Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Milford, WV

KEY MESSAGES
1.) Cold front with rain expected tonight, transitioning to periods of drizzle or a wintry mix.

2.) Low in the southern stream may provide soaking rain to parts of the area by Sunday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Generally quite warm today under increasing southwesterly flow.
Clouds increase this evening, as a cold front approaches from the west tonight, spreading rain across the area, changing to a light wintry mix late tonight/early Wednesday, including drizzle, freezing drizzle, and maybe even a brief period of light snow. Greatest threat area for a wintry mix looks to be across the northern mountain zones, with a non zero chance for freezing drizzle across parts of the lowlands tonight. Freezing precipitation across the lowlands will have to be closely monitored this evening/tonight for the possibility of winter headline issuance, but for now, went with just northern mountain zones in a winter weather advisory, where better chances/better coverage of wintry precipitation will be possible.

Light wintry precipitation will continue into Thursday, mainly in the form of snow, across the northern mountain zones from favorable moisture fetch, and weak passing shortwave on the back side of a low across the northeast. At this point, not anticipating headlines with this feature, however, do have some concerns that freezing drizzle could occur again. This will be for future shifts to reexamine and consider any additional headlines or concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Focus this weekend shifts to a southern stream low that will spread moisture northward into the area. There are differences in both timing and overall solution concerning the path and evolution of this low between the models, as is often the case this far out, and it's possible the bulk of moisture will stay well to our south, and that it will be quick hitting. Nevertheless, with recent snowpack/melting, and potential for anomalously high moisture content air to make its way into the region, saturated soils/runoff will be a concern during this period, and will need to be monitored for the potential of at least minor flooding issues.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions at present will gradually deteriorate tonight into a mixture of MVFR/IFR area-wide with low stratus courtesy of a crossing cold front, with perhaps even some LIFR in the mountains towards dawn. MVFR VSBY is possible with rain showers, perhaps even brief IFR. Rain showers will gradually diminish later tonight giving way to the potential for patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle, primarily across the higher terrain. Patchy fog is also possible across the higher terrain.

Gradual improvement to widespread MVFR will occur Wednesday morning, with VFR returning across the south/west by late afternoon, while persisting further north through the end of the TAF period (00Z Thursday). The potential for light wintry precip will continue across the northern mountains Wednesday morning, with another round possible beginning later in the afternoon.

Southwest winds ahead of the front will veer to northwest overnight, then back to west-northwest on Wednesday. Breezes of 15-20 kts will be possible at times, especially across the higher terrain, with higher gusts possible across the mountains.
Finally, LLWS is possible over the next few hours and has been coded into the TAFs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR restrictions associated with low stratus and/or rain showers may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE WED UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H M H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions are possible Wednesday night into Thursday with snow showers in/near the northern mountains.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM EST Wednesday for WVZ522-523-525-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.