Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Milford, WV

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 300 AM Sunday...

There are some areas of high clouds that we can expect across the area through the remainder of the overnight period that likely dissipate during the morning. Surface winds remain gusty from the southwest into at least the early afternoon hours, with 15-25 mph gusts common, and likely a bit stronger at times on the higher terrain. Winds then diminish some later this afternoon into the early overnight period as the pressure gradient slackens somewhat, though winds could pick up again a bit after midnight as the warm front of the approaching system passes over or just north of the CWA

Clouds from this next system will quickly spread across the CWA between sunset and midnight tonight, and between the clouds and the continuing S-SW'ly breezes, lows tonight will likely occur early in the night, possibly before midnight. Precip from this system looks to generally hold off until around midnight, when it may enter our KY and VA counties, and tease the Tug Fork valley. Rain quickly spreads east and northeast across the CWA between midnight and 6am Monday, and could be moderate to locally heavy.

Including what falls in the first part of the short-term period, The HRRR and most global ensemble guidance is painting a pretty broad mean total QPF between 0.50 and 0.75 inches across the area, and our QPF forecast roughly matches that thinking.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 240 AM Sunday...

Key Point: * Mild, rainy for Monday and Tuesday.

Rain accompanies the passage of a shortwave on Monday. While precipitation chances lessen following the departure of the shortwave, some showers could linger into the night. Rain chances increase once again for Tuesday due to the transport of warm, moist air into the area ahead of an upper trough and cold front.

Warm air advection will keep temperatures above normal, with daytime highs ranging from 50s to low 60s in the lowlands and 40s to 50s in the mountains. Meanwhile, lows for Monday night are projected to be in the upper 30s to 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 240 AM Sunday...

Key Points: * Much colder, with accumulating snow behind a front.
* Snow tapers off Wednesday night into Thursday.
* Drier to end the work week, unsettled again next weekend.

A cold front crosses the area Tuesday night and then exits to the east Wednesday morning; thereafter, moisture continues to be conducted into the area by a trough pivoting overhead. The arrival of much colder air behind the front will change rain over to snow by Wednesday evening. Currently, the highest probability (60-90%)
for over an inch of snow resides in the eastern half of the CWA, while best potential for over two inches of accumulation is more confined to the northeast mountains.

Snow gradually tapers off Wednesday night into Thursday as high pressure and dry air sneak in at the surface. High pressure facilitates a quieter end to the work week, then the pattern becomes unsettled once again for the weekend.

Temperatures will turn colder behind the front, likely remaining below normal through Thursday. Wind chills could also dip below zero over portions of the northeast mountains, amid breezy conditions, late Wednesday into Thursday. More moderate temperatures return late this week into the weekend.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 100 AM Sunday...

VFR conditions continue through the period, with some areas of high clouds through the remainder of the overnight period that likely dissipate Sunday morning. LLWS also continues across the area tonight, generally in the 40-45kt range, but should diminish by mid or late- morning as 850mb winds decrease.
Surface winds remain gusty into at least the early afternoon hours, with 15-20kt gusts common, and occasionally a bit higher for CKB, EKN, and perhaps PKB. Winds then diminish some later afternoon through the end of the TAF period as the pressure gradient slackens somewhat, though winds could pick up again a bit after 06z as the front approaches.

Precip from the next system looks to generally hold off until after 06z, but did put in a PROB30 group for HTS for the last few hours in case a few showers sneak in a bit early.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SUN 12/08/24 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions are possible late Sunday night into Monday in widespread areas of rain. IFR possible in upslope snow Wednesday into Thursday, more likely in the West Virginia mountains.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.