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FXUS61 KRLX 071133 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 633 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
Upslope snow continues to taper off, then high pressure brings dry/milder weather today through Saturday. Next system arrives Saturday night and Sunday. Drier to start next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 525 AM Thursday...

Forecast remains on track updated temperatures and dew points using a blend of short-range, hi-res guidance. Temperatures are trending a few degrees warmer with mostly clear skies being predicted and high pressure nudging in.

As of 230 AM Thursday...

Satellite obs showing low clouds over the western slopes of the Allegheny Mountains with some mid and high level clouds, courtesy of Lake Michigan, straddling the mid section of the CWA. This upslope should stay dry the rest of the morning, barring an isolated snow shower or two in the northeastern mountains. Thinking that most of the precipitation is done though, still left in slight chance PoPs for areas above 4,000 feet to cover the remote chance.

Temperatures this morning will be cold, though cloud cover should moderate temperatures to around what guidance is suggesting. Looking at low 30s across the lowlands, 20s in the mountains, and upper teens at elevations above 4,000 feet.

Ridge of high pressure over the Deep South will move into our area today to keep us dry and mild into Friday. Warming trend starts today as a rather dry warm front pushes up from the south: High temperatures across the lowlands will reach the lower to mid 50s. Upper 30s to the low 50s in the mountains

Winds will primarily be out of the SW and will be breezy at times(12-20MPH) this afternoon. Higher gusts are possible along the higher ridge tops in the mountains.

Dew points will be a bit dry, and models show RHs dropping down in the upper 30s and lower 40s across the southern coalfields this afternoon. Fire weather is not a concern though after the previous day's precipitation. Fuel moistures look to be in good standing as well. Will continue to monitor for any changes in this.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 203 AM Thursday...

Weather pattern continues dry and mild with a departing ridge and surface high pressure still influencing the weather conditions Friday and for the most part of Saturday.

A strengthening low pressure system will track northeast from the central plains into the Great Lakes region Friday night and Saturday. An associated cold front will approach from the west, tightening the pressure gradient to produce strong gusty winds Saturday and as it crosses Sunday. Strong moisture and WAA under deep southwest flow will increase chances for post frontal showers Saturday, becoming likely and accompanied by few thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front Saturday night and Sunday. These winds will allow for afternoon temperatures to climb into the mid 60s across the lowlands on Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 202 AM Thursday...

The low pressure and cold front exit northeast during the day Sunday with lingering rain shower transitioning into light snow showers under northwest to north flow Sunday night. Little to none snow accumulations can be expected across the lowlands, while upslope snow may continue over the northeast mountains to produce a couple of inches before ending Monday afternoon.

Cooler temperatures behind the front Sunday will probably bring an non-diurnal temperature trend, keeping temperatures in the mid 50s lowlands, ranging into the mid 40s higher elevations. Much colder airmass moves bringing sub-freezing temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning.

Finally, high pressure builds Monday and Tuesday with drier weather and near seasonal temperatures for early/mid-December.

AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 622 AM Thursday...

Most terminals are reporting VFR, except for CKB and EKN which are reporting MVFR CIGs with low OVC. Current satellite obs shows SCT clouds moving across the region with some lower level clouds across the northern lowlands and up against the mountains.

All sites will be VFR today by ~15-16Z, with FEW to SCT mid and high level clouds across the sky later this morning. This afternoon, expecting mostly SKC or FEW high level clouds. Winds will be predominately out of the SW and will be breezy at times, with gusts between 15kts and 25kts later this morning and into the afternoon.

Models are predicting LLWS this evening. Analysis of skew-T plots does show winds between 35-50 kts around 2,000 feet and winds at the surface decoupling this evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Improvement to VFR may vary at EKN this morning. Breezy surface gusts continue into the evening when not forecasted.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are anticipated at this time.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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