Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Highland Holiday, OH

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Mid level ridge axis will shift east tonight. This will allow low pressure over the upper Mississippi River Valley to progress east into the western Great Lakes. For this evening, southerly flow in the low levels can be expected. It should start our mostly clear. For the overnight period, moist low level ascent will develop to our west in association with a low level jet. Some mid and high level clouds will increase from the west at first. Then, enough lift and moisture may produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms in our west toward morning. Sustained southerly winds will increase toward sunrise along with some gusts in the 20 to 30 mph possible across western areas (generally north of the Ohio River). After a warm day today, temperatures will remain warm overnight, mainly in the 60s due to wind and increasing dewpoints.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Focus on Tuesday will be the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.

Low pressure associated with a mid level s/wv will move from the western Great Lakes to southeast Canada. Its attendant cold front will then move southeast into our region Tuesday night. Ahead of this front, it appears that a mid level s/wv, likely an MCV, will eject from the southern plains into our region during Tuesday afternoon.
This feature will combine with a prefrontal trough and its low level convergence field to produce showers and thunderstorms in an increasing unstable environment. There are some coverage and timing issues amongst the CAMs. However, the predominate solution is for showers and thunderstorms to get going across our west from late morning into early afternoon, progressing east through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Models suggest at least moderate MLCAPE will be available for storms to work with (max around 1500 J/kg).
This instability will be found in an environment with at least moderate shear, leading to the potential for organized convection.
The primary severe weather threats will be damaging winds, especially if convection can organize into bowing segments. Large hail will also be a concern, especially if a few discrete storms can get going before the convection conglomerates. It will be breezy outside of storms with wind gusts ranging from 25 mph south to 35 mph north.
Highs will range from 75 to 80.

For Tuesday night, any ongoing convection should shift to the east and south into the evening. The actual cold front will then move southward overnight. Some shower/storm activity is expected with this front, but coverage should be much less, and overall will wane overnight. The front is forecast to make it to or just south of our southern CWFA border by Wednesday morning. Lows will vary, ranging from the upper 40s north to the lower 60s south.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
An active weather pattern is expected through early Friday... then dry weather is in store through the weekend into early next week.

A frontal boundary will be stalled across our northern Kentucky counties early Wednesday. The front will begin to lift north in the evening and overnight, bringing a return to 60 degree dewpoints heading into Thursday. This warm front will also keep at least scattered convection in the forecast on Wednesday. However, by Thursday, we will see a stronger disturbance lift northeast toward the Ohio Valley. This will bring widespread showers and storms Thursday, followed by a cold frontal passage late Thursday night into Friday morning.

After a reinforcing disturbance drops through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley later on Friday, surface high pressure will build in for the weekend.

Temperatures will begin the period above normal before dropping a bit below normal Friday and Saturday. Warmer temperatures will return Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through this evening, southerly flow in the low levels will begin to increase across the region as a mid level ridge axis builds northward into the central Great Lakes and middle Ohio Valley. VFR conditions will prevail with southeast to south winds varying from about 8 to 12 knots.

For overnight, the mid level ridge axis will shift off to the east.
Some mid and high level clouds will begin to increase from the west ahead of the next weather system. At the same time, a low level jet will increase and move into the region. Southerly winds at the surface will increase overnight with some gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range possible along and north of the Ohio River by 12Z. The low level jet will also bring a period of LLWS. Moist flow will be increasing as well, and in the WAA, a chance of showers and thunderstorms may encroach western terminals by 12Z.

On Tuesday, low pressure will move northeast from the western Great Lakes into southeast Canada. Its attendant cold front is forecast to move southeast into our region. At this time, it appears that an embedded mid level disturbance will combine with a prefrontal trough axis to become the impetus/focus for shower and thunderstorm development. This activity should increase in coverage across western areas between 16Z and 18Z, and then it should propagate east/southeast through the afternoon. PROB30s have been used with predominate thunderstorms beginning in the west around 18Z. It will be breezy with south to southwest winds 12 to 18 knots with gusts between 25 and 30 knots. Synoptic winds should decrease toward evening as the low moves farther away and the pressure gradient decreases as well as decoupling of winds aloft.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms decreasing in probability Tuesday night.
Some MVFR ceilings may develop Tuesday night into the first part of Wednesday. Thunderstorms possible Wednesday into Wednesday night.
MVFR/IFR conditions likely Thursday into Thursday night along with a chance of thunderstorms. MVFR conditions possible Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.