Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Milford, WV

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 225 PM Saturday...

A cold front is currently traversing the forecast area this afternoon. Gusty west-southwest winds are coexisting with the newfound drier weather pattern with the entrance of this front.
Aloft, soundings show wind velocities reaching 50 to 60 knots at around 700MB. Momentum transfer appears shallow though, only reaching up to 850MB. Still, gusty winds between 15 and 25 mph are expected areawide this afternoon, with gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Locally higher gusts will likely occur at times across the mountains and foothills. Did expand the wind advisory across the higher elevation zones of Raleigh, Fayette, Nicholas, and Webster counties to cover expected gusts up to 50 and 55 mph.

This strong west-southwest flow will lead to drier dew points and slightly warmer temperatures than central guidance is suggesting. Did trend closer to 10th percentile dew points and 75th percentile temperatures, which paired with these gusty winds, will bring RH values into or near fire weather danger.
However, recent rainfall has left fuel stick moistures in good standing, mitigating fire weather concerns. High temperatures this afternoon will be reached early this afternoon due to the frontal passage. Lowlands can expect temperatures in the middle 70s to lower 80s, while the mountains will stay in the 60s and 70s.

Winds will lessen this evening, becoming light overnight with a more due westerly wind shift. Lows will be cooler with the lowlands dropping back into the 50s, while the mountains could see temperatures in the mid to upper 40s and lower 50s.

Sunday will remain dry under high pressure's influence with westerly flow picking up again by the afternoon, though not expected to be the same magnitude as today. High temperatures will be similar to today's, though possibly a few degrees cooler.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 PM Saturday...

Lingering surface high pressure will bring a quiet start to the short term period on Sunday night amid mostly clear skies and light winds, resulting in a cool overnight with some valley fog development anticipated. A warm front then gradually approaches the region from the southwest on Monday, while a weak upper wave traverses the northern periphery of a low amplitude ridge across the region, bringing increasing cloud cover, and the potential for ISO showers/storms, mainly south/west. The chance for showers/storms will increase late Monday night and on Tuesday as the warm front attempts to work into the CWA, although how far north it makes it initially is low confidence given a spread in the guidance. Likely to categorical PoPs are progged on Tuesday and Tuesday night as the warm front and (eventually) associated surface low moves into the region.

Near to slightly below normal high temperatures are progged for Monday/Tuesday, with low/mid 70s on Monday for the lowlands, while mid 60s to mid 70s on Tuesday. Some significant fluctuations in temperatures will likely occur on Tuesday depending on how far north the warm front gets.

Finally, the threat for isolated high water issues cannot be ruled out late Tuesday into Tuesday night, along with the potential for some strong thunderstorms. Confidence in either is low, however, given decent mixing/drying days today/Sunday (in terms of hydro issues), along with much uncertainty in terms of warm front position (in terms of severe potential).

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 300 PM Saturday...

Surface low pressure will continue to slowly cross the region on Wednesday and Wednesday night, while an upper trough begins to build into the area, amplifying as it does so. This results in a wet Wednesday and Wednesday night with periods of showers/storms, with activity becoming more ISO/SCT in nature on Thursday/Friday (and more so diurnally driven) as the upper trough shifts eastward. Isolated hydro issues will again be possible Wednesday into early Thursday. Slightly below normal temperatures on Wednesday will trend towards 10-15 degrees below normal on Thursday/Friday, with Thursday progged to be the chillest day of the work week.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 800 PM Saturday...

A few isolated light showers are possible in/near the northern mountains into early tonight, but otherwise dry weather is expected throughout this TAF period (until 00Z Monday). SCT-BKN stratocu is expected tonight, with a chance for brief MVFR CIGs in/near the mountains at times, but overall mainly VFR is expected. This trend continues on Sunday, with brief MVFR stratocu possible once again through late morning, potentially impacting CKB/EKN, with a low probability at PKB.

West-southwest flow tonight will gradually veer to WNW during the day on Sunday. Gusty winds up to 20-30 kts at present will lessen significantly overnight in most areas, but remain breezy across the mountains. Wind gusts of 15-25 kts develop during the day on Sunday area-wide, with gusts of 25-35 kts possible in the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will likely fluctuate at times this evening and during the day on Sunday. LLWS could occur at EKN if surface winds diminish there more than expected.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SUN 05/18/25 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions in heavy rain and thunderstorms could develop by late Tuesday and continue at times into Thursday.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ516-518-520-522-523- 526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.