Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tolchester, MD
April 18, 2024 4:37 AM EDT (08:37 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:21 AM Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 1:52 PM Moonset 3:14 AM |
ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 144 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Overnight - NE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until early morning. Waves 1 ft.
Fri - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night - NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sun - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon - N winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming sw. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ500 144 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a stationary front will linger nearby tonight before a cold front tracks through on Thursday morning. A stronger cold front approaches the region on Friday into Saturday morning. High pressure gradually pushes in from the west by late in the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed at times from Thursday into the weekend.
a stationary front will linger nearby tonight before a cold front tracks through on Thursday morning. A stronger cold front approaches the region on Friday into Saturday morning. High pressure gradually pushes in from the west by late in the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed at times from Thursday into the weekend.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 180818 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 418 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A stationary boundary will remain situated across the area today as weak low pressure meanders offshore. A cold front will pass through the region early on Saturday with high pressure building in its wake. High pressure will largely be in control through Tuesday before another chance of precipitation returns Tuesday night into Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure over Quebec and New England with ridging extending down into the northern Mid-Atlantic is associated with a stubborn, cool and stable airmass that will generally hold in place today and tonight. An occluding low pressure system tracking across the Great Lakes has been advecting warm air aloft over the cooler low-level air, but that low is beginning to transfer to a developing coastal low off the NJ coast this morning. That will only result in strengthening NE to N onshore flow today. Even while some warmer air south of a stationary front has managed to creep into parts of the Delmarva, do not expect that air to make much progress northward. In many portions of our region, especially north and east of Trenton, temperatures will stay very steady through the day today, in the upper 40s and low 50s. While a mid- level shortwave is passing through early this morning, keeping the remnant of some fading convection alive in the form of some light showers in southeast PA, expect those to continue to fade while lifting across northern NJ. Drizzle may be the predominant form of precipitation across portions of the NJ shore, northern NJ, and some of the ridges across SE PA this morning, perhaps even lingering into this afternoon. That will be accompanied by some areas of fog this morning, though that should not be too dense outside of the Pocono Plateau and adjacent ridge-lines. This drizzle should not result in too much in the way of rainfall; likely less than 5 hundredths of an inch today. Other areas, particularly into the lower Delaware Valley southward, should stay mainly dry today. A raw northeast breeze will add to the very un-spring- like feel today, especially along the shore.
Southern Delaware may still manage to hit 70F, especially with any breaks of sun, but that will be the exception in our area.
Tonight may still see some patchy drizzle, mainly toward the northern NJ shore, but overall expect dry conditions elsewhere, with overcast skies, and easing northeast winds perhaps giving way to some patchy fog toward morning. Low temperatures will be several degrees cooler than the previous night in most spots; mainly in the low to mid 40s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Continued cloudiness and cool conditions will persist through Friday as the area remains wedged between a meandering low offshore and cold front approaching from the west. High pressure to the north and east looks to stay long enough that most of Friday should be dry, although rain chances will increase later in the day and peak on Friday night as the cold front passes through. Overall, PoPs on Friday night will be between 20-40%, with greater chances further west as atmospheric profiles are drier to the east. Temps on Friday will be mostly in the 50s to around 60, with lows in the 40s to near 50 on Friday night.
Following the frontal passage, Canadian high pressure will drop south into the High Plains on Saturday, while nosing its ridge axis across the Eastern US. Other than some lingering showers early on Saturday, most of the day will be dry with clearing skies. Despite the frontal passage, the front really lacks any surge of "cold" air.
So, while drier air pushes into the region, temps will actually be quite mild on Saturday as our boundary layer looks to be very-well mixed with 850mb temps near 5-6C. Bringing this down to the surface dry adiabatically, should result in highs at the surface in the mid to upper 60s, possibly reaching 70 degrees in some spots. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions will continue through Saturday night with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
For the most part, the long term period will generally be tranquil and quite seasonable, but will have to monitor a couple disturbances along the way.
On Sunday and into Sunday night, will have to monitor the potential for some showers to our south. This will be associated with a stalled boundary sitting off the Southeast coast where a weak area of low pressure develops along it before skirting out to sea.
Overall, any chance of showers looks to be minimal (up to a 30% chance), and only as far north as Cape May at this time. The remainder of the area will be dry despite increasing cloudiness.
High pressure then firmly remains in control on Monday and into Tuesday. After this time, will have to watch back to the west as a cold front will be approaching during the Tuesday night into Wednesday timeframe. This is likely the next chance for some widespread showers to occur across the area. In terms of temperatures, we look to remain remain quite seasonable through the middle of next week.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Today...LIFR ceilings and IFR VSBY for much of the region with light mist or fog this morning. Both CIGs and VSBYs should gradually lift heading into this afternoon, but the timing and extent of improvement is not certain. Some drizzle may be present early this morning, especially N and E of TTN. Winds mainly NE 6-12 kt, but stronger and gusty along the NJ shore.
Low confidence in CIGs /VSBY today.
Tonight...Ceilings around 010 this evening may drop back into the IFR category at times, but the overall forecast is for MVFR ceilings to hold steady or even improve somewhat toward Friday morning. VSBY mainly unrestricted, but would not rule out some MVFR light mist or fog in the evening. Winds mainly NE 4-8 kt.
Low confidence.
Outlook...
Friday through Friday night...Sub-VFR likely with periods of low clouds with rain showers especially during Friday night. SE winds around 5-10 kt during the day, becoming SW winds around 5 kt or less at night. Moderate confidence.
Saturday through Monday night...VFR expected. Mostly clear skies on Saturday, mostly cloudy skies on Sunday, and clear skies returning on Monday. W-NW winds expected through the period. High confidence.
Tuesday...VFR early with sub-VFR possible late with rain showers. S winds. Low confidence.
MARINE
Low pressure developing off the mid-Atlantic coast today, combined with high pressure still holding across New England will result in a tightening pressure gradient and increasing NE/N winds expanding down the NJ coast, eventually reaching Delaware by this evening. Those winds will peak with 25-30 kt gusts, prompting Small Craft Advisories over all our ocean zones, while seas build to 5-7 ft. As the low pressure system pulls away tonight, NE winds will gradually ease toward 15 kt, but seas will linger above 5 or 6 ft into Friday morning.
Outlook...
Friday through Friday night...The Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for all ocean waters through 6 PM Friday due to seas around 5 feet. Seas may linger above SCA criteria into Friday night with a chance for showers. No headlines are in effect for the Delaware Bay.
Saturday through Tuesday...Other than some showers possible on Saturday, fair weather is anticipated. No marine headlines are expected.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ450.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ451.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ452-453.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ454-455.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 418 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A stationary boundary will remain situated across the area today as weak low pressure meanders offshore. A cold front will pass through the region early on Saturday with high pressure building in its wake. High pressure will largely be in control through Tuesday before another chance of precipitation returns Tuesday night into Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure over Quebec and New England with ridging extending down into the northern Mid-Atlantic is associated with a stubborn, cool and stable airmass that will generally hold in place today and tonight. An occluding low pressure system tracking across the Great Lakes has been advecting warm air aloft over the cooler low-level air, but that low is beginning to transfer to a developing coastal low off the NJ coast this morning. That will only result in strengthening NE to N onshore flow today. Even while some warmer air south of a stationary front has managed to creep into parts of the Delmarva, do not expect that air to make much progress northward. In many portions of our region, especially north and east of Trenton, temperatures will stay very steady through the day today, in the upper 40s and low 50s. While a mid- level shortwave is passing through early this morning, keeping the remnant of some fading convection alive in the form of some light showers in southeast PA, expect those to continue to fade while lifting across northern NJ. Drizzle may be the predominant form of precipitation across portions of the NJ shore, northern NJ, and some of the ridges across SE PA this morning, perhaps even lingering into this afternoon. That will be accompanied by some areas of fog this morning, though that should not be too dense outside of the Pocono Plateau and adjacent ridge-lines. This drizzle should not result in too much in the way of rainfall; likely less than 5 hundredths of an inch today. Other areas, particularly into the lower Delaware Valley southward, should stay mainly dry today. A raw northeast breeze will add to the very un-spring- like feel today, especially along the shore.
Southern Delaware may still manage to hit 70F, especially with any breaks of sun, but that will be the exception in our area.
Tonight may still see some patchy drizzle, mainly toward the northern NJ shore, but overall expect dry conditions elsewhere, with overcast skies, and easing northeast winds perhaps giving way to some patchy fog toward morning. Low temperatures will be several degrees cooler than the previous night in most spots; mainly in the low to mid 40s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Continued cloudiness and cool conditions will persist through Friday as the area remains wedged between a meandering low offshore and cold front approaching from the west. High pressure to the north and east looks to stay long enough that most of Friday should be dry, although rain chances will increase later in the day and peak on Friday night as the cold front passes through. Overall, PoPs on Friday night will be between 20-40%, with greater chances further west as atmospheric profiles are drier to the east. Temps on Friday will be mostly in the 50s to around 60, with lows in the 40s to near 50 on Friday night.
Following the frontal passage, Canadian high pressure will drop south into the High Plains on Saturday, while nosing its ridge axis across the Eastern US. Other than some lingering showers early on Saturday, most of the day will be dry with clearing skies. Despite the frontal passage, the front really lacks any surge of "cold" air.
So, while drier air pushes into the region, temps will actually be quite mild on Saturday as our boundary layer looks to be very-well mixed with 850mb temps near 5-6C. Bringing this down to the surface dry adiabatically, should result in highs at the surface in the mid to upper 60s, possibly reaching 70 degrees in some spots. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions will continue through Saturday night with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
For the most part, the long term period will generally be tranquil and quite seasonable, but will have to monitor a couple disturbances along the way.
On Sunday and into Sunday night, will have to monitor the potential for some showers to our south. This will be associated with a stalled boundary sitting off the Southeast coast where a weak area of low pressure develops along it before skirting out to sea.
Overall, any chance of showers looks to be minimal (up to a 30% chance), and only as far north as Cape May at this time. The remainder of the area will be dry despite increasing cloudiness.
High pressure then firmly remains in control on Monday and into Tuesday. After this time, will have to watch back to the west as a cold front will be approaching during the Tuesday night into Wednesday timeframe. This is likely the next chance for some widespread showers to occur across the area. In terms of temperatures, we look to remain remain quite seasonable through the middle of next week.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Today...LIFR ceilings and IFR VSBY for much of the region with light mist or fog this morning. Both CIGs and VSBYs should gradually lift heading into this afternoon, but the timing and extent of improvement is not certain. Some drizzle may be present early this morning, especially N and E of TTN. Winds mainly NE 6-12 kt, but stronger and gusty along the NJ shore.
Low confidence in CIGs /VSBY today.
Tonight...Ceilings around 010 this evening may drop back into the IFR category at times, but the overall forecast is for MVFR ceilings to hold steady or even improve somewhat toward Friday morning. VSBY mainly unrestricted, but would not rule out some MVFR light mist or fog in the evening. Winds mainly NE 4-8 kt.
Low confidence.
Outlook...
Friday through Friday night...Sub-VFR likely with periods of low clouds with rain showers especially during Friday night. SE winds around 5-10 kt during the day, becoming SW winds around 5 kt or less at night. Moderate confidence.
Saturday through Monday night...VFR expected. Mostly clear skies on Saturday, mostly cloudy skies on Sunday, and clear skies returning on Monday. W-NW winds expected through the period. High confidence.
Tuesday...VFR early with sub-VFR possible late with rain showers. S winds. Low confidence.
MARINE
Low pressure developing off the mid-Atlantic coast today, combined with high pressure still holding across New England will result in a tightening pressure gradient and increasing NE/N winds expanding down the NJ coast, eventually reaching Delaware by this evening. Those winds will peak with 25-30 kt gusts, prompting Small Craft Advisories over all our ocean zones, while seas build to 5-7 ft. As the low pressure system pulls away tonight, NE winds will gradually ease toward 15 kt, but seas will linger above 5 or 6 ft into Friday morning.
Outlook...
Friday through Friday night...The Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for all ocean waters through 6 PM Friday due to seas around 5 feet. Seas may linger above SCA criteria into Friday night with a chance for showers. No headlines are in effect for the Delaware Bay.
Saturday through Tuesday...Other than some showers possible on Saturday, fair weather is anticipated. No marine headlines are expected.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ450.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ451.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ452-453.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ454-455.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMTN MARTIN STATE,MD | 12 sm | 2.6 hrs | calm | 5 sm | Overcast | Mist | 59°F | 59°F | 100% | 29.90 |
| KBWI BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTL THURGOOD MARSHALL,MD | 22 sm | 43 min | NNE 03 | 5 sm | Overcast | Mist | 59°F | 57°F | 94% | 29.88 |
Tide / Current for Tolchester Beach, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tolchester Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:02 AM EDT 1.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:14 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 06:23 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 10:20 AM EDT 0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:51 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 04:51 PM EDT 1.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:45 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:56 PM EDT 0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:02 AM EDT 1.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:14 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 06:23 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 10:20 AM EDT 0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:51 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 04:51 PM EDT 1.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:45 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:56 PM EDT 0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Tolchester Beach, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.6 |
| 1 am |
| 0.8 |
| 2 am |
| 1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.2 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 1.2 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.9 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.4 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:24 AM EDT 0.62 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:14 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:33 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:23 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:22 AM EDT -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:10 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:25 PM EDT 0.67 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:52 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:28 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:46 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:48 PM EDT -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:24 AM EDT 0.62 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:14 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 05:33 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:23 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:22 AM EDT -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:10 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:25 PM EDT 0.67 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:52 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:28 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:46 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:48 PM EDT -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.5 |
| 2 am |
| 0.6 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.2 |
| 6 am |
| -0.1 |
| 7 am |
| -0.4 |
| 8 am |
| -0.5 |
| 9 am |
| -0.5 |
| 10 am |
| -0.3 |
| 11 am |
| -0.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.4 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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