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FXUS63 KEAX 102218 AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 418 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Discussion
Issued at 217 PM CST SUN DEC 10 2023

Key messages:

- Dry conditions with near to slightly above normal temperatures expected through the forecast period.

Discussion:

A upper level trough has swung through the this morning leaving the are under northwest flow aloft with a surface ridge of high pressure over the area. Weak mixing will keep highs a seasonable upper 30s to mid 40s this afternoon. Tonight into Monday a weak upper shortwave will drop south through the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley forcing a weak cold front into the area. With a lack of cold air behind this front and height rises on Monday, temperatures will actually warm into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Surface high pressure will build back into the area on Tuesday providing another day of weak mixing, This will keep highs in the upper 30s north to near 50 south despite zonal flow aloft. Tuesday night into Wednesday a upper level trough will dig through the Rockies into the Four Corners region. This will provide weak upstream upper level ridging over the area. This will aid in temperatures on Wednesday rising into the lower 40s to lower 50s despite surface high pressure still providing weak mixing over the area. Thursday the upper level trough over the Four Corners area will dig further south into New Mexico amplifying upper level ridging over the local area. This will aid in highs rising into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

The two systems that looked to possibly bring rain to the area Friday/Saturday are now not expected produce precipitation for our area. The upper trough over New Mexico is now forecast by the GFS and EC to track across Texas and remain well south of the area. The upper level trough that was expected to dig into the area from northern Plains on yesterday's model runs now is much weaker and remain north of the area. Consequently, the area will remain dry and mild with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s forecast for next weekend.

Aviation
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 417 PM CST SUN DEC 10 2023

VFR conditions expected with a light southerly wind through the overnight becoming westerly as a weak trough moves through the region Monday morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,