Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lansing, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Broad upper trough over the Southwest, coupled with broad upper ridging over the eastern CONUS, is setting up a steady southerly fetch of moisture streaming into the Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley. Widespread convection is ongoing at 07Z from western Texas into southwestern Missouri as a result of this pattern and in the vicinity of a stationary front draped across the region. A large convective system moving through Arkansas and southern Missouri is spreading widespread rainfall into the southern portions of the forecast area early this morning. As this MCS shifts east this morning, the northern precipitation shield will shift eastward with it, generally staying south of I-70 this morning. As the day progresses, the main upper trough will begin to move into the southern Plains. As this is occurring, the region will move into the right rear quadrant of the upper jet.
This will lead to stronger ascent and more widespread showers and storms should develop this afternoon. Instability will be limited through the day for most of the area but enough instability may build into the southeastern portions of the forecast area that a few strong to marginally severe storms look possible. The upper shortwave slowly moves east of the area by Thursday evening, with decreasing precipitation chances as a result.

Friday, a clipper-like system will move from the Northern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi valley. This will bring another quick shot of showers and possibly some storms to the area. Instability looks limited so the threat of severe weather is low. But with wet-bulb zero temperatures near 6000 ft, with several hundred J/kg of would not be surprised to get some small hail out of any storms that do develop.

Quieter and drier weather moves in for the weekend with upper ridging building over the middle of the country. Temperatures look generally seasonal with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s Saturday and the low to mid 70s on Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 610 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Low confidence forecast for onset of lower ceilings. The trend should be for ceilings to lower over the next few hours as low clouds shift north. High-level clouds from ongoing convection south of the region inhibits tracking this northward movement.
Generally have ceilings falling into the MVFR category between 14Z and 15Z. Confidence is also not great with regards to thunderstorm chances this afternoon. Have added -TSRA to a PROB30 group between 19-20Z through 23-00Z. It's possible this activity is just showers though. Winds will be light throughout the forecast.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.