Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilkesville, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) High pressure provides dry conditions through at least Tuesday.

2) Low pressure system ushers in colder weather and first flakes of the season.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Freezing conditions are expected across much of the CWA this morning, as sky cover gradually clears, and winds remain light to calm, as high pressure nudges into the area from the west. This will set up a period of dry conditions through at least early next week, along with a gradual warming trend, particularly by Tuesday as southerly flow increases out ahead of an approaching system.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

By Wednesday into Thursday, a potent upper level trough and associated cold front will approach the area. Precipitation will start out as rain across the area, and could be moderate in intensity at times. Precipitation will gradually transition over to snow, or a rain snow mix at times, as a deep upper trough forms across the eastern U.S., ushering in much colder and blustery conditions. At least minor accumulations are possible across the mountains, as a prolonged period of northwesterly upslope flow takes hold.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Area of MVFR ceilings will continue to slowly erode from west to east through 12-14Z Sunday. Some patchy MVFR/IFR valley fog is possible for a period this morning as sky cover clears.
Widespread VFR conditions with light surface winds taking hold from 14Z onward, although occasional gusts in the teens are possible after 16Z-23Z area wide.

After 00Z, a disturbance crossing to the north of the area will provide for an increase in cloud cover and winds across the north and east, particularly across parts of the northern mountains, with occasional gusts 20-35 kts. Ceilings should remain VFR. A period of LLWS is possible at site KEKN generally after 02Z depending on how light winds are at the surface.

Widespread fog is not anticipated tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SUN 11/08/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EST 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR anticipated.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ005-006- 013>015-024>027-033-034.
OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ087.
KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ003-004.