Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Calpella, CA

DISCUSSION
An upper level trough remains circulating in the NE Pacific off the coast of British Columbia, keeping weak high pressure in place off the coast of central California. High temperatures are forecast to trend upwards again today, with 80s forecast for most interior valleys and possibly low 90s in the warmest. Winds ease today as the trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. Some high-resolution models are showing light reflectivity returns, but precipitation chances still remain low as the lower levels remain dry. Thunder potential in the interior also remains low as instability looks meager.

High pressure builds back in Monday, returning the warming trend to the interior. NBM is showing 60-90% probabilities for 90s in the warmest interior valleys by Wednesday. Long-range model clusters are starting to coalesce around a trough digging into our area by Friday. Precipitation chances have trended upward,with around a 40% chance for measurable precipitation in Del Norte Friday and Saturday. Much lower probabilities are forecast south of Del Norte.
Elsewhere, high temperatures in the interior trend downward. How far south the trough will dip is the main uncertainty, and will impact both the precipitation chances and how dramatic the cooling trend will be Friday into the weekend. A few ensemble members do have this progressing as an inside slider type of system, which are typically warmer, drier, and windier. This could be a fire weather concern, but it appears to be trending in the wetter direction.



AVIATION
15/06Z TAFs...Gusty northerlies diminishing as of 4z for KCEC with fight conditions remaining VFR/MVFR through the TAF period. An approaching shortwave could support these flight conditions with a bit of clearing or lift. KACV is in similar conditions albeit less gusty and the probability of <2000ft ceilings at 62% versus 25% for KCEC at 11z-13Z which will be the next expected time for cloud cover for the coastal terminals. Sunday evening around 6z could likely be LIFR with low ceilings and high probability for cloud cover which aligns time wise with what other models are showing as unsettled conditions from a series of weak shortwaves. Expect stratus to be minimally intrusive for flight ops tonight. /EYS



MARINE
Strong to near gale force gusts are forecast to continue through the weekend, with the strongest winds across the outer waters and southern inner waters. Locally gale force gusts downwind of Cape Mendocino and Point Saint George. The sea state will be largely dominated by steep short period wind waves. A small southerly long period swell around 2-3 feet at 19 to 20 seconds will arrive late Saturday night. Winds are forecast to gradually decrease and retreat to the southern waters early next week.



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ450-455- 470-475.