Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilkesville, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 315 AM Wednesday...

Any lingering snow showers have pretty much ended for lower elevations, but there is likely still some light snow ongoing in and around the mountains, and that may persist until around sunrise. Indeed, webcams show it is still snowing and blowing up at Snowshoe, so it is safe to assume mountain snow showers persist for much of the northern and central mountains.
Intermittent snow showers are noted near the mountains, evinced by still having periods of light snow reported on the Elkins ASOS, but that should wind down sooner than later.

It's also quite cold, with temps currently ranging from around zero on the highest northern ridges to mid-single digits to mid- teens for most lower elevations. Lows should drop into the single digits above zero for almost all lower elevations, excepting perhaps our southern most few counties. With winds continuing in the higher terrain, we maintain the Extreme Cold Warning for our northern mountains, with Cold Weather Advisory for the surrounding areas and the central mountains down to eastern Raleigh. Tonight will be very cold again, with lows ranging from single digits above zero to mid-teens. Winds will be lighter, but likely still breezy enough to push wind chills below the -10F threshold in our northern mountains, so another Cold Weather Advisory will be issued for those zones.

Looking forward, we should have mostly sunny skies across the southern part of the CWA for most of today into this evening.
Clouds may linger over and just west of the mountains most of the period, but some breaks are possible today. Initially sunny skies over the northern part of the CWA will cloud over later this morning into the afternoon as a weak passing disturbance crosses the area. Indeed, some models hint at some light snow showers being possible, mainly in the mountains - for now, we have slight chance POPs just hugging the border with PBZ, but did include mention of flurries further west and south just in case.

Just as that weak wavelet moves out, the next bigger system will move in from the west. Clouds look to spread over the area between midnight and sunrise on Thursday, but snow likely will not start to spread into the CWA from the north and northwest until late night, and possibly not until around sunrise.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM Wednesday...

A clipper system will be passing through the area early in the period, resulting in widespread snow showers across the entire area. Light accumulations of around an inch or so is possible across the lowlands with higher totals possible in the mountain counties and higher elevations, especially since snow is expected to persist across the mountains through at least late Thursday night into early Friday.

Given the expected snowfall across the higher elevations, have opted to issue a Winter Storm Watch for much of the northeast WV mountains westward into the Barbour/Upshur/Webster/Nicholas counties area, where totals will be somewhat lower than in the mountains but will likely reach at least near criteria. The Winter Storm Watch is in effect from 12Z Thursday until 12Z Friday.

Temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be on the warmer side during the day with high's in the low to mid 30's across the lowlands and high teens to low 20's across the mountains for Thursday with high temperatures Friday erupting into the low 40's for portions of lowlands, especially near the KY/WV/OH tri-state area and high temperatures in the high 20's across the mountains.
Low temperatures Thursday night will still be rather cold, with low's in the low to mid 20's across the lowlands and low to mid teens across the mountains, with some single digit lows possible.
Low temperatures Friday night will be slightly warmer with the lowlands reaching upper 20's/low 30's and the mountains reaching high teens/low 20's.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 240 AM Wednesday...

A much more potent system is expected to slide across the area sometime Saturday producing widespread precipitation chances through Saturday night into Sunday morning. Expecting most of this to be rain given the temperatures expected to be well above freezing Saturday into the 40's across much of the area, outside of temperatures near or just above freezing in the mountains. As this system approaches, there is also the potential for a brief period of freezing rain early Saturday morning, but still uncertain on this given how brief we will have been below freezing prior to the event, but none the less this will need to be monitored. Any frozen precipitation should quickly transition to rain by 12Z Saturday morning. Rain should then begin to transition to snow on the backside of this system Saturday night into Sunday with the potential for some additional light accumulations, but this will need to continue to be monitored, especially for the higher elevations.

Chances for snow showers will persist across the higher elevations and even portions of the lowlands into Monday night under cold air advection and weak cyclonic low level flow with additional light accumulations possible in the mountains.

Quite an impressive Arctic high will then build into the area to begin the new week Monday and onward with H5 dropping to the 516-522 or so range across northern and northwest portions of our area at the peak of the intrusion. This will lead to very cold high temperatures for at least Monday and Tuesday, with most of the area struggling to reach the high teens each day. Tuesday appears to be the coldest of the two days, with high temperatures in the low to mid teens across much of the lowlands (with portions of SE OH likely stuck in the single digits) and single digits to below zero across the mountains. This will likely result in the need for wind chill headlines in the future so trends will continue to be monitored.

AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1240 AM Wednesday...

Mainly VFR conditions are noted across the area, but the northeastern quadrant of the CWA does maintain some MVFR cloud decks and snow showers. Indeed, a briefly heavy snow shower is delivering locally LIFR conditions to EKN at TAF issuance time, and they may well continue to see a few snow showers over the first few hours of the TAF period. CKB has some MVFR clouds, but these are likely to be breaking up to a more scattered deck soon.

Our southern sites should be VFR through pretty much the whole TAF period. CKB and EKN are forecast to improve to VFR later tonight, but they and PKB are then expected to drop back to MVFR as some FL025 clouds slide across the northern third of the CWA later this morning into the afternoon. Initially gusty winds have calmed down for most part except at BKW up on the higher terrain. However, even there winds should become less gusty through the course of the night, with gentle breezes then expected on Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Snow showers could impact EKN a few hours longer than the current forecast shows.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE WED 01/15/25 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions are likely Thursday and Thursday night with any snow showers moving across the area.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for WVZ039-040-519>523-525-526.
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ516- 518-520-522-524-525.
Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ523- 526.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Thursday for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.