Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Belleplain, NJ

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belleplain, NJ

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Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA

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FXUS61 KPHI 050717 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 317 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
A closed low will linger across the Northeast through this week.
Surface high pressure will generally build to our northwest across the Great Lakes through Tuesday. A cold front will push through the area on Tuesday bringing a chance for showers and storms across the region. Low pressure will linger near Nova Scotia through Friday, then high pressure will slide offshore into the weekend. Another cold front may cross the region on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The early morning water vapor imagery shows a well defined closed low centered just south of Cape Cod. This closed low will drift to the east and north some today into tonight. Surface low pressure tied to this closed low will slowly work its way northward to the Nova Scotia Canada area into tonight. In addition, another upper- level trough is sliding south from near the Hudson Bay Canada area and this should merge with the New England closed low. Our weather will continue to be dominated by the closed low centered near the southeastern New England coast.

Our region will remain within the cyclonic flow aloft in association with the closed low. Some additional shortwave energy is forecast to dive southward and across our area within the northerly flow on the western side of the closed low. This shortwave energy and cooler air aloft will combine with a warming boundary layer to once again produce an inverted-V signature in the soundings. The model forecast soundings look similar to yesterday with a moist layer developing at the top of the well mixed boundary layer, therefore we are expecting a decent amount of stratocumulus to develop during the course of the day. The most coverage of this should be from about the Philadelphia metro northward. In addition, high level clouds are expected to slide southward across the area. No shower activity is expected as the air mass remains dry enough, and the main moisture fetch is with the closed low and directed into New England. A northwesterly surface flow today should boost our temperatures a bit compared to yesterday, although cloud cover development may temper this some.
The winds should diminish enough this afternoon where a sea breeze develops, however before this occurs even the coastal areas should have temperatures getting into the 70s. How far inland the sea breeze gets is more uncertain as it will be battling a northwesterly wind component inland.

The Quebec Canada wildfires should send a round of smoke our way late today and especially tonight. The RAP vertically integrated smoke shows higher concentrations overspreading our area late today and tonight, however the near-surface area is much more reduced. As a result, the smoke looks to be well aloft as it arrives and should make for a hazy sky once again. No surface visibility restrictions are anticipated at this time, therefore held off on including haze/smoke in the forecast.

As we go through tonight, we continue to remain on the western side of the closed low with more shortwave energy sliding southward. A cold front is forecast to be approaching the area from the north- northwest late tonight. Some guidance suggests just enough lift accompanies the aforementioned shortwaves later tonight that perhaps a few showers make it to our northern zones. Any showers look to be more isolated, therefore maintained slight chance PoPs (20 percent).
Cloud cover should dissipate from the south, however the stratocumulus field should flatten and lift in the evening although some of this may linger as a mid level deck into the overnight hours especially across the northern areas. Temperatures are forecast to drop back to the low to mid 50s, although some upper 40s possible in the southern Poconos to far northwestern New Jersey and the New Jersey pine barrens.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A closed upper low associated with the eastern periphery of the omega block over the CONUS will remain to our northeast Tuesday through Wednesday. A shortwave trough will pivot through the area late Tuesday as the low retrogrades back to the west toward Maine.
This will push a cold front slowly through our area on Tuesday. High pressure will then build into the Great Lakes through Wednesday.

While moisture will be limited, meager diurnal instability is expected to develop on Tuesday in the vicinity of the front. Some isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms should result, especially later in the day as instability and synoptic forcing maximize. Some gusty winds and small hail may be possible with this activity, but no severe weather is anticipated at this time. Some additional diurnal instability showers may develop near/north of I-78 on Wednesday due to the cooling mid-levels, but chances will remain low for this.

Aside from the showers, smoke and haze from wildfires in Canada will spread across the skies Tuesday and Wednesday. Current indications are that this should remain elevated in the form of a haze and smokey sky, although some surface haze can't be ruled out. Given the uncertainty, we've opted not to include haze in the forecast at this time.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be fairly breezy for this time of year.
Expect northwest winds around 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph possible at times. Winds should remain elevated around 5-10 mph even at night given the gradient in place. Highs will range from the mid 70s to low 80s, though slightly cooler on Wednesday in the wake of the front. Lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
On Thursday, a potent shortwave will slide south through the Great Lakes and quickly reach into the Tennessee Valley by afternoon.
Deterministic guidance wants to develop a surface low off the coast of the Carolinas in response with generally good ensemble support, though with temporal and spatial differences at this point.
Meanwhile, a weak surface trough will rotate around the still present low to our northeast and bring a renewed chance for showers across our region in the afternoon. This trough may have a bit more moisture and upper support to work with, so favored the slightly higher NBM PoPs (30-40%). The extent of cloud cover and showers may impact high temperatures, but thinking mid to upper 70s areawide.

Friday, the closed low finally looks to begin to pull away, but it will still leave some troughiness/shortwaves behind as it exits.
Surface high pressure will continue to build further south and east, but a few showers again look possible (20% chance) as upper energy rotates through. The sea breeze could be a focus for convergence enough for CI. The aforementioned surface low off the coast of the Carolinas looks to slide far enough to our south to not be impactful, but we will have to wait for more agreement across the suite of guidance over the coming days. Highs through the end of the week are forecast in the mid-upper 70s, right around or just below climatology.

Into the weekend, ensemble 500 mb heights rise as do thicknesses with good agreement in the break down of the blocking pattern and departure of the closed low, so a warmup is possible with high pressure sliding closer overhead. The warmer day may be Sunday as flow turns southwesterly. An approaching cold front could also bring some more widespread showers and storms to the region.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. A scattered/broken cloud coverage between about 5000- 8000 feet, especially this afternoon. Light and variable winds becoming northwest 8-12 knots then west-northwest later in the afternoon. The winds at KACY should become southwesterly later in the afternoon. Some local gusts of 15-20 knots possible during the late morning to mid afternoon. Low confidence if a sea breeze fully makes it to KACY toward late afternoon.

Tonight...VFR with clouds thinning out. Northwest to west-northwest winds (southwest at KACY) diminishing to around 5 knots early, then becoming mostly light and variable. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Predominantly VFR, but some passing showers or a thunderstorm may bring temporary sub-VFR restrictions. Wind becoming northwesterly 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots behind a cold front. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday-Friday...Prevailing VFR, though the low chance (20%) of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon may bring temporary sub-VFR restrictions. Northwesterly wind 10-15 knots relaxing to 5-10 knots at night. Low confidence in coverage of precipitation, high confidence in overall prevailing conditions.

MARINE
The conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. Northwest winds will become west to southerly this afternoon into this evening, then west to northwest late tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday-Friday...No marine headlines expected. Northwesterly wind around 10 knots may become southerly for a time with developing afternoon sea breezes mainly on Thursday and Friday. Seas 2-3 feet.

Rip Currents...

Today...There is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the New Jersey and Delaware beaches. North to northwest winds will become southwesterly in the afternoon around 10 knots. Breaking waves will be around 2-3 feet in the surf zone with a medium 7-8 second period easterly swell. Given the modest easterly swell, opted to maintain the moderate risk for today.

Tuesday...There is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the New Jersey and Delaware beaches. Northwest winds will become west to southwesterly in the afternoon around 15 knots.
Breaking waves will be around 2-3 feet in the surf zone with a medium 7-8 second period easterly swell. Given the stronger westerly winds and lessening east swell, opted to go with a low risk for Tuesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Onshore flow continues, but we are expecting a shift to offshore later today. The threat for widespread minor coastal/tidal flooding continues with the high tide early this morning for the tidal Delaware River and the high tide Monday morning on portions of the upper eastern shore of the Chesapeake Bay. Some lingering minor flooding along the Little Assawoman Bay and Barnegat Bay prompted an extension of the Advisory for Sussex DE and Ocean NJ Counties until 5 AM.

The shift to off shore flow may come to late today to have much impact for the high tide this evening/night. Similar astronomical high tides again today could mean yet another round of minor coastal flooding in spots with tonight's high tide, though confidence is lower on this occurrence. We will continue to monitor the latest trends in guidance and observations and make forecast adjustments as necessary.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for NJZ020-026.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for DEZ003-004.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MDZ015- 019-020.
MARINE...None.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Cape May, NJ

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Link to 5 minute data for KMIV

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Wind History from MIV (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for East Creek, Route 47 bridge, Delaware Bay, New Jersey

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