Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tolchester, MD
December 7, 2023 10:06 PM EST (03:06 UTC)
Sunrise 7:10AM Sunset 4:43PM Moonrise 1:36AM Moonset 1:35PM
ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 934 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Rest of tonight..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers.
Sun night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft. Showers.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Rest of tonight..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers.
Sun night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft. Showers.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 934 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure will build across the southeast states through Saturday. A strong frontal system will impact the region on Sunday. High pressure will return Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed starting Saturday night, and are likely Sunday into Monday. Gales are possible Sunday into Monday, as well.
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure will build across the southeast states through Saturday. A strong frontal system will impact the region on Sunday. High pressure will return Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed starting Saturday night, and are likely Sunday into Monday. Gales are possible Sunday into Monday, as well.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 080246 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 946 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
The center of high pressure will slide to our south through Saturday. A warm front lifts across our region Saturday night into Sunday, followed by a potent cold front sweeping through Sunday night. High pressure builds in later Monday and continues into the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 930 PM, moisture remains trapped under a warm air advection induced inversion which was probably enhanced some from the round of light precipitation during the day (keeping the boundary layer colder). Given the cloud cover the temperatures have nearly held steady from an earlier drop since sunset. Satellite imagery trends do show some breaks trying to occurring, with even thicker cloud cover to our west shrinking from the west. As a result, still expect the lower cloud cover to break-up with time overnight however the timing of this is less certain. This will also have some impact on how cold it ends up getting prior to sunrise. Given the observations at this time, held onto a cloudy/mostly cloudy sky longer. It will be chilly tonight with temperatures eventually dropping into the mid/upper 20s to low 30s.
For Friday, heights continue to rise as a ridge axis approaches the Mid-Atlantic. High pressure to the south will gradually slide offshore, fostering in a light south to southeast flow.
This will result in warming and with large scale subsidence with the approaching ridge, skies will be mostly sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s/low 50s, with some spots in Delmarva getting into the mid 50s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Bottom Line...A potent cold front undergoing significant frontogenesis is forecast to impact the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Winds of 25-30 mph with frequent gusts of 35-40 mph are expected; the coastal areas certainly seeing even higher than this. Widespread rainfall, heavy at times, with isolated thunder is expected across the region. Localized flooding is certain for poor drainage and perhaps urban areas, more widespread flooding may be in the cards. A prolonged period of strong onshore flow near the proximity of a new moon will lead to coastal flooding concerns.
The short term will start off Friday night with the region feeling the influence of surface high pressure to our southeast. With time, this surface high pressure will migrate more eastward ahead of an approaching developing surface low pressure system and set of fronts to our southwest. While high pressure influence will still be felt through Saturday, the low pressure and set of fronts will continue to draw near. By the time frame of Saturday night into Sunday morning, the warm front will likely swing through our region while the rather potent cold front continues to approach.
The cold front will look to cross through during Sunday night, bringing a handful of impacts to the region.
Friday night...Conditions are expected to be rather quiet with high pressure influence. Light S/SE flow (5 mph or less) to start the period will likely become light and variable, if not calm, for many areas by the second half of the period. Given the first half of the period is forecast to see mainly clear skies and light flow before more cloud cover builds in, efficient radiational cooling will look to take hold for the first half, and perhaps into the second half, of the period.
This may lead to some patchy fog development across the region.
Saturday...Quiet conditions overall are expected with the region still feeling the influence of surface high pressure. Fog from the overnight period may linger some into the morning.
Otherwise, a mostly cloudy day with continued warm air and moisture advection occurring.
Saturday night...Warm front approaches closer and begins to cross through. Continued warm air and moisture advection, light S/SSE flow for much of the period should allow for widespread fog to develop across the region. Some areas may even see fog development before midnight. Dense fog on the marine zones during the period is possible given the overall pattern.
Otherwise, PoPs start to increase across the region during the second half of the period.
Sunday morning...Warm front continues trek through the region if it hasn't done so beforehand. Increasing pressure gradient begins to be noticed. Potent cold front approaches closer to the region and begins to bring widespread precipitation and gusty winds to the region. Model guidance indicates this front will begin to experience decent frontogenesis during this time frame. With time, pressure gradient will tighten, PoPs will increase from the west.
Sunday afternoon/Sunday night...The most impactful time frame of the event. Model guidance indicates approaching potent cold front will begin to experience significant frontogenesis.
Strong pressure gradient over the region resulting in sustained winds of 25-30 mph with frequent gusts of 35-40 mph. Up to 50 mph gusts over the coastal areas are possible. Wind advisories are likely for the coastal regions. Categorical PoPs through the period with some elevated instability resulting in some slight chance to chance of thunder through the region. Only rainfall is expected, though some rain mixed with snow is possible for the Poconos for the end of the period (post-frontal). Heavy rainfall at times is expected. WPC maintains our entire region in a MARGINAL risk for excessive rainfall. It is likely poor drainage and perhaps urban flooding will be observed. More widespread flooding may be in the cards, but will refrain from mentioning more at this time due to lower forecaster confidence/lower mesoscale guidance.
Onshore flow, becoming stronger with time, will be present Saturday night through Sunday night for the coastal regions. A new moon is to occur December 12th. With such onshore flow in proximity to the new moon, coastal flooding is a growing concern for many locations.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Strong building surface high pressure will follow behind the potent cold front crossing through Sunday night. The ensembles and deterministic model guidance support this high pressure then holding a dominate grasp over the region through the long term after continuing to build in Monday. Given the overall synoptic pattern and evolution, forecaster confidence in high pressure remaining in control for much of the long term is high.
Overall, the long term will look to be quiet with the exception of the lingering impacts we see Monday from the cold front (e.g., strong winds and some post-frontal precipitation). PoPS will continue to taper off Monday with no PoPs expected by Monday afternoon. No PoPs are included through the rest of the long term thereafter. Temperatures will run about average for the long term.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Tonight...VFR ceilings, between about 4000-7000 feet AGL, gradually dissipate overnight. Light and variable to calm winds overall.
Moderate confidence.
Friday...VFR. Light and variable winds, becoming south or southeast 4-8 knots. High confidence.
Outlook...
Friday night...Mainly VFR. Some fog development later in the period may cause some restrictions at sites. Light and variable winds.
Moderate confidence.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. Some fog lingering in the morning may cause some restrictions. S/SE winds around 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.
Saturday night...Sub-VFR with fog. Ceilings will develop and drop through the period. S/SE winds 5-10 knots. Low confidence.
Sunday...Sub-VFR. S/SSE winds increasing to 20-25 knots with frequent gusts of 30-35 knots. Rain develops throughout the day, with some heavy rain possible at times. Moderate confidence.
Sunday night...Sub-VFR. S/SSE winds 20-25 knots with frequent gusts of 30-35 knots to begin the period. W/NW winds 15-20 kts with frequent gusts of 25-30 knots after strong cold frontal passage.
Rain, with a period of heavy rain probable. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Moderate confidence.
Monday...Sub-VFR ceilings lingering in morning will give way to mainly VFR conditions by the afternoon. W/NW winds 15-20 knots with frequent gusts of 25-30 knots. Moderate confidence.
Tuesday...VFR. W/SW winds around 10 knots. High confidence.
MARINE
No marine headlines expected through Friday. West to southwest winds 10-20 knots will diminish some overnight, then winds becoming southerly 5-10 knots during Friday.
Outlook...
Friday night through Saturday night...No marine headlines anticipated.
Sunday...Gales certain. SSE winds will increase to 25-30 knots with frequent gusts up to 40-45 knots by late afternoon. Seas will build up to 7-9 feet.
Sunday night...Gales certain; storm force winds possible. SSE winds 30-35 knots with frequent gusts near 45 knots to begin the period.
Winds will diminish to 20-25 knots with 35-40 knots gusts after cold frontal passage before end of period. Seas 8-12 feet.
Monday...SCA conditions certain, gales continuing possible. W winds 20-25 knots with gusts up to 30-35 knots. 7-11 foot seas will diminish to 4-7 feet by late afternoon.
Tuesday...SCA conditions possible, seas may linger around 5 feet.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 946 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
The center of high pressure will slide to our south through Saturday. A warm front lifts across our region Saturday night into Sunday, followed by a potent cold front sweeping through Sunday night. High pressure builds in later Monday and continues into the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 930 PM, moisture remains trapped under a warm air advection induced inversion which was probably enhanced some from the round of light precipitation during the day (keeping the boundary layer colder). Given the cloud cover the temperatures have nearly held steady from an earlier drop since sunset. Satellite imagery trends do show some breaks trying to occurring, with even thicker cloud cover to our west shrinking from the west. As a result, still expect the lower cloud cover to break-up with time overnight however the timing of this is less certain. This will also have some impact on how cold it ends up getting prior to sunrise. Given the observations at this time, held onto a cloudy/mostly cloudy sky longer. It will be chilly tonight with temperatures eventually dropping into the mid/upper 20s to low 30s.
For Friday, heights continue to rise as a ridge axis approaches the Mid-Atlantic. High pressure to the south will gradually slide offshore, fostering in a light south to southeast flow.
This will result in warming and with large scale subsidence with the approaching ridge, skies will be mostly sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s/low 50s, with some spots in Delmarva getting into the mid 50s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Bottom Line...A potent cold front undergoing significant frontogenesis is forecast to impact the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Winds of 25-30 mph with frequent gusts of 35-40 mph are expected; the coastal areas certainly seeing even higher than this. Widespread rainfall, heavy at times, with isolated thunder is expected across the region. Localized flooding is certain for poor drainage and perhaps urban areas, more widespread flooding may be in the cards. A prolonged period of strong onshore flow near the proximity of a new moon will lead to coastal flooding concerns.
The short term will start off Friday night with the region feeling the influence of surface high pressure to our southeast. With time, this surface high pressure will migrate more eastward ahead of an approaching developing surface low pressure system and set of fronts to our southwest. While high pressure influence will still be felt through Saturday, the low pressure and set of fronts will continue to draw near. By the time frame of Saturday night into Sunday morning, the warm front will likely swing through our region while the rather potent cold front continues to approach.
The cold front will look to cross through during Sunday night, bringing a handful of impacts to the region.
Friday night...Conditions are expected to be rather quiet with high pressure influence. Light S/SE flow (5 mph or less) to start the period will likely become light and variable, if not calm, for many areas by the second half of the period. Given the first half of the period is forecast to see mainly clear skies and light flow before more cloud cover builds in, efficient radiational cooling will look to take hold for the first half, and perhaps into the second half, of the period.
This may lead to some patchy fog development across the region.
Saturday...Quiet conditions overall are expected with the region still feeling the influence of surface high pressure. Fog from the overnight period may linger some into the morning.
Otherwise, a mostly cloudy day with continued warm air and moisture advection occurring.
Saturday night...Warm front approaches closer and begins to cross through. Continued warm air and moisture advection, light S/SSE flow for much of the period should allow for widespread fog to develop across the region. Some areas may even see fog development before midnight. Dense fog on the marine zones during the period is possible given the overall pattern.
Otherwise, PoPs start to increase across the region during the second half of the period.
Sunday morning...Warm front continues trek through the region if it hasn't done so beforehand. Increasing pressure gradient begins to be noticed. Potent cold front approaches closer to the region and begins to bring widespread precipitation and gusty winds to the region. Model guidance indicates this front will begin to experience decent frontogenesis during this time frame. With time, pressure gradient will tighten, PoPs will increase from the west.
Sunday afternoon/Sunday night...The most impactful time frame of the event. Model guidance indicates approaching potent cold front will begin to experience significant frontogenesis.
Strong pressure gradient over the region resulting in sustained winds of 25-30 mph with frequent gusts of 35-40 mph. Up to 50 mph gusts over the coastal areas are possible. Wind advisories are likely for the coastal regions. Categorical PoPs through the period with some elevated instability resulting in some slight chance to chance of thunder through the region. Only rainfall is expected, though some rain mixed with snow is possible for the Poconos for the end of the period (post-frontal). Heavy rainfall at times is expected. WPC maintains our entire region in a MARGINAL risk for excessive rainfall. It is likely poor drainage and perhaps urban flooding will be observed. More widespread flooding may be in the cards, but will refrain from mentioning more at this time due to lower forecaster confidence/lower mesoscale guidance.
Onshore flow, becoming stronger with time, will be present Saturday night through Sunday night for the coastal regions. A new moon is to occur December 12th. With such onshore flow in proximity to the new moon, coastal flooding is a growing concern for many locations.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Strong building surface high pressure will follow behind the potent cold front crossing through Sunday night. The ensembles and deterministic model guidance support this high pressure then holding a dominate grasp over the region through the long term after continuing to build in Monday. Given the overall synoptic pattern and evolution, forecaster confidence in high pressure remaining in control for much of the long term is high.
Overall, the long term will look to be quiet with the exception of the lingering impacts we see Monday from the cold front (e.g., strong winds and some post-frontal precipitation). PoPS will continue to taper off Monday with no PoPs expected by Monday afternoon. No PoPs are included through the rest of the long term thereafter. Temperatures will run about average for the long term.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Tonight...VFR ceilings, between about 4000-7000 feet AGL, gradually dissipate overnight. Light and variable to calm winds overall.
Moderate confidence.
Friday...VFR. Light and variable winds, becoming south or southeast 4-8 knots. High confidence.
Outlook...
Friday night...Mainly VFR. Some fog development later in the period may cause some restrictions at sites. Light and variable winds.
Moderate confidence.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. Some fog lingering in the morning may cause some restrictions. S/SE winds around 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.
Saturday night...Sub-VFR with fog. Ceilings will develop and drop through the period. S/SE winds 5-10 knots. Low confidence.
Sunday...Sub-VFR. S/SSE winds increasing to 20-25 knots with frequent gusts of 30-35 knots. Rain develops throughout the day, with some heavy rain possible at times. Moderate confidence.
Sunday night...Sub-VFR. S/SSE winds 20-25 knots with frequent gusts of 30-35 knots to begin the period. W/NW winds 15-20 kts with frequent gusts of 25-30 knots after strong cold frontal passage.
Rain, with a period of heavy rain probable. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Moderate confidence.
Monday...Sub-VFR ceilings lingering in morning will give way to mainly VFR conditions by the afternoon. W/NW winds 15-20 knots with frequent gusts of 25-30 knots. Moderate confidence.
Tuesday...VFR. W/SW winds around 10 knots. High confidence.
MARINE
No marine headlines expected through Friday. West to southwest winds 10-20 knots will diminish some overnight, then winds becoming southerly 5-10 knots during Friday.
Outlook...
Friday night through Saturday night...No marine headlines anticipated.
Sunday...Gales certain. SSE winds will increase to 25-30 knots with frequent gusts up to 40-45 knots by late afternoon. Seas will build up to 7-9 feet.
Sunday night...Gales certain; storm force winds possible. SSE winds 30-35 knots with frequent gusts near 45 knots to begin the period.
Winds will diminish to 20-25 knots with 35-40 knots gusts after cold frontal passage before end of period. Seas 8-12 feet.
Monday...SCA conditions certain, gales continuing possible. W winds 20-25 knots with gusts up to 30-35 knots. 7-11 foot seas will diminish to 4-7 feet by late afternoon.
Tuesday...SCA conditions possible, seas may linger around 5 feet.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMTN MARTIN STATE,MD | 12 sm | 16 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 41°F | 36°F | 81% | 30.07 | |
| KBWI BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTL THURGOOD MARSHALL,MD | 22 sm | 12 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 43°F | 30°F | 61% | 30.04 |
Wind History from MTN
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Tolchester Beach, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tolchester Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:34 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 01:59 AM EST 1.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 08:28 AM EST 0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:34 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 02:50 PM EST 1.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:41 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 09:18 PM EST 0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:34 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 01:59 AM EST 1.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 08:28 AM EST 0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:34 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 02:50 PM EST 1.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:41 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 09:18 PM EST 0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Tolchester Beach, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.8 |
| 1 am |
| 1 |
| 2 am |
| 1 |
| 3 am |
| 1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.8 |
| 5 am |
| 0.6 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0 |
| 9 am |
| 0 |
| 10 am |
| 0.2 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:30 AM EST 0.43 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:35 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 03:06 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:31 AM EST -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 09:38 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:08 PM EST 0.87 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:35 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:41 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:42 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 07:41 PM EST -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:00 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:30 AM EST 0.43 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:35 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 03:06 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:31 AM EST -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 09:38 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:08 PM EST 0.87 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:35 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:41 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:42 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 07:41 PM EST -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:00 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.4 |
| 2 am |
| 0.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0 |
| 4 am |
| -0.3 |
| 5 am |
| -0.5 |
| 6 am |
| -0.7 |
| 7 am |
| -0.7 |
| 8 am |
| -0.5 |
| 9 am |
| -0.2 |
| 10 am |
| 0.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| -0 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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