Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Milford, WV

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Cold front with rain expected tonight, transitioning to periods of drizzle or a wintry mix.

2.) Low in the southern stream may provide soaking rain to parts of the area by Sunday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Generally quite warm today under increasing southwesterly flow.
Clouds increase this evening, as a cold front approaches from the west tonight, spreading rain across the area, changing to a light wintry mix late tonight/early Wednesday, including drizzle, freezing drizzle, and maybe even a brief period of light snow. Greatest threat area for a wintry mix looks to be across the northern mountain zones, with a non zero chance for freezing drizzle across parts of the lowlands tonight. Freezing precipitation across the lowlands will have to be closely monitored this evening/tonight for the possibility of winter headline issuance, but for now, went with just northern mountain zones in a winter weather advisory, where better chances/better coverage of wintry precipitation will be possible.

Light wintry precipitation will continue into Thursday, mainly in the form of snow, across the northern mountain zones from favorable moisture fetch, and weak passing shortwave on the back side of a low across the northeast. At this point, not anticipating headlines with this feature, however, do have some concerns that freezing drizzle could occur again. This will be for future shifts to reexamine and consider any additional headlines or concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Focus this weekend shifts to a southern stream low that will spread moisture northward into the area. There are differences in both timing and overall solution concerning the path and evolution of this low between the models, as is often the case this far out, and it's possible the bulk of moisture will stay well to our south, and that it will be quick hitting. Nevertheless, with recent snowpack/melting, and potential for anomalously high moisture content air to make its way into the region, saturated soils/runoff will be a concern during this period, and will need to be monitored for the potential of at least minor flooding issues.

AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions through 00Z when widespread MVFR ceilings will overspread the area along with -RA, with localized/areas of IFR ceilings possible 03Z through 12Z. Gradual improvement to widespread MVFR after 12-15Z Wednesday, although parts of the mountains may continue to have areas of IFR.

In addition, gusty southwesterly winds with occasional gusts in the teens across the lowlands and 20s across the higher terrain, will generally become light tonight, but become gusty again after 15Z Wednesday.

With surface winds decreasing in intensity overnight, a period of LLWS is expected, generally 03Z through 09Z, and have included this in the TAFs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR CIGs may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H H M M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible Wednesday night in -shsn and low stratus across the northern mountains.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM EST Wednesday for WVZ522-523-525-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.