Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Highland Holiday, OH

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 8:22PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 8:45 PM EDT (00:45 UTC) Moonrise 10:12PMMoonset 10:26AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Highland Holiday, OH
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location: 39.21, -83.45     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 202326
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
726 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019

Several mid upper level disturbances will move east through the
region through Thursday, with a slow-moving surface frontal
boundary drifting south during this time period. With seasonably
warm and humid conditions persisting through Thursday night,
periods of scattered showers and storms will be possible before
drier conditions filter in area-wide for the upcoming weekend.

Slightly below normal temperatures are expected for this weekend
with generally drier and sunnier conditions. A few isolated
storms may be possible by late Sunday afternoon.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
A corridor of isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed
in a moderately to highly unstable environment entrenched
across the heart of the iln fa. This activity continues to
blossom out ahead of a slowly-decaying MCS with attendant mcv
noted on mosaic radar further to the north west in north-central

For the rest of the afternoon, the corridor of scattered storms
currently approximately coincident with the i-75 corridor will
continue to drift east-northeast as additional isolated to
scattered activity develops ahead of the decaying complex
tracking south-southeast through central southern indiana. While
the mcs-generated convection is generally moving into a
favorably unstable environment characterized by MLCAPE in excess
of 2500j kg and dcape of 1000-1200j kg, the leading edge
continues to push further away from the MCV itself --
essentially outrunning the source that has kept it going for
this long. Nevertheless, this activity is likely to trend a bit
further south of southeast through mid late afternoon -- likely
grazing and impacting only the tri-state area and points
south west of this particular area. Elsewhere, any isolated to
scattered activity will be more pulsy airmass-driven opposed to
along the leading edge of a cohesive line mcs. It is the pulsy
type activity that will likely pose the greatest strong damaging
wind risk through early evening -- especially coincident with an
environment that will support downward acceleration of healthier
cores. Even with this said -- the highly unstable environment,
with good instability aloft, will also support instances of
large hail with the better stronger cores.

The best coverage of storms will gradually shift from western
oh eastern in northern ky from mid-afternoon through central oh
and northeast ky by early this evening. There seems to be
fairly good agreement in the short-term hi-res cams showing a
downtick in convection near past sunset as the environment
becomes worked over and subsidence behind the main mcs
overspreads the iln fa. Feel pretty confident in a trend toward
drier conditions by past sunset this evening, with just a few
isolated showers possible past this time period as some midlevel
energy continues to propagate through the mean northwest flow in
the area. However, as previously mentioned, subsidence behind
the main MCS structure diving south-southwest through central
ky could be enough to stifle additional isolated shower activity
further north in an environment that will be fairly used up by
late evening into the overnight.

Highs for today have reached into the lower 90s but have likely
already plateaued due to the overspreading of
clouds precipitation through the remainder of the local area
over the next several hours.

Some light fog will be possible late overnight with the nearly
saturated low level environment. However, the pressure gradient
will not completely relax -- lending itself to some uncertainty
in exactly where and how widespread any fog development will be.

Therefore, have not included in the official fcst although
certainly observational trends will be monitored closely to see
if this may eventually be warranted.

Lows tonight will bottom out in the upper 60s and lower 70s

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
After any fog stratus lifts dissipates by late morning on
Wednesday, anticipate some diurnally-enhanced CU to develop in
the region.

Although the frontal boundary will still be stretched in an e-w
fashion across the northern ohio valley on Wednesday, the
absence of any focused mid upper level disturbance and or source
for forcing is likely to keep an diurnally-driven activity to
mainly isolated in nature. The approach of a disturbance by late
evening may help spread some higher chance pops into the far
western iln fa by late evening into the overnight hours --
especially as we near the end of the short term period by
Thursday morning. However, with a relatively strong cap in
place, anticipate that coverage will be far less than is the
case today.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be on the
increase from the west towards sunrise Thursday as more S w
energy ejects east through west-central and central ohio valley.

Highs on Wednesday will again top out around 90 degrees near the
ohio river and mainly mid to upper 80s near north of the i-70
corridor. Heat indices south of the i-70 corridor will again be
in the mid upper 90s. Lows Wednesday night will fall into the
mid upper 60s in the north to lower 70s south of the ohio river.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Period begins with a cold front around the ohio river. The front
will provide convergence and lift in the southern part of the fa,
giving the best pops around and south of the ohio river. Went will
likely pops in the far south.

The front will continue to sag south Thursday night into Friday.

This will keep chance pops in the region for Friday.

By Saturday, high pressure will be settling in across the great
lakes. This will bring cooler and drier conditions.

On Sunday, an inverted trof will bring increasing humidity back into
the region along with a chance of thunderstorms to northern kentucky
and the scioto valley.

Thunderstorm chances will increase Monday and Tuesday as
heat and instability increases.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
Chances for thunderstorms this evening have diminished, leaving
just a few showers left in the area. The main concern overnight
will be the development of MVFR visibilities and MVFR ifr
ceilings. The lowered ceilings appear most likely to develop at
kday (where ifr is quite possible) and kiln kcmh klck (where
MVFR is most likely). Some visibility restrictions are possible
at all TAF sites, though ifr visibilities appear generally
unlikely as of now.

Any visibility or ceiling restrictions should improve by 15z,
with quiet conditions expected heading into the afternoon, and
wsw winds generally at or below 10 knots. A chance of pop-up
showers and storms is in the forecast for late afternoon, but
this will be handled with a vcsh for now, as storm coverage
should be fairly light.

Outlook... Thunderstorms will remain possible at times through
Friday afternoon.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Kc
near term... Kc
short term... Kc
long term... Sites
aviation... Hatzos

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, Airborne Airpark Airport, OH24 mi1.9 hrsW 1010.00 miFair73°F66°F79%1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILN

Wind History from ILN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE3Calm--------E3CalmE3--CalmSE3SE5--SE4S3S7S7SW6N10----W10W4
1 day agoS5S6----NW3--NE4----CalmSE3S4S5S4--S6S634--S3SE3SE3E3
2 days agoS4S4S4S4S7SW5S3--CalmS3CalmSW3----SW7SW6S6SW9S11S11SW7S9S8S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.