over the higher terrain, surface winds over the plain will be breezy and from the southeast.
This will bring in some slightly higher dewpoints to the plains and I-25 corridor, and the upsloping may give us a chance at some precipitation. Looking at the high-res model guidance for the afternoon, shear will be plentiful, 40-55 knots depending on which solution you look at. However, a lack of instability and a capped boundary layer will be limiting factors as far as storms go. Most of the HRRR members only place 200-500 J/kg of CAPE over the plains during the afternoon-evening. Even the Nam Nest, which is currently being the most aggressive with instability, has 1200 J/kg of CAPE, but even then only one or two storms manage to break the cap. If storms do manage to form, they would be very isolated in nature, forming over our eastern mountains before drifting onto the plains and quickly dissipating. Most likely impact concerns would be gusty outflow wind and lightning, though in the worst case a longer-lived storm, capable of tapping into available shear, could certainly drop some small hail. Even in the more optimistic guidance as far as convective chances go, the best chance for storms (which is still less than 20%) will be in the evening when the low-level jet kicks in, locally enhancing shear. The area will then dry out again overnight, with lows in the 40s-50s over the plains and 30s to low- 40s for the valleys.

For Friday, gusty west flow sets in over our region as a trough starts to dig over the western states. During the afternoon-evening, flow out east over Kansas will turn more southerly, with a dryline expected to set up somewhere near the CO/KS border. For our area, temperatures will be hot, with highs in the low-90s over parts of the plains and 70s-80s elsewhere. Meanwhile, Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated across the higher terrain and mountain valleys, though fuels are still too green for any needed highlights.
While the dryline out east may serve as a forcing mechanism for thunderstorm development in the later afternoon/early evening hours, current guidance has our plains either too dry or too capped to produce much of anything, with precipitation remaining east and north of our CWA Will have to see how the high-res guidance places the moisture gradient in the coming runs, but as of now our area should remain dry on Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 311 AM MDT Thu May 22 2025

Models remain in overall good agreement through the extended period. Guidance has come down a bit with precipitation chances Monday, and increased them for mid week.

Friday night and Saturday...an upper ridge axis will be shifting east across Colorado and into western Kansas Friday night. At the surface, a cold front will back westward across the Plains, with moisture returning. Soundings, mainly north of Highway 50, support light drizzle heading into Saturday morning, mainly across Kiowa County. How far back west saturation occurs will depend on how quickly the column moistens. But thinking areas of stratus, fog and light drizzle may all be possible by Saturday morning. Flow aloft will transitions to southwesterly on by Saturday late morning, with any drizzle dissipating. Energy embedded in the flow will likely help generate a few showers and thunderstorms across the Palmer Divide by late afternoon.
Meteorological critical fire weather conditions are expected to prevail across the San Luis Valley on Saturday due to low humidity values and gusty southwest winds. Highs on Saturday will climate into the 70s to near 80s for much of the region, with the coolest temperatures across Kiowa and Prowers Counties where cloud cover will likely hang on the longest. Showers and thunderstorms will likely shift southeast off the Palmer Divide and across the Plains Saturday night, clearing into Kansas by Sunday morning.

Sunday and Monday...a slow moving, baggy trough will shift east across Colorado for late in the weekend into early next week.
Low level flow will remain easterly on the Plains, helping to keep moisture pooled all the way up to the Eastern Mountains.
Dewpoints will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Daytime heating will help boost instability with around 1000 j/kg of SBCAPE along the Eastern Mountains into the I-25 corridor. Expect thunderstorms to develop by mid afternoon along the I-25 corridor and spread east Sunday evening, dissipating and clearing into Kansas overnight. 0-6 km shear is around 30 to 35 kts, which should be sufficient to produce one or two strong to possibly severe storms Sunday afternoon, especially over the Palmer Divide region. Large hail and strong wind gusts would be possible. By Monday, the upper trough will be moving across Colorado and exiting into the Central Plains. Moisture will remain pooled on the Plains, and weak instability should allow for another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop near the I-25 corridor and spread east into Monday evening.
Temperatures will be cooler Monday, with 60s and lower 70s, which will help limit instability and how strong thunderstorms may become. The primary focus areas of thunderstorm development will be the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa areas.

Tuesday through Thursday...dirty, upper ridging will spread across Colorado for mid week. Energy moving through the ridge, along with residual moisture, will help to produce daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Initial development will be across the higher terrain, and precipitation will drift off the mountains into the adjacent Plains before dissipating overnight. Temperatures will warm back into the 80s across the lower elevations, which will help boost instability, and a few of the daily thunderstorms could become strong to severe over the Palmer Divide, and Raton Mesa regions. Mozley

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 513 AM MDT Thu May 22 2025

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A few wind gusts out of the southwest near 25 kts are possible this afternoon.

KCOS...southeast winds are expected to increase this afternoon and prevail into the evening, with gusts near 28 kts. A stray thunderstorm will be possible this evening at the terminal which cold reduce VIS and CIGS briefly.

KPUB...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. East to southeast winds will increase this afternoon, with gusts near 25 kts possible. Mozley

PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.