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FXUS61 KILN 040042 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 742 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Occasional chances for precipitation will continue through mid week as a series of upper level disturbances move through the Ohio Valley.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Scattered showers will continue through this afternoon before tapering off from the west heading into this evening as the mid level short wave moves off to our east. Southwest winds will also remain gusty this afternoon but they will decrease this evening and overnight as the pressure gradient slackens off. The models are once again hinting at some possible breaks developing across our south tonight. This will correspond with a lull in the winds, so if breaks do occur, some fog development will be possible late, mainly for areas along and south of the Ohio River. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 30s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A mid level short wave will move quickly east across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the day on Monday with an associated surface low sliding just off to our south. This will lead to a developing chance for showers across our south Monday morning, with the best chance being across our far southwest where will go with high end chance pops. The pcpn should then taper off from the west Monday afternoon. Highs on Monday will range form the lower 40s north to the mid and upper 40s in the south.

Short wave ridging will shift quickly east across our area Monday night before yet another mid level short wave approaches from the west late. It looks like the bulk of any pcpn associated with this next short wave should generally hold off through the night time period. Will therefore just allow for some slight chance pops into the far west late. Low level thermal profiles would support perhaps a little bit of snow mixing in with any pcpn that does develop across our northwest late. Lows Monday night will be in the low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Tuesday starts with a weak surface low tracking sw and skimming southwestern CWA. This low is underneath a l/w trough and rain showers are expected to begin in the later morning and taper off from west-east in the evening. With highs only tipping into the lower 40s, some snow may mix in in the morning, and then any rain should change to light snow, which could take a little further past midnight to end in the southeast.

No measurable precip is expected Wednesday, but flurries could be found through the course of the day, particularly through early afternoon. The available low level moisture and cold advection should be enough to overturn the air and spit out scattered patches of light snow/flurries.

Wednesday high temperatures were lowered to the NBM5% which kept it within about 4 degrees from NBM and earlier forecast. Felt the low end of guidance is the way to go here as h8 thicknesses only support upper 30s using DAY as a proxy. Increasing thicknesses with building high pressure later in the day will not overcome the cold air in place.

Return flow picks up for the end of the week and temperatures rise to near 50 Thursday and mid 50s Friday with overnight lows in the lower 40s Thursday night and mid-upper 40s Friday night. Expect warming trend to continue into Saturday, but models exhibit a strong variation in the overall pattern. This variation increases through Sunday and into next week.

System coming into the region Fri night/Saturday could be a decent rain maker for southeast CWA. Did not make any changes from NBM for this day given a wide range of potential outcomes.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Westerly mid level flow with initial shortwave moving away from the area into the Eastern Great Lakes. Showers have dissipated and moved out of the area leaving ocnl MVFR ceiling mainly across the northern TAF sites.

In between systems - expect clouds to improve and even scatter out for a period across the south prior to increasing late ahead of the next shortwave.

If the clouds scatter out, some fog development will be likely at the southern TAF sites and therefore will continue allow for some MVFR vsbys later tonight into Monday morning. Otherwise, generally expect an improvement this evening with MVFR cigs redeveloping late tonight into Monday ahead of the next shortwave.

This fast moving short wave will drop down through the mid Ohio Valley on Monday. Showers associated with this may affect the southern TAF sites Monday morning and then ending by early afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible at times through Tuesday. MVFR ceilings may linger into Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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