Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lucerne, CA

DISCUSSION

Thursday through Wednesday
Temperatures continue on a warming trend today with high temperatures 5 to 10 above normal as ridging builds over the eastern Pacific before moving over Northern California this weekend. Warmer and drier conditions will continue through the weekend, with widespread Minor HeatRisk through Saturday, with areas of Moderate in the foothills. Moderate HeatRisk becomes more widespread Monday through Tuesday. Lingering troughing influence will lead to an increased Delta breeze today through Sunday, as a result there may be some marine stratus intrusion in the morning especially on Friday and Saturday.

Hottest days are expected to be Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the upper 90s to around 100. There is some uncertainty on whether locations will climb into the triple digits as the latest ensembles show the ridge axis further eastward over Nevada, but temperatures are still on track to be 10 to 20 degrees above normal. As a result, some places may see tied or broken daily high temperature records. The NBM indicates a 70 to 95% chance of 90 or greater throughout the entire Valley and Delta next Monday and Tuesday, with a 30 to 50% chance of 100 or more across portions of the central Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin. There may be some Delta breeze to give influenced areas a slight break for overnight lows. Minimum RH values trend lower through early next week as well, dropping into the 20s and teens by Monday.

Ensembles depict the ridge breaking down towards the middle of next week which will result in a gradual cooling trend Wednesday onward, however temperatures will still be 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Delta breeze influence is expected to pick back up mid week as well.




AVIATION
General VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Local MVFR/IFR ceilings are possible with marine stratus through the Delta and impacting Sacramento area TAF sites 12-18Z Friday.
Surface winds generally 12 kts or less except near the Delta, where winds to 15 kts and gusts to 20-25 kts.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.