Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Milford, WV
December 9, 2023 4:22 AM EST (09:22 UTC)
Sunrise 7:27AM Sunset 4:59PM Moonrise 3:57AM Moonset 2:38PM
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 090905 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 405 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
SYNOPSIS
Clouds with early showers today, and a continued warming trend.
Strong system crosses tonight through early Monday, then high pressure for much of the next work week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 238 AM Saturday...
Key Points:
* Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this evening for threat of damaging winds.
* Locations being northeastern Kentucky, Tri-State Area, Mid- Ohio River Valley and southwestern West Virginia/Virginia.
* Marginal risk for excessive rainfall this evening.
* QPF amounts between 0.50"-1.00" across the lowlands, the higher end being observed farther west.
Occluding, nearly stacked low pressure center just north of Minnesota will continue to weaken some this morning, before cycling and gaining enough steam to progress eastward over the Great Lakes region of the CONUS by this evening. Cold front approaches tonight/Sunday morning behind a strong trough which will increase chances for T-storm activity.
Overcast mid-level cloud deck is currently overspreading the area from the southwest, with showers approaching from the same direction. Expecting these to start arriving in the next few hours with some light sprinkles and showers that will not amount to much with QPF less than a tenth of an inch. Drier air still resides aloft, so dew points are still in the 10s and 20s across the region and this may set up a dry slot across the lowlands which the HRRR is hinting at. LLJ overhead will mix some breezy afternoon wind gusts down to the surface with some gusts between 20 and 30 MPH possible along the higher elevations and further to the west along the Mid-Ohio River Valley.
PoPs increase from the west tonight just after the dinner hour ahead of the aforementioned system. There will be a chance for some embedded thunderstorms as temperatures will be warm today and the strong LLJ aloft will increase the chance for damaging winds at the surface. CAMs are showing 60-70kts of 0-6km bulk shear which is substantial, but not abnormal for this time of year with these stronger, amplified systems. CAPE is very meager at best with most of the forcing coming from lift associated with the trough.
All of that noted, SPC went with a marginal risk for severe weather(5% damaging wind threat) for northeastern Kentucky, Tri-State Area, Mid-Ohio River Valley and southwestern West Virginia/Virginia. Isolated instances of damaging wind gusts could be possible in some stronger showers/embedded thunderstorms tonight.
Rainfall is the secondary threat for tonight with a marginal risk of excessive rainfall from WPC en route for the same locations mentioned above. QPF Saturday night and Sunday morning will be close to an inch of accumulation across the Mid Ohio River Valley and southwestern West Virginia. Over or around a half an inch looks likely elsewhere across the lowlands with less being picked up across the northeastern mountains.
Certainly, a wet and windy Saturday night/Sunday morning is in the cards as this strong cold front approaches.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 405 AM Saturday...
Key Points:
* Large amplified system continues to impact the area Sunday into Monday
* Systems exits faster, with heaviest of the rain now exiting on Sunday
* Accumulating snow in and near the mountains Sunday night into Monday morning
* Strong gusty winds in the mountains Sunday night into Monday
* Accumulating snow tapers off in the mountains Monday morning
* High pressure builds in Monday night
A highly amplified but very wavy system chugs through the area Sunday. The wavy front, having reached the Ohio River by daybreak Sunday, crosses the remainder of the area by midday Sunday. Even with the rain showers either side of the wavy anafront, this confines the heaviest of the rain to areas in and near the mountains on Sunday.
PW values peak in the one to one and a quarter inch range on Sunday, slightly lower than previously progged. Additional rainfall amounts of one half to three quarters of an inch on Sunday approximately doubles weekend storm total rainfall, and could still lead to locally excessive rainfall. However, the more progressive nature of the system has reduced the excessive rainfall threat associated with it a bit.
With the cold front moving through Sunday morning, the chance for thunder associated with narrow elevated CAPE is limited to the morning hours in areas in and near the mountains.
It is with a second surge of cold advection behind the front that rain showers change to snow showers from west to east across the lowlands, while snow elevations lower in the mountains, late Sunday and Sunday night. Showers will become more widely scattered across the lowlands as they change from rain to snow Sunday night, while more persistent snow showers ensue in the mountains. This is likely to result in a few inches snow accumulation, the highest amounts across the highest terrain and higher windward slopes.
Snow accumulations out across the lowlands overnight Sunday night into early Monday morning will be limited by a quick loss of mid level moisture just as the column gets cold enough Sunday night.
Gusty winds could peak in the 30 to 35 mph range across the higher peaks ahead of the system Sunday, and the 35 to 45 mph across the higher elevations amid better mixing as the post-frontal inversion deepens Sunday night, allowing winds to align at least through h85.
Upslope snow showers in and near the mountains taper off Monday morning, as the weekend system pulls away, and weak high pressure builds in from the southwest as soon as Monday evening.
Will confine the mention of high water in the HWO to the northern and central mountains on Sunday, where the gusty wind and snow threats are mentioned for Sunday night into Monday,
Highs Sunday generally occur early, with temperatures nearly steady or slowly falling during the day. Temperatures will still be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the lowlands, and mid to upper 30s across the higher mountainous terrain, at the end of the daylight hours Sunday, before falling to or below freezing Sunday night, in a west to east and higher to lower elevation progression.
Monday morning lows will only be right around normal heading into mid December, but these freezing or lower values can lead to slick spots on roads, even for some lowland locations where snowfall accumulations are minimal, on account of freezing of leftover moisture.
Only a modest recovery in temperatures on Monday results in highs below normal, setting up modestly below normal lows Monday night amid mainly clear sky and light wind.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 405 AM Friday...
Key Points:
* Much quieter weather ensues for the balance of the work week
* Timing and track uncertainty as to the arrival of another potentially potent system next weekend
High pressure exits Tuesday, allowing a weak, moisture starved cold front to cross Tuesday night, with nothing more than some clouds into Wednesday. A larger, polar-Pacific high pressure system then takes over for the balance of the work week.
Models differ on timing and track of the next weather system, which could arrive as early as Saturday. Operational solutions point toward an El Nino nor-easter, which is a nor'easter sans very cold air. Its main impacts could be wind, rain and mountain snow if the system tracks close enough to the forecast area.
Central guidance reflects temperatures near normal much of the work week, before moderating to a bit above normal toward the end of the week, the midweek cold front barely putting a dent in these trends. The Canadian does show a slightly more amplified northern stream trough, with the surface high able to tap slightly colder air for Thursday. Forecast temperatures have trended a bit lower for Thursday, including lows Thursday morning modestly below normal now.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1233 AM Saturday...
Currently, all sites are VFR with GOES-16 obs showing OVC/BKN mid-level deck moving in from the SW. These ceilings will slowly overspread the area early this morning and linger into the afternoon. MVFR CIGs will encroach the western periphery by early afternoon, affecting HTS and PKB. Drier air aloft will allow for CIGs to gradually recede through the afternoon before a cold front approaches overnight.
S'rly winds will dominate the period and will be breezy later this morning and in the afternoon, sites could see gusts between 20kts and 25kts. Allowed LLWS (35-45kts at 2,000ft) in the TAFs at most sites, especially early this morning and later this evening as a LLJ will be moving in over head. SFC winds will be light and CRW, CKB, and EKN have already decoupled as well. Precipitation moves into the area by ~00Z with a cold front.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 12/09/23 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR restrictions possible in showers overnight tonight into Sunday night, and then in snow showers in and near the mountains Sunday night into Monday.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 405 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
SYNOPSIS
Clouds with early showers today, and a continued warming trend.
Strong system crosses tonight through early Monday, then high pressure for much of the next work week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 238 AM Saturday...
Key Points:
* Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this evening for threat of damaging winds.
* Locations being northeastern Kentucky, Tri-State Area, Mid- Ohio River Valley and southwestern West Virginia/Virginia.
* Marginal risk for excessive rainfall this evening.
* QPF amounts between 0.50"-1.00" across the lowlands, the higher end being observed farther west.
Occluding, nearly stacked low pressure center just north of Minnesota will continue to weaken some this morning, before cycling and gaining enough steam to progress eastward over the Great Lakes region of the CONUS by this evening. Cold front approaches tonight/Sunday morning behind a strong trough which will increase chances for T-storm activity.
Overcast mid-level cloud deck is currently overspreading the area from the southwest, with showers approaching from the same direction. Expecting these to start arriving in the next few hours with some light sprinkles and showers that will not amount to much with QPF less than a tenth of an inch. Drier air still resides aloft, so dew points are still in the 10s and 20s across the region and this may set up a dry slot across the lowlands which the HRRR is hinting at. LLJ overhead will mix some breezy afternoon wind gusts down to the surface with some gusts between 20 and 30 MPH possible along the higher elevations and further to the west along the Mid-Ohio River Valley.
PoPs increase from the west tonight just after the dinner hour ahead of the aforementioned system. There will be a chance for some embedded thunderstorms as temperatures will be warm today and the strong LLJ aloft will increase the chance for damaging winds at the surface. CAMs are showing 60-70kts of 0-6km bulk shear which is substantial, but not abnormal for this time of year with these stronger, amplified systems. CAPE is very meager at best with most of the forcing coming from lift associated with the trough.
All of that noted, SPC went with a marginal risk for severe weather(5% damaging wind threat) for northeastern Kentucky, Tri-State Area, Mid-Ohio River Valley and southwestern West Virginia/Virginia. Isolated instances of damaging wind gusts could be possible in some stronger showers/embedded thunderstorms tonight.
Rainfall is the secondary threat for tonight with a marginal risk of excessive rainfall from WPC en route for the same locations mentioned above. QPF Saturday night and Sunday morning will be close to an inch of accumulation across the Mid Ohio River Valley and southwestern West Virginia. Over or around a half an inch looks likely elsewhere across the lowlands with less being picked up across the northeastern mountains.
Certainly, a wet and windy Saturday night/Sunday morning is in the cards as this strong cold front approaches.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 405 AM Saturday...
Key Points:
* Large amplified system continues to impact the area Sunday into Monday
* Systems exits faster, with heaviest of the rain now exiting on Sunday
* Accumulating snow in and near the mountains Sunday night into Monday morning
* Strong gusty winds in the mountains Sunday night into Monday
* Accumulating snow tapers off in the mountains Monday morning
* High pressure builds in Monday night
A highly amplified but very wavy system chugs through the area Sunday. The wavy front, having reached the Ohio River by daybreak Sunday, crosses the remainder of the area by midday Sunday. Even with the rain showers either side of the wavy anafront, this confines the heaviest of the rain to areas in and near the mountains on Sunday.
PW values peak in the one to one and a quarter inch range on Sunday, slightly lower than previously progged. Additional rainfall amounts of one half to three quarters of an inch on Sunday approximately doubles weekend storm total rainfall, and could still lead to locally excessive rainfall. However, the more progressive nature of the system has reduced the excessive rainfall threat associated with it a bit.
With the cold front moving through Sunday morning, the chance for thunder associated with narrow elevated CAPE is limited to the morning hours in areas in and near the mountains.
It is with a second surge of cold advection behind the front that rain showers change to snow showers from west to east across the lowlands, while snow elevations lower in the mountains, late Sunday and Sunday night. Showers will become more widely scattered across the lowlands as they change from rain to snow Sunday night, while more persistent snow showers ensue in the mountains. This is likely to result in a few inches snow accumulation, the highest amounts across the highest terrain and higher windward slopes.
Snow accumulations out across the lowlands overnight Sunday night into early Monday morning will be limited by a quick loss of mid level moisture just as the column gets cold enough Sunday night.
Gusty winds could peak in the 30 to 35 mph range across the higher peaks ahead of the system Sunday, and the 35 to 45 mph across the higher elevations amid better mixing as the post-frontal inversion deepens Sunday night, allowing winds to align at least through h85.
Upslope snow showers in and near the mountains taper off Monday morning, as the weekend system pulls away, and weak high pressure builds in from the southwest as soon as Monday evening.
Will confine the mention of high water in the HWO to the northern and central mountains on Sunday, where the gusty wind and snow threats are mentioned for Sunday night into Monday,
Highs Sunday generally occur early, with temperatures nearly steady or slowly falling during the day. Temperatures will still be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the lowlands, and mid to upper 30s across the higher mountainous terrain, at the end of the daylight hours Sunday, before falling to or below freezing Sunday night, in a west to east and higher to lower elevation progression.
Monday morning lows will only be right around normal heading into mid December, but these freezing or lower values can lead to slick spots on roads, even for some lowland locations where snowfall accumulations are minimal, on account of freezing of leftover moisture.
Only a modest recovery in temperatures on Monday results in highs below normal, setting up modestly below normal lows Monday night amid mainly clear sky and light wind.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 405 AM Friday...
Key Points:
* Much quieter weather ensues for the balance of the work week
* Timing and track uncertainty as to the arrival of another potentially potent system next weekend
High pressure exits Tuesday, allowing a weak, moisture starved cold front to cross Tuesday night, with nothing more than some clouds into Wednesday. A larger, polar-Pacific high pressure system then takes over for the balance of the work week.
Models differ on timing and track of the next weather system, which could arrive as early as Saturday. Operational solutions point toward an El Nino nor-easter, which is a nor'easter sans very cold air. Its main impacts could be wind, rain and mountain snow if the system tracks close enough to the forecast area.
Central guidance reflects temperatures near normal much of the work week, before moderating to a bit above normal toward the end of the week, the midweek cold front barely putting a dent in these trends. The Canadian does show a slightly more amplified northern stream trough, with the surface high able to tap slightly colder air for Thursday. Forecast temperatures have trended a bit lower for Thursday, including lows Thursday morning modestly below normal now.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1233 AM Saturday...
Currently, all sites are VFR with GOES-16 obs showing OVC/BKN mid-level deck moving in from the SW. These ceilings will slowly overspread the area early this morning and linger into the afternoon. MVFR CIGs will encroach the western periphery by early afternoon, affecting HTS and PKB. Drier air aloft will allow for CIGs to gradually recede through the afternoon before a cold front approaches overnight.
S'rly winds will dominate the period and will be breezy later this morning and in the afternoon, sites could see gusts between 20kts and 25kts. Allowed LLWS (35-45kts at 2,000ft) in the TAFs at most sites, especially early this morning and later this evening as a LLJ will be moving in over head. SFC winds will be light and CRW, CKB, and EKN have already decoupled as well. Precipitation moves into the area by ~00Z with a cold front.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 12/09/23 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR restrictions possible in showers overnight tonight into Sunday night, and then in snow showers in and near the mountains Sunday night into Monday.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCKB NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA,WV | 15 sm | 29 min | calm | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 37°F | 28°F | 70% | 30.04 |
Wind History from CKB
(wind in knots)
Pittsburgh, PA,
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